The Guardian view on Britain and Europe: the remorseless drift of David Cameron
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Version 0 of 1. If the David Cameron approach to matters European can be captured in a word, that word is drift. The modernising young Conservative leader who began by warning his party about “banging on” about Europe went on to concede the referendum that guarantees a year or two in which politics is all about banging on about Europe to the exclusion of anything else. Just after winning a new mandate, the PM gave more ground – abandoning his view that the public was perfectly capable of deciding two things on one day, to fall in with the anti-European demand not to stage the vote along with the devolved and local elections. He also gave alarmingly mixed messages on a supremely important management question, making tough noises to anti-European ministers before later encouraging them to believe they could campaign as they pleased. This is the context in which this week’s twin slippage on the referendum must be understood. The first move, acceding to the Electoral Commission’s rewrite of the referendum question was, perhaps, inevitable. Defying the referee’s request to shift from a crisp yes/no formulation, towards a choice between “remain” and “leave”, would have rendered the vote a hollow fraud in the eyes of the anti-European obsessives. The effects are open to question. In disgruntled times, “no” might have proved a powerful referendum rallying cry, as it recently proved in Greece, But the immediate effect was to restore the morale of out campaigners, who have been splintering into three camps this week, and to increase anxiety among some of the pro-Europeans. Considered in isolation, there was a defensible case for the second move, too – the imposition of so-called purdah, rules barring non-routine official announcements in the campaign. This familiar restriction in regular elections has been the practice in other referendums, too, so exempting the EU vote would have stirred suspicions of a stitch-up. The problem is that Mr Cameron had previously maintained that purdah could jeopardise the pursuit of British interests. By retreating late in the face of rebellion, Mr Cameron will encourage more mutiny. Although preoccupied with his own ranks, the prime minister will soon – as soon as next April, Wednesday’s reports suggested – be tasked with talking to the country as a whole about its destiny. Making the case for Europe could soon be complicated if Jeremy Corbyn, an instinctive Brussels sceptic, becomes the Labour leader. Although Mr Corbyn has now clarified that he can’t imagine Labour campaigning for EU exit, his warnings about the PM renegotiating membership on Tory terms, say by watering down employment rights, illustrate how a Eurosceptic left flank could open up. Indeed, with the eurozone gripped by austerity, the surprise should be that it hasn’t happened yet. If a leftish opposition forms an unholy alliance with the conservative press to denounce the renegotiation as a sham, Mr Cameron will be battling in two directions at once. And the difficulties will be redoubled if the renegotiation achieves less than the spin. The government is rowing back from the assault on social Europe, which could be a pragmatic response to the prospect of a Corbyn win, or a shrewd recognition that an EU overhaul defined by longer hours and shorter holidays would lack appeal. But where does this leave claims about repatriating major powers? An “emergency brake” on immigration was once floated, but the UK’s isolated diplomatic reality has done for that. In its rush to strip EU nationals of in-work credits without breaching discrimination rules, the government seems ready to deny the payments to young Britons, which would provide Ukip with a ready-made example of the absurdities that Europe drives politicians to. Only the finer details of labour mobility rules are on the agenda, and much hope is placed on opting out of “ever closer union”, an essentially rhetorical commitment. It is all thin gruel, but – here’s the irony – if Mr Cameron had only engaged with his partners, instead of posturing, he would have found propitious circumstances for his agenda. From strains in the eurozone to immigration, it is plain that the emergencies of the day are pushing the EU in the direction of a Europe of nations. Ever closer union is for the moment a pipe dream, and a constructively engaged prime minister could be building the allies to rewrite rules to fit in with changing realities. Mr Cameron, however, has failed to do this. Instead he keeps an obsessive eye on his backbenches, while watching events on the continent drift. |