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| For Labour, a London mayor is essential. Defeat is unthinkable | For Labour, a London mayor is essential. Defeat is unthinkable |
| (6 days later) | |
| The images that define Labour’s 2015 general election night are largely negative: Ed Balls’s strained smile; young candidates holding back tears; the faces of Douglas Alexander, Jim Murphy and many more amid SNP exhilaration. But that wasn’t the whole story. In parts of London, television cameras zoomed in on very different scenes, capturing the dejected faces of Conservative rather than Labour MPs who had failed to share in the upbeat national results. So, the capital offered Labour a glimmer of hope. Now the party is embroiled in a leadership election that has defied expectations, providing a fascinating story that has filled television bulletins and covered newspaper front pages. On Saturday 12 September, all eyes will be on that result. | The images that define Labour’s 2015 general election night are largely negative: Ed Balls’s strained smile; young candidates holding back tears; the faces of Douglas Alexander, Jim Murphy and many more amid SNP exhilaration. But that wasn’t the whole story. In parts of London, television cameras zoomed in on very different scenes, capturing the dejected faces of Conservative rather than Labour MPs who had failed to share in the upbeat national results. So, the capital offered Labour a glimmer of hope. Now the party is embroiled in a leadership election that has defied expectations, providing a fascinating story that has filled television bulletins and covered newspaper front pages. On Saturday 12 September, all eyes will be on that result. |
| But a very significant – and arguably more pressing – challenge will be kicked off one day earlier. On the Friday, Labour will elect a mayoral candidate for London, a candidate who will try to capitalise on the general election results and wrest back City Hall after eight years of Conservative control under Boris Johnson. Some think it will be a shoo-in for Labour, pointing to the party’s 2014 borough election results in which they secured a 10-point lead over the Tories. But they are wrong. There will be no Boris factor this time round (the most likely Conservative opponent is Richmond Park MP Zac Goldsmith), but winning London remains a daunting task. | |
| The capital may not seem entirely relevant to the UK as a whole, but for Labour this is a national issue. It knows that victory in London could rally the troops. But defeat would be a political disaster, extinguishing a single, lingering hope and consigning the party to a decade of major defeats. | The capital may not seem entirely relevant to the UK as a whole, but for Labour this is a national issue. It knows that victory in London could rally the troops. But defeat would be a political disaster, extinguishing a single, lingering hope and consigning the party to a decade of major defeats. |
| For Labour, the capital is a national issue. Victory could rally the troops. And defeat would be a political disaster | For Labour, the capital is a national issue. Victory could rally the troops. And defeat would be a political disaster |
| A senior party source told me that the importance of the contest could not be overstated. He compared it to a football cup final that could haul the party up from its knees. “If you are a team that continually loses games then that fuels poor morale and poor performance until you go on to the pitch expecting to lose. It is amazing what a big win can do.” He wants the mayoral contest to culminate with images of cheering Labour activists with red rosettes pinned to their tops, helping to lift the fog of misery that has descended over the party following the election slump. If they can win in London, runs this logic, maybe they can then make inroads into English marginals and begin a recovery in Scotland. He said he believed his party would win, arguing that although it will be a tough fight, “Zac is no Boris”. | A senior party source told me that the importance of the contest could not be overstated. He compared it to a football cup final that could haul the party up from its knees. “If you are a team that continually loses games then that fuels poor morale and poor performance until you go on to the pitch expecting to lose. It is amazing what a big win can do.” He wants the mayoral contest to culminate with images of cheering Labour activists with red rosettes pinned to their tops, helping to lift the fog of misery that has descended over the party following the election slump. If they can win in London, runs this logic, maybe they can then make inroads into English marginals and begin a recovery in Scotland. He said he believed his party would win, arguing that although it will be a tough fight, “Zac is no Boris”. |
| But he also admitted there wasn’t any room for complacency. After all, while it is true that Labour should be capable of taking back City Hall next year, there are lots of reasons it may not. These begin with some of the presumed reasons why Labour has done well in the capital. It is at least in part, it’s thought, down to a younger and more diverse electorate. But Deborah Mattinson, director of the research company BritainThinks, said: “Scotland shows Labour is dead in the water if it ever assumes a group of voters are its own.” She said London was winnable but nothing like a “shoo-in”. | But he also admitted there wasn’t any room for complacency. After all, while it is true that Labour should be capable of taking back City Hall next year, there are lots of reasons it may not. These begin with some of the presumed reasons why Labour has done well in the capital. It is at least in part, it’s thought, down to a younger and more diverse electorate. But Deborah Mattinson, director of the research company BritainThinks, said: “Scotland shows Labour is dead in the water if it ever assumes a group of voters are its own.” She said London was winnable but nothing like a “shoo-in”. |
