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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/01/nigel-farage-eu-referendum-britain-eu-immigration-ukip
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| To Farage the opportunist, the EU referendum is his chance for glory | To Farage the opportunist, the EU referendum is his chance for glory |
| (34 minutes later) | |
| The phoenix rises from the ashes. Nigel Farage’s Ukip today became the third army to join the crusade for Britain to leave Europe in the 2017 referendum. Why he should do so is hardly a secret: Farage is a master opportunist. The refugee crisis has plunged Europe into a turmoil of confusion over migration. To Farage, Britain’s membership of the EU is essentially about immigration. With a sporting chance of the referendum going in favour of not remaining in the EU, he is not going to deny himself a share in the glory. | |
| Cameron has clearly nailed his colours to the yes mast, before even a whisper of a concession from his European partners | Cameron has clearly nailed his colours to the yes mast, before even a whisper of a concession from his European partners |
| Ukip is that modern phenomenon, a single-issue movement with a degree of support capable of upsetting the conventional political applecart. It has seized on the nationalist reaction against the post-war supra-national federalism, as have similar movements in Scotland and on the continent. In the 2014 European parliament elections, Ukip came first with 4.4m votes and 27% of the electorate. It performed well in votes cast in this spring’s general election. As long as Europe is the question, Ukip is the clear answer, and at a referendum, as in any European poll, Europe is indeed the question. | Ukip is that modern phenomenon, a single-issue movement with a degree of support capable of upsetting the conventional political applecart. It has seized on the nationalist reaction against the post-war supra-national federalism, as have similar movements in Scotland and on the continent. In the 2014 European parliament elections, Ukip came first with 4.4m votes and 27% of the electorate. It performed well in votes cast in this spring’s general election. As long as Europe is the question, Ukip is the clear answer, and at a referendum, as in any European poll, Europe is indeed the question. |
| Yet the nature of the EU campaign remains highly unpredictable. The in or out question – devised to dodge the issue of David Cameron’s much-vaunted renegotiation – could cut both ways. At present the yes advocates always hedge their bets by saying they want to stay in a “reformed” EU, with Britain’s membership on a “renegotiated” basis. But what if there is no reform and the renegotiation is trivial, as seems likely? To this the yes campaign has no answer. It is on this ambiguity that the no advocates will fasten. | Yet the nature of the EU campaign remains highly unpredictable. The in or out question – devised to dodge the issue of David Cameron’s much-vaunted renegotiation – could cut both ways. At present the yes advocates always hedge their bets by saying they want to stay in a “reformed” EU, with Britain’s membership on a “renegotiated” basis. But what if there is no reform and the renegotiation is trivial, as seems likely? To this the yes campaign has no answer. It is on this ambiguity that the no advocates will fasten. |
| Cameron has clearly nailed his colours to the yes mast, before even a whisper of a concession from his European partners. He appears to be in favour of Britain’s EU membership come what may, rendering his renegotiation a largely presentational event. The yes campaign – and what appears to be Cameron’s personal future – is thus tied to a European federation unable to relieve its poorer regions of poverty worsened by austerity, and with the poor of Africa and Asia beating at its door. It is not a happy prospectus to put to an already sceptical British electorate. | Cameron has clearly nailed his colours to the yes mast, before even a whisper of a concession from his European partners. He appears to be in favour of Britain’s EU membership come what may, rendering his renegotiation a largely presentational event. The yes campaign – and what appears to be Cameron’s personal future – is thus tied to a European federation unable to relieve its poorer regions of poverty worsened by austerity, and with the poor of Africa and Asia beating at its door. It is not a happy prospectus to put to an already sceptical British electorate. |
| Related: The EU referendum won’t be decided on the Eurostar but in the pub | Related: The EU referendum won’t be decided on the Eurostar but in the pub |
| The yes and no campaigns must eventually cohere into one organisation. For the time being Ukip is a happy fellow-traveller, unbridled by any need to liaise with its allies. A wise voter might prefer to wait, at least to give Cameron the benefit of the initial doubt. | The yes and no campaigns must eventually cohere into one organisation. For the time being Ukip is a happy fellow-traveller, unbridled by any need to liaise with its allies. A wise voter might prefer to wait, at least to give Cameron the benefit of the initial doubt. |
| No such doubt now surrounds the outspoken advocates of no. Farage today conceded to the BBC he may not be the ideal leader of the no campaign. But he means to milk it for all it is worth before putting his party under the cloak of collective leadership. | No such doubt now surrounds the outspoken advocates of no. Farage today conceded to the BBC he may not be the ideal leader of the no campaign. But he means to milk it for all it is worth before putting his party under the cloak of collective leadership. |
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