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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/sep/04/business-live-jittery-markets-fall-us-jobs-report
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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
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| Jittery markets fall ahead of US jobs report - business live | Jittery markets fall ahead of US jobs report - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.05am BST10:05 | |
| The slump in German factory orders in July (see 8.03am) shows that the Chinese slowdown is hurting, say economists. | |
| Ulrike Kastens, economist at German private bank Sal. Oppenheim, said the fall in factory orders in July was “disappointing,” though the “modest” upward trend in German industry continues thanks to growth in recent months. | |
| While economic trends have improved within the eurozone, “developments in emerging markets, especially China, give cause for concern”. | |
| “This will be a drag on German exports in coming months and will also dampen prospects for the world economy.” | |
| Stefan Schilbe, economist at HSB Trinkaus, said domestic orders and from the rest of the eurozone had done well and falling oil prices should help. | |
| “But the main problem is what happens to global trade. Orders from the rest of the world fell by nearly 10%. There aren’t enough growth drivers in the global economy. The USA looks solid, but many developing countries such as China, Brazil and Russia are under pressure. Countries that depend on raw materials like Canada and Australia are also struggling.” | |
| (quotes via Reuters. Thanks to Julia Kollewe for the translations) | |
| 9.51am BST09:51 | |
| The European Central Bank has shaken off its anxiety over the eurozone economy, and pressed on with installing a large artwork shaped like a tree outside its headquarters. | |
| No that’s not a joke. | |
| See --> | |
| @ecb The tree is currently installed and nice pic.twitter.com/5NCzUdtBPC | |
| Created by Italian artist Giuseppe Penone, it’s called “Gravity and Growth” -- (neatly encompassing the gravity of Europe’s growth problem). It’s made of bronze and granite, and a staggering 17 metres tall. | |
| And how much has this little enterprise set us back? There’s no price tag on the tree, but the total competition to find three new artworks to brighten up the ECB HQ cost €1.25m! | |
| Money better spent on a project to tackle eurozone unemployment, or the refugee crisis, perhaps. | |
| 9.28am BST09:28 | 9.28am BST09:28 |
| The G20 will also resist blasting Beijing over the turbulence caused by its recent devaluation of the yuan, according to CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick. | The G20 will also resist blasting Beijing over the turbulence caused by its recent devaluation of the yuan, according to CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick. |
| #G20 Sources telling me (not unsurprisingly) NO criticism or even mention of #China specifically in draft Communique. | #G20 Sources telling me (not unsurprisingly) NO criticism or even mention of #China specifically in draft Communique. |
| 9.25am BST09:25 | 9.25am BST09:25 |
| G20 meeting: All about the Fed, eurozone QE, China and commodities | G20 meeting: All about the Fed, eurozone QE, China and commodities |
| There are four challenges facing finance chiefs at their G20 meeting, Luxembourg finance minister Pierre Gramegna tells Bloomberg TV. | There are four challenges facing finance chiefs at their G20 meeting, Luxembourg finance minister Pierre Gramegna tells Bloomberg TV. |
| He’s hoping for a “frank and open” discussions on these points: | He’s hoping for a “frank and open” discussions on these points: |
| On China, Gramegna pointed out that China is still aiming for 7% growth this year, despite the slowdown in its manufacturing sector. That would be an “outstanding result”, compared to Europe. | On China, Gramegna pointed out that China is still aiming for 7% growth this year, despite the slowdown in its manufacturing sector. That would be an “outstanding result”, compared to Europe. |
| But on the financial side, Gramegna warns that it’s “very difficult” to go against the market. As we may see on Monday, when the Shanghai index reopens.... | But on the financial side, Gramegna warns that it’s “very difficult” to go against the market. As we may see on Monday, when the Shanghai index reopens.... |
| 9.05am BST09:05 | 9.05am BST09:05 |
| G20 finance ministers fret about US rate hike | G20 finance ministers fret about US rate hike |
| The prospect of a US interest rate hike is worrying top finance ministers and central bankers as they gather in Ankara for the G20 meeting. | The prospect of a US interest rate hike is worrying top finance ministers and central bankers as they gather in Ankara for the G20 meeting. |
| A draft communique, seen by Bloomberg, warns that: | A draft communique, seen by Bloomberg, warns that: |
| In line with the improving economic outlook, monetary policy tightening is more likely in some advanced economies, which may remain one of the main sources of uncertainty in financial markets. | In line with the improving economic outlook, monetary policy tightening is more likely in some advanced economies, which may remain one of the main sources of uncertainty in financial markets. |
| However, the G20 meeting isn’t expected to lobby the Federal Reserve not to raise borrowing costs; it would, after all, be a sign of normalisation returning to the world economy. | However, the G20 meeting isn’t expected to lobby the Federal Reserve not to raise borrowing costs; it would, after all, be a sign of normalisation returning to the world economy. |