| For one thing, demographics are changing. “London is young but for how long?” she asked, pointing to the numbers of older, better-off people moving into the capital. As for black and ethnic minority groups, they are not “tribal”, she added, with evidence that some of them, for example Hindus and Sikhs, are already shifting towards the Conservatives. That follows a concerted effort by David Cameron’s party, which is likely to continue and expand to other groups. | For one thing, demographics are changing. “London is young but for how long?” she asked, pointing to the numbers of older, better-off people moving into the capital. As for black and ethnic minority groups, they are not “tribal”, she added, with evidence that some of them, for example Hindus and Sikhs, are already shifting towards the Conservatives. That follows a concerted effort by David Cameron’s party, which is likely to continue and expand to other groups. |
| One of the Tory MPs to lose his London seat – Nick de Bois in Enfield – has long called on his party to do more to reach out to minority voters. In an online article after the election, he argued Conservatives had made headway with Asian voters, but not other ethnic minorities. He also used the piece to criticise his party’s language with regards to the public sector, arguing that it left policemen and women, health workers and teachers with a “deep-seated sense that they were not respected by a Conservative government”. Pay restraint was also particularly painful in the face of high living costs in London, he said. And he focused on housing and aspiration. If de Bois is right, you can be sure his ideas will play a significant role in the mayoral election if Goldsmith wins the nomination, because he is chairing the Goldsmith campaign. So the Tories are up for the fight. | One of the Tory MPs to lose his London seat – Nick de Bois in Enfield – has long called on his party to do more to reach out to minority voters. In an online article after the election, he argued Conservatives had made headway with Asian voters, but not other ethnic minorities. He also used the piece to criticise his party’s language with regards to the public sector, arguing that it left policemen and women, health workers and teachers with a “deep-seated sense that they were not respected by a Conservative government”. Pay restraint was also particularly painful in the face of high living costs in London, he said. And he focused on housing and aspiration. If de Bois is right, you can be sure his ideas will play a significant role in the mayoral election if Goldsmith wins the nomination, because he is chairing the Goldsmith campaign. So the Tories are up for the fight. |
| And Labour should also be careful not to be complacent about its current position in London – May’s election results were not quite as dramatic as they may have seemed. The party won an impressive 1.5m votes, but only took seven of its 12 target seats. In the five constituencies where it fell short – Finchley and Golders Green, Harrow East, Hendon, Croydon Central and Battersea – the Tories increased their share of the vote . In fact, the Conservatives saw a small increase in their vote across the capital, from 1.1 to 1.2m (thanks to the Lib Dems they crushed along the way). The Tory and Ukip vote combined was the same as Labour’s total, which is significant when you consider how the mayor’s election is decided. | And Labour should also be careful not to be complacent about its current position in London – May’s election results were not quite as dramatic as they may have seemed. The party won an impressive 1.5m votes, but only took seven of its 12 target seats. In the five constituencies where it fell short – Finchley and Golders Green, Harrow East, Hendon, Croydon Central and Battersea – the Tories increased their share of the vote . In fact, the Conservatives saw a small increase in their vote across the capital, from 1.1 to 1.2m (thanks to the Lib Dems they crushed along the way). The Tory and Ukip vote combined was the same as Labour’s total, which is significant when you consider how the mayor’s election is decided. |
| This is a system in which second preferences are transferred until one candidate has 50% or more of the vote. A consequence is that politicians have to reach out across the political divide to secure the mayoralty. Which is what both Johnson and Ken Livingstone managed to do to an impressive extent. Perhaps that is why there is less of a sense that Labour in London is clamouring for a leftwing alternative. The momentum gained by Jeremy Corbyn’s national campaign has simply not translated into a poll lead for Diane Abbott. In fact, surveys have Tessa Jowell, a centrist candidate who is routinely described as Blairite, in the lead Her campaign is all about electability, with her team arguing that only she can attract enough votes from other parties to beat Goldsmith overall. Her focus is on policies such as housing, children’s early years and apprenticeships alongside the pledge that she is not a factional politician. | This is a system in which second preferences are transferred until one candidate has 50% or more of the vote. A consequence is that politicians have to reach out across the political divide to secure the mayoralty. Which is what both Johnson and Ken Livingstone managed to do to an impressive extent. Perhaps that is why there is less of a sense that Labour in London is clamouring for a leftwing alternative. The momentum gained by Jeremy Corbyn’s national campaign has simply not translated into a poll lead for Diane Abbott. In fact, surveys have Tessa Jowell, a centrist candidate who is routinely described as Blairite, in the lead Her campaign is all about electability, with her team arguing that only she can attract enough votes from other parties to beat Goldsmith overall. Her focus is on policies such as housing, children’s early years and apprenticeships alongside the pledge that she is not a factional politician. |
