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Migration crisis: new public mood poses dilemma for Cameron Migration crisis: new public mood poses dilemma for Cameron
(35 minutes later)
It has been the quietest summer for Downing Street communications professionals, a pleasant holiday suffused with self-congratulation, a routine weekly news announcement and some amused flicking of the 24 hour news screens between a choice of meltdowns - in the Australian batting order and the Labour party. It has been the quietest summer for Downing Street communications professionals, a pleasant holiday suffused with self-congratulation, a routine weekly news announcement and some amused flicking of the 24 hour news screens between a choice of meltdowns – the Australian batting order and the Labour party.
Related: Shocking images of drowned Syrian boy show tragic plight of refugeesRelated: Shocking images of drowned Syrian boy show tragic plight of refugees
All that has suddenly changed. After reviewing Wednesday’s powerful front pages, including the Sun and Mail, the 8am Downing Street meeting, examining the day ahead, will have been at red alert, shot through with adrenaline and some fear. All that has suddenly changed. After reviewing Thursday’s powerful front pages, including the Sun and Mail, the 8am Downing Street meeting, examining the day ahead, will have been at red alert, shot through with adrenaline and some fear.
The cry has gone up for the government to do more about the refugee crisis and David Cameron’s insouciant, if technically correct, performance on television on Tuesday, saying the answer to the crisis was primarily achieving peace in Syria, was not the prime minister’s most sensitive moment. The cry has gone up for the government to do more about the refugee crisis and David Cameron’s insouciant, if technically correct, performance on television on Wednesday, saying the answer to the crisis was primarily achieving peace in Syria, was not the prime minister’s most sensitive moment.
There will also be some anger in Number 10 at the speed with which newspapers – for decades demanding more action to create a hostile environment to migrants – can overnight conduct a total U-turn and demand the government show greater charity to refugees. But no one in politics should expect the press to display consistency, or logic. It is their prerogative, and almost democratic duty, to capture the contradictory public mood. There will also be some anger in No 10 at the speed with which newspapers – for decades demanding more action to create a hostile environment to migrants – can overnight conduct a total U-turn and demand the government show greater charity to refugees. But no one in politics should expect the press to display consistency, or logic. It is their prerogative, and almost democratic duty, to capture the contradictory public mood.
The image of a swarm of calculating benefit scrounging migrants after your job in Calais has suddenly flipped. The focus is instead on desperate vulnerable children – the helpless victims of persecution, awash like discarded toy dolls on a beach in Turkey.The image of a swarm of calculating benefit scrounging migrants after your job in Calais has suddenly flipped. The focus is instead on desperate vulnerable children – the helpless victims of persecution, awash like discarded toy dolls on a beach in Turkey.
So what has changed, if anything? Obviously the picture, transported round the world like wildfire on Twitter, even though many such photos have existed before. Pictures can sway public opinion in a way the greatest polemicist cannot match.So what has changed, if anything? Obviously the picture, transported round the world like wildfire on Twitter, even though many such photos have existed before. Pictures can sway public opinion in a way the greatest polemicist cannot match.
Second, the scale of the steady crisis – itself years in the making – has in the past month escalated dramatically. The foreign policy failures of two decades - in north Africa, Afghanistan and Syria - are now increasingly apparent.. Second, the scale of the steady crisis – itself years in the making – has in the past month escalated dramatically. The foreign policy failures of two decades – in north Africa, Afghanistan and Syria – are now increasingly apparent.
Third, in Britain the shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, in a well-judged speech, informed by the apolitical advice of Citizens UK, broke the political consensus on immigration, urging the government to do more.Third, in Britain the shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, in a well-judged speech, informed by the apolitical advice of Citizens UK, broke the political consensus on immigration, urging the government to do more.
Yes, she was looking for votes in a leadership contest, but her speech written personally over two days, articulated a mood in parts of Middle Britain, and by asking the country to recall its commitment to sanctuary in the second world war, helped stir a patriotic spirit. The generosity of Germany somehow seemed shaming. Yes, she was looking for votes in a leadership contest, but her speech, which was written personally over two days, articulated a mood in parts of Middle Britain, and by asking the country to recall its commitment to sanctuary in the second world war, helped stir a patriotic spirit. The generosity of Germany somehow seemed shaming.
The task for Cameron is to judge the true public mood. If he gets it wrong, it can be a stain on his creaking reputation for compassion. The task for Cameron is to judge the true public mood. If he gets it wrong, it could be a stain on his creaking reputation for compassion.
He knows the churches, Citizens UK, some fickle newspaper editors and the shadow home secretary are not Britain. He may well feel that just as the public mood has flipped one way overnight, it could flip back the other way the next.He knows the churches, Citizens UK, some fickle newspaper editors and the shadow home secretary are not Britain. He may well feel that just as the public mood has flipped one way overnight, it could flip back the other way the next.
Immigration remains the British public’s No 1 concern. If he shifts his stance in the next few days, it cannot appear as if a door has been flung open to tens of thousands of migrants. He has a European Union referendum to win. Immigration remains the British public’s No 1 concern. If Cameron shifts his stance in the next few days, it cannot appear as if a door has been flung open to tens of thousands of migrants. He has a European Union referendum to win.
Instead he has to transform the emotion of the front pages into hard policy. He has himself described the last major EU heads of state discussion on migration as one of the most angry and difficult he has experienced.Instead he has to transform the emotion of the front pages into hard policy. He has himself described the last major EU heads of state discussion on migration as one of the most angry and difficult he has experienced.
Borders define nations, and few prime ministers want to cede yet more control over them to Brussels, something that is required if an EU quota system is imposed. There are no easy answers, unless you are one of the many populist parties stalking the leaders of Europe. Borders define nations, and few prime ministers want to cede yet more control over them to Brussels, something that would be required if an EU quota system is imposed. There are no easy answers, unless you are one of the many populist parties stalking the leaders of Europe.
There is also no shortage of advice; Daniel Hannan, the Euro-sceptic MEP who by chance was working this summer restoring a refugee centre in Italy, claimed that by any standards many coming to Europe were economic migrants.There is also no shortage of advice; Daniel Hannan, the Euro-sceptic MEP who by chance was working this summer restoring a refugee centre in Italy, claimed that by any standards many coming to Europe were economic migrants.
The short-term answer may well lie in increasing the upper limit on the number of Syrians that Britain will take from the UN-controlled camps on the border of Syria. The precise number could be calculated in conjunction with local councils, but somewhere this will require extra funding, even if much will be provided by the EU itself.The short-term answer may well lie in increasing the upper limit on the number of Syrians that Britain will take from the UN-controlled camps on the border of Syria. The precise number could be calculated in conjunction with local councils, but somewhere this will require extra funding, even if much will be provided by the EU itself.
Yes it would be that awful thing – a climbdown. But there is no shame, even in politics, in eventually doing the right thing. But the truth is taking a few thousand more refugees is just a pinprick. The bigger sources of this problem are an intractable as ever. Yes it would be that awful thing – a climbdown. But there is no shame, even in politics, in eventually doing the right thing. But the truth is that taking a few thousand more refugees is just a pinprick. The bigger sources of this problem are an intractable as ever.