One in three baby girls in England will live to 90

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/sep/01/longer-life-leads-to-fears-of-later-retirement

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One in three women in England will live to at least 90 years old, according to official figures on longevity, which raise fears that the state pension age will have to rise to 70.

A female baby born between 2010 and 2012 can, on average, expect to live to 82.8, while a male should live to 79, according to the Office for National Statistics. When the ONS last issued figures a decade ago, female longevity was 80.6, while for males it was 76.

The epidemic of obesity and diabetes has so far had little impact on improvements to lifespans. Over the last 100 years, English life expectancy at birth has increased by nearly three years every decade. Life expectancy at birth for men in 1910 was just 51 and for women 55.

While improvements in longevity were welcomed by experts, they said they placed further pressure on the NHS and creaking pension systems.

A state pension age of at least 70 by 2050 now looks inevitable, said Malcolm McLean from pension consultant Barnett Waddingham. It is currently planned to rise to 67 between 2026 and 2028.

“The ONS figures do raise the possibility of many more people in this country living well into their 90s by the second half of this century.

“Using the formula now proposed by the government that future generations should spend up to a third of their adult life in retirement it is very likely that state pension ages will have to rise much faster than currently anticipated, almost inevitably reaching at least 70 by the mid-point of the century.”

English male longevity now matches the Nordic countries, the ONS said, although it is Australia which has enjoyed the greatest improvements in lifespan, with the United States consistently worst.

Ben Franklin, at the International Longevity Centre said: “Rising life expectancy is of course to be celebrated and it has not stopped rising yet.

“This will put more pressures on our health and social care systems, but not as much as in other advanced economies where population ageing is happening even more rapidly. In Germany for example, the working age population (those aged 16-64) is falling which ultimately will make it harder to pay for the growing number living longer in old age.

“In the UK, our working age population is likely to continue rising until the middle of this century which should help to keep our economy growing and tax revenues coming in.”

International comparisons issued by the ONS show that English men are rising up the tables, although English women are lagging.

In 1980, English male longevity was two years behind that in Norway, but has now drawn level, while a three year gap with Iceland has narrowed to just one year.

Female longevity in England is three years behind Japan and two years behind France, although on a par with Germany.

Australia is the country enjoying the biggest improvements in life expectancy. Australian male longevity now exceeds that of Japan, while its women can now expect to live longer than females in Norway or Iceland.

The US, which has the world’s most lavish and expensive health care system, is consistently bottom of the tables for both men and women among the developed countries.

A man in Australia is now likely to live four year longer than an American male, while its women survive three years longer.

Franklin said: “The US consistently lags behind other developed nations in terms of average life expectancy, and this is often put down to higher levels of income inequality and access to healthcare.”

New freedoms introduced by George Osborne this year allow pension savers access to their cash – but many people are underestimating how long they will survive, warned Tom McPhail of advisers Hargreaves Lansdown.

“One concern relating to the pension freedoms is that people tend to set their expectations according to their personal experience. Yet they are likely to live several years longer than their parents and grandparents. If they don’t reset their expectations to allow for these higher ages then they could find themselves running out of money before they die.”