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| Cyprus Hopes Reunification Talks Will Revive a Resort, Population 0 | Cyprus Hopes Reunification Talks Will Revive a Resort, Population 0 |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| FAMAGUSTA, Cyprus — Beyond a wilderness of parched weeds, crumbling buildings and roads amputated by tangles of razor wire, a long line of multistory hotels basks in the east Mediterranean sun. | FAMAGUSTA, Cyprus — Beyond a wilderness of parched weeds, crumbling buildings and roads amputated by tangles of razor wire, a long line of multistory hotels basks in the east Mediterranean sun. |
| Behind it, the turquoise sea glistens, rolling softly onto a five-mile stretch of golden sand. | Behind it, the turquoise sea glistens, rolling softly onto a five-mile stretch of golden sand. |
| In July, places like this around the Mediterranean are normally crowded with thousands of tourists. Yet a nearby beach, once visited by the likes of Elizabeth Taylor, Sophia Loren and Paul Newman, is different. | In July, places like this around the Mediterranean are normally crowded with thousands of tourists. Yet a nearby beach, once visited by the likes of Elizabeth Taylor, Sophia Loren and Paul Newman, is different. |
| At the height of the tourist season, and every other season for the last 41 years, this beach is deserted. | At the height of the tourist season, and every other season for the last 41 years, this beach is deserted. |
| In 1974, after a decade of conflict in Cyprus between its Greek Cypriot majority and Turkish Cypriot minority, Turkey invaded Cyprus. | In 1974, after a decade of conflict in Cyprus between its Greek Cypriot majority and Turkish Cypriot minority, Turkey invaded Cyprus. |
| The invasion set off fighting between Turkish Cypriots living here in Famagusta’s medieval center and Greek Cypriots living just outside in the resort suburb of Varosha. | The invasion set off fighting between Turkish Cypriots living here in Famagusta’s medieval center and Greek Cypriots living just outside in the resort suburb of Varosha. |
| As Turkish invasion forces neared, the 45,000 mainly Greek Cypriot inhabitants of Varosha fled south. None have returned. | As Turkish invasion forces neared, the 45,000 mainly Greek Cypriot inhabitants of Varosha fled south. None have returned. |
| “We thought we’d be back after a few days,” Despina Tsikkini, a former resident, said. “But now, it’s 41 years.” | “We thought we’d be back after a few days,” Despina Tsikkini, a former resident, said. “But now, it’s 41 years.” |
| Finding Varosha empty, Turkish troops sealed it off with a wall of barbed wire, turning it into a so-called military forbidden zone. It has remained that way since, a symbol of an intractable problem in a region that is riddled with them. | Finding Varosha empty, Turkish troops sealed it off with a wall of barbed wire, turning it into a so-called military forbidden zone. It has remained that way since, a symbol of an intractable problem in a region that is riddled with them. |
| Now, though, hopes are at their highest in years that this ghost resort may soon come back to life. | Now, though, hopes are at their highest in years that this ghost resort may soon come back to life. |
| United Nations-sponsored talks on reunifying Cyprus, set to resume on Tuesday, have been advancing, with Espen Barth Eide, the body’s special adviser on Cyprus, talking in July of a “prevailing positive climate.” | |
| The Turkish Cypriot leader, Mustafa Akinci, added that it could be “a matter of months, rather than years, to solve the problem,” while Nicos Anastasiades, the Greek Cypriot leader, told reporters that there was “mutual understanding” and that the parties “are on the same track.” | The Turkish Cypriot leader, Mustafa Akinci, added that it could be “a matter of months, rather than years, to solve the problem,” while Nicos Anastasiades, the Greek Cypriot leader, told reporters that there was “mutual understanding” and that the parties “are on the same track.” |
| Successful talks would end four decades of division — and Varosha’s former inhabitants could return home. | Successful talks would end four decades of division — and Varosha’s former inhabitants could return home. |
| This would have major implications for Cyprus, as Varosha brings into focus both the tragedy of Cyprus’s division and the potential benefits of its reunification. | This would have major implications for Cyprus, as Varosha brings into focus both the tragedy of Cyprus’s division and the potential benefits of its reunification. |
| “With the best beach in the Mediterranean, Varosha is like Copacabana,” said Costas Apostolides, a Harvard-trained economist and a former officer at the Cypriot Planning Bureau. “It’s huge. Opening it up again could by itself rejuvenate the entire island’s economy.” | “With the best beach in the Mediterranean, Varosha is like Copacabana,” said Costas Apostolides, a Harvard-trained economist and a former officer at the Cypriot Planning Bureau. “It’s huge. Opening it up again could by itself rejuvenate the entire island’s economy.” |