| Her intent is clear from emails to voters that begin: “Labour must start winning elections again. It’s not enough to say that London is a Labour city.” That is clearly true. Despite commentators regularly describing the capital as Labour-leaning, the party has only won the mayoral competition once in four attempts. (Livingstone was an independent the first time round.) | Her intent is clear from emails to voters that begin: “Labour must start winning elections again. It’s not enough to say that London is a Labour city.” That is clearly true. Despite commentators regularly describing the capital as Labour-leaning, the party has only won the mayoral competition once in four attempts. (Livingstone was an independent the first time round.) |
| But Jowell’s opponents also believe they can reach out. Sadiq Khan, who has narrowed the gap, is the candidate perhaps most benefiting from the Corbyn mood. His team wants to contrast his background to that of Goldsmith’s. A source stressed that Khan is a “child of immigrants and the son of a bus driver” who grew up on a council estate before becoming a human rights lawyer. He believes he can inspire London communities and insists there is evidence that he could take on Goldsmith. His supporters say he has shown he can attract diverse sets of voters in his Tooting constituency and point out he was in charge of Labour’s London campaign. | But Jowell’s opponents also believe they can reach out. Sadiq Khan, who has narrowed the gap, is the candidate perhaps most benefiting from the Corbyn mood. His team wants to contrast his background to that of Goldsmith’s. A source stressed that Khan is a “child of immigrants and the son of a bus driver” who grew up on a council estate before becoming a human rights lawyer. He believes he can inspire London communities and insists there is evidence that he could take on Goldsmith. His supporters say he has shown he can attract diverse sets of voters in his Tooting constituency and point out he was in charge of Labour’s London campaign. |
| With David Lammy also in the race, and Gareth Thomas pushing for radical devolution, the contest for the nomination is certainly engaging, with policy ideas pouring out. But whoever wins faces a daunting task. “Zac” may not be “Boris” but he could be a formidable opponent. The MP secured one of the largest majorities in the country in his Richmond constituency in May. He is seen as an independent-minded Tory, who is principled and cares about the environment. He also has a touch of the Johnsonesque blockbuster appeal. | With David Lammy also in the race, and Gareth Thomas pushing for radical devolution, the contest for the nomination is certainly engaging, with policy ideas pouring out. But whoever wins faces a daunting task. “Zac” may not be “Boris” but he could be a formidable opponent. The MP secured one of the largest majorities in the country in his Richmond constituency in May. He is seen as an independent-minded Tory, who is principled and cares about the environment. He also has a touch of the Johnsonesque blockbuster appeal. |
| And as we’ve seen a few times, London can vote Labour with one hand and Tory with the other. Even independents win. After all, these races are as much about personalities and characters as parties. | And as we’ve seen a few times, London can vote Labour with one hand and Tory with the other. Even independents win. After all, these races are as much about personalities and characters as parties. |
| Still, there is a lot at stake for Labour. Professor Michael Thrasher, the Sky News election analyst from Plymouth University, argued that there are two big targets looming for the party: London and to be a significant player in stopping the SNP from winning a majority in the Scottish elections. “To miss one of those would be a significant failure. To miss out on both would be an absolute disaster.” | Still, there is a lot at stake for Labour. Professor Michael Thrasher, the Sky News election analyst from Plymouth University, argued that there are two big targets looming for the party: London and to be a significant player in stopping the SNP from winning a majority in the Scottish elections. “To miss one of those would be a significant failure. To miss out on both would be an absolute disaster.” |
| Senior sources admit that he is right. And they know that of the two big challenges, winning the capital is most in reach. That is why they have already started to plan their tactics before a candidate is even in place. A very large proportion of Labour members live in the capital and they will all be expected to help their party secure this victory next year. After all, the Conservatives will fight hard to retain London, knowing that would be political dynamite for their opponents. That is why the Labour party believes that this is one battle it must win. | Senior sources admit that he is right. And they know that of the two big challenges, winning the capital is most in reach. That is why they have already started to plan their tactics before a candidate is even in place. A very large proportion of Labour members live in the capital and they will all be expected to help their party secure this victory next year. After all, the Conservatives will fight hard to retain London, knowing that would be political dynamite for their opponents. That is why the Labour party believes that this is one battle it must win. |
| • This article was amended on 3 September to correctly identify Zac Goldsmith’s constituency as Richmond Park, rather than Richmond, which is in North Yorkshire. |
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