Laura Kuenssberg: 'Amazing moment' in British politics

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34110959

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If you're reading this page for the first time then we have something in common - this is a first for me too.

Others of you might have read some of my stories or observations before, but it's the first time I'm writing as the BBC's political editor. Welcome.

I couldn't have a better predecessor than my excellent colleague Nick Robinson, who'll soon bring his incredible insight and wit to the Today programme on Radio 4.

But you and I could hardly be starting out here at a more interesting moment in British politics.

Over the coming years, I'll try to unpick what's going on, try to capture the essence of what's being said in public, but also what's being discussed in private, and what that might mean for us all.

Tatty rule book

This is an amazing moment, in part because pundits and politicians can't be sure of very much. The rule book is looking a bit tattered around the edges.

The reliability of the polls took a hammering in May when the strong and widely held expectation that no one party could win the general election outright turned out to be totally misplaced.

The SNP were on the losing side not even 12 months ago in the vote on Scottish independence, but far from defeat damaging them as you might have assumed, historic victory followed in May, as it became the third biggest party in the House of Commons.

Now the Conservatives are trying to redraw their rules, casting themselves as the party of the low paid.

And it seems the assumptions are about to be broken again.

Not for Labour a leader who conforms to the rules it helped design - someone who talks Westminster's language, has doggedly built a career based on party loyalty, and aspires to wide appeal - but a man, Jeremy Corbyn, who has made a life out of being an insurgent in his own party, defying the leadership, and who many of his MP colleagues hardly even know.

Election rules

The political story of the summer has, without question, been how this relatively obscure London MP has packed out clammy meeting halls around the country, exciting thousands upon thousands of people, making himself the most likely candidate to face David Cameron across the despatch box as the leader of Her Majesty's Opposition.

But, hold on. Big crowds don't make it a done deal. The actual rules of this contest, not just the excitement of upending political rules, are worth paying attention to.

It's hard to find anyone in the Labour Party now who thinks that Mr Corbyn won't win the first round of votes. But that's not it.

Unless he gets over 50% of the votes in that first round - far less certain - the rules dictate that whoever is in fourth place drops out and the second preferences of their backers are reallocated to the other candidates.

If there is still no winner, the third-placed candidate is then eliminated with their second preferences similarly reallocated. The candidate who has accumulated the most votes through the different rounds then wins.

This matters so much because crucially, given how far to the left most of Mr Corbyn's positions are compared with the other candidates, if the ballot does enter that second phase, he stands to lose out.

Bust assumptions

One source explained "he just won't get enough transfers from the other side of the ledger".

Therefore, for Mr Corbyn and all of the other candidates, the last few days of this race are not about whether he is "winning", but whether he can make it over 42% or 43% of votes in the first round. If he can't, a victory which is seen as inevitable in some quarters may elude him.

And straightforwardly, many thousands of votes are yet to be cast, and there is not enough reliable data to know which boxes are actually being crossed, and in what order.

Reality, and the party's rules, mean he has not yet won the race.

But the clamour around Mr Corbyn in these last few weeks has already bust our early assumptions. The danger for Labour is that a Corbyn victory could bust the party too.