| Today, the island is split between the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus in the south and, in the north, the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Turkey. Famagusta and Varosha lie in the Turkish area. | Today, the island is split between the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus in the south and, in the north, the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Turkey. Famagusta and Varosha lie in the Turkish area. |
| Since 1974, United Nations-backed negotiations between the Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots have failed to reunite the island. | Since 1974, United Nations-backed negotiations between the Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots have failed to reunite the island. |
| Yet with a settlement, Mr. Anastasiades told a joint meeting of the Cyprus and Turkish Cyprus Chambers of Commerce in July, “there is the potential that the all-island G.D.P. could double in 20 years time.” | Yet with a settlement, Mr. Anastasiades told a joint meeting of the Cyprus and Turkish Cyprus Chambers of Commerce in July, “there is the potential that the all-island G.D.P. could double in 20 years time.” |
| Such a turn would provide a much-needed economic jolt. In 2013, the Republic of Cyprus went into financial meltdown, with businesses shutting and many Cypriots losing savings in a “bail-in” to prop up banks, while capital controls were put in place. Like Greece, the Republic has since been subject to a tight austerity program imposed by the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the eurozone. | Such a turn would provide a much-needed economic jolt. In 2013, the Republic of Cyprus went into financial meltdown, with businesses shutting and many Cypriots losing savings in a “bail-in” to prop up banks, while capital controls were put in place. Like Greece, the Republic has since been subject to a tight austerity program imposed by the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the eurozone. |
| In the north of the island, economic conditions are also far from healthy. | In the north of the island, economic conditions are also far from healthy. |
| “We have youth unemployment of around 40 percent,” said Serdar Atai of the Famagusta Initiative, a Turkish Cypriot organization that wants to reopen Varosha and reunite the two communities. “Many young people go abroad to find work, and often they don’t come back.” | “We have youth unemployment of around 40 percent,” said Serdar Atai of the Famagusta Initiative, a Turkish Cypriot organization that wants to reopen Varosha and reunite the two communities. “Many young people go abroad to find work, and often they don’t come back.” |
| Pavlos Iacovou of Famagusta, Our City, another organization committed to reunification, said: “Varosha was once home to some 60 percent of the island’s entire stock of hotel rooms, while the neighboring port of Famagusta handled some 65 percent of the island’s trade. All that went in 1974.” | |
| With a port in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is subject to an international trade embargo, Famagusta has withered as a trade hub and tourism has never recovered. | |
| The barbed wire, buffer zones and Turkish military bases around Varosha have also taken their toll on nearby towns. Deryneia, a Greek Cypriot town to the south, lost about 75 percent of its land and its beach to the Turkish military. | The barbed wire, buffer zones and Turkish military bases around Varosha have also taken their toll on nearby towns. Deryneia, a Greek Cypriot town to the south, lost about 75 percent of its land and its beach to the Turkish military. |
| “With all this gone, there’s little work and we’re losing population, as people move away to find jobs and a future,” said Andros Karayiannis, mayor of Deryneia. | “With all this gone, there’s little work and we’re losing population, as people move away to find jobs and a future,” said Andros Karayiannis, mayor of Deryneia. |
| A report by the Peace Research Institute Oslo, a nonprofit independent research institute, found last year that if the island were reunited, there would be a “peace dividend” of around 20 billion euros, or about $22 billion — an amount roughly equivalent to the existing gross domestic product of the Republic of Cyprus. | |
| “The value of the land in the closed area of Varosha alone, I would say, is conservatively worth around €5 billion — very conservatively,” said Mr. Apostolides, the economist. | “The value of the land in the closed area of Varosha alone, I would say, is conservatively worth around €5 billion — very conservatively,” said Mr. Apostolides, the economist. |
| Reuniting the island would have other economic benefits. | Reuniting the island would have other economic benefits. |
| Because of the embargo there is no direct foreign trade with the Turkish north, said Fiona Mullen of Sapienta Economics, a private economic consultancy based in Nicosia, the capital of Cyprus. “To fly there, you have to go via Turkey,” she said. “Also, while the whole island is technically part of the European Union, in the north, all E.U. rules are suspended, so you don’t have E.U. regulations in place to attract investors.” | Because of the embargo there is no direct foreign trade with the Turkish north, said Fiona Mullen of Sapienta Economics, a private economic consultancy based in Nicosia, the capital of Cyprus. “To fly there, you have to go via Turkey,” she said. “Also, while the whole island is technically part of the European Union, in the north, all E.U. rules are suspended, so you don’t have E.U. regulations in place to attract investors.” |
| At the same time, the Republic of Cyprus is stymied by a counterembargo by Turkey on its ships and planes, denying them access to the giant and lucrative Turkish market, its closest neighbor. | At the same time, the Republic of Cyprus is stymied by a counterembargo by Turkey on its ships and planes, denying them access to the giant and lucrative Turkish market, its closest neighbor. |
| “The conflict also means they can’t properly look for oil and gas around the island,” Ms. Mullen added. | “The conflict also means they can’t properly look for oil and gas around the island,” Ms. Mullen added. |
| Yet putting Cyprus back together again may also have its costs. | Yet putting Cyprus back together again may also have its costs. |
| “The big problem,” Mr. Apostolides said, is compensating people who were forced to leave their homes. “Just this could cost €30 billion.” | “The big problem,” Mr. Apostolides said, is compensating people who were forced to leave their homes. “Just this could cost €30 billion.” |
| In 1974, about 165,000 Greek Cypriots fled south, while 45,000 Turkish Cypriots became refugees in the north. Many of their homes are now inhabited by others or have been demolished. | In 1974, about 165,000 Greek Cypriots fled south, while 45,000 Turkish Cypriots became refugees in the north. Many of their homes are now inhabited by others or have been demolished. |
| At the same time, a settlement would probably mean new population movements, as Greek and Turkish Cypriot territory within the new, unified state would most likely be readjusted. | At the same time, a settlement would probably mean new population movements, as Greek and Turkish Cypriot territory within the new, unified state would most likely be readjusted. |
| Compensating people for these losses would be a critical, and costly, part of any settlement. | Compensating people for these losses would be a critical, and costly, part of any settlement. |
| “As we’ve seen recently, there’s a distinct lack of appetite for throwing money around among international lenders,” Ms. Mullen said. “Plus, you don’t want reunification to be financed by more debt or more bail-ins.” | “As we’ve seen recently, there’s a distinct lack of appetite for throwing money around among international lenders,” Ms. Mullen said. “Plus, you don’t want reunification to be financed by more debt or more bail-ins.” |
| Another problem would be trying to bring incomes in the north into line with incomes in the south, which are generally much higher. | Another problem would be trying to bring incomes in the north into line with incomes in the south, which are generally much higher. |
| But Mertkan Hamit of the Famagusta Initiative said, “The last time we thought there might be a settlement, back in 2004, per capita income in the north nearly doubled on the back of a boom in construction, as people thought our isolation was about to be over.” | But Mertkan Hamit of the Famagusta Initiative said, “The last time we thought there might be a settlement, back in 2004, per capita income in the north nearly doubled on the back of a boom in construction, as people thought our isolation was about to be over.” |
| Reopening Varosha would most likely involve rebuilding most of the abandoned area, also a major expense. | Reopening Varosha would most likely involve rebuilding most of the abandoned area, also a major expense. |
| “You’d see the biggest investment growth in an area that currently has the highest unemployment on the island,” Mr. Hamit said. “Rebuilding the place is not a cost, but gives long-term added value to the economy.” | “You’d see the biggest investment growth in an area that currently has the highest unemployment on the island,” Mr. Hamit said. “Rebuilding the place is not a cost, but gives long-term added value to the economy.” |
| Over the decades, Varosha’s once-glittering avenues have decayed, and the windmills that once pumped water to irrigate acres of orange groves around the city now stand locked and frozen. | |
| “By day, you look over and see a whole city,” Mr. Hamit said. “Then, at night, you see nothing. Not a single light. It’s like we’re sleeping with the dead. It’s time to turn the lights back on.” | “By day, you look over and see a whole city,” Mr. Hamit said. “Then, at night, you see nothing. Not a single light. It’s like we’re sleeping with the dead. It’s time to turn the lights back on.” |
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