| Updated at 9.25am BST | Updated at 9.25am BST |
| 8.45am BST08:45 | 8.45am BST08:45 |
| Look who’s back! | Look who’s back! |
| Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister, has just told CNBC that he won’t back Syriza’s Alexis Tsipras in the general election on September 20th. | Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister, has just told CNBC that he won’t back Syriza’s Alexis Tsipras in the general election on September 20th. |
| BREAKING: Yanis Varoufakis tells CNBC: I'm not endorsing Tsipras in this election; he is still a friend but we have political disagreement | BREAKING: Yanis Varoufakis tells CNBC: I'm not endorsing Tsipras in this election; he is still a friend but we have political disagreement |
| That disagreement is Tsipras’s decision to accept the tough conditions attached to Greece’s third bailout, rather than exiting the eurozone. | That disagreement is Tsipras’s decision to accept the tough conditions attached to Greece’s third bailout, rather than exiting the eurozone. |
| LIVE: Varoufakis: A 10 year old would know that (Greece's debt situation) would not end well http://t.co/bJppuJzX5m pic.twitter.com/auHdpiRG98 | LIVE: Varoufakis: A 10 year old would know that (Greece's debt situation) would not end well http://t.co/bJppuJzX5m pic.twitter.com/auHdpiRG98 |
| Varoufakis also declared that the political situation in Greece is toxic, with the country “on the foundations of an economy that’s imploding”. | Varoufakis also declared that the political situation in Greece is toxic, with the country “on the foundations of an economy that’s imploding”. |
| Six months of brinksmanship and fruitless negotiations, leading to the introduction of capital controls, didn’t exactly help, of course.... | Six months of brinksmanship and fruitless negotiations, leading to the introduction of capital controls, didn’t exactly help, of course.... |
| Updated at 8.59am BST | Updated at 8.59am BST |
| 8.31am BST08:31 | 8.31am BST08:31 |
| European stocks fall around 1.4% in early trading | European stocks fall around 1.4% in early trading |
| So much for the Draghi rally. | So much for the Draghi rally. |
| Europe’s stock markets are sliding back as trading gets underway. | Europe’s stock markets are sliding back as trading gets underway. |
| In the City, the FTSE 100 quickly shed 80 points, led by retailers Next and Dixons Carphone (both down 3% after a broker downgrade) and then BP (down 2.7% as the oil price slides again) | In the City, the FTSE 100 quickly shed 80 points, led by retailers Next and Dixons Carphone (both down 3% after a broker downgrade) and then BP (down 2.7% as the oil price slides again) |
| This follows a late selloff on Wall Street, showing nervousness ahead of today’s US jobs report. | This follows a late selloff on Wall Street, showing nervousness ahead of today’s US jobs report. |
| Tony Cross, market analyst at Trustnet Direct, says: | Tony Cross, market analyst at Trustnet Direct, says: |
| A fair chunk of yesterday’s gains have been wiped off London’s FTSE-100 index in the first few minutes of trade this morning with selling in the latter part of yesterday’s Wall Street session clearly taking a toll on sentiment. | A fair chunk of yesterday’s gains have been wiped off London’s FTSE-100 index in the first few minutes of trade this morning with selling in the latter part of yesterday’s Wall Street session clearly taking a toll on sentiment. |
| Traders are now looking at screens awash with red numbers and even if today’s non-farm payrolls are seen as having no meaningful implications in driving a September rate hike, the Fed still has time to act before the year is out. Yesterday’s nascent rebound for commodity prices is also looking to be rather short lived – crude oil is slumping once again and as a result it’s little surprise that the natural resources stocks have been shunted towards the foot of the index. | Traders are now looking at screens awash with red numbers and even if today’s non-farm payrolls are seen as having no meaningful implications in driving a September rate hike, the Fed still has time to act before the year is out. Yesterday’s nascent rebound for commodity prices is also looking to be rather short lived – crude oil is slumping once again and as a result it’s little surprise that the natural resources stocks have been shunted towards the foot of the index. |
| 8.18am BST08:18 | 8.18am BST08:18 |
| John Lewis, that barometer of UK high street spending, has reported that sales at its department stores slid by 3.4% year-on-year in the last week of August. Not a great signal. | John Lewis, that barometer of UK high street spending, has reported that sales at its department stores slid by 3.4% year-on-year in the last week of August. Not a great signal. |
| It admitted that “a tough trading period closed with another difficult week”, but is pinning its hopes on targeting “pent-up demand” in September. | It admitted that “a tough trading period closed with another difficult week”, but is pinning its hopes on targeting “pent-up demand” in September. |
| Updated at 8.19am BST | Updated at 8.19am BST |
| 8.03am BST08:03 | 8.03am BST08:03 |
| We also have fresh signs of weakness in Europe’s powerhouse economy this morning. | We also have fresh signs of weakness in Europe’s powerhouse economy this morning. |
| German factory orders shrank by 1.4% in July, according to new data from the Economy Ministry. That’s a big reversal on June’s 1.8% rise in orders. | German factory orders shrank by 1.4% in July, according to new data from the Economy Ministry. That’s a big reversal on June’s 1.8% rise in orders. |
| It’s a volatile measure, so caution is needed. But it reinforces Mario Draghi’s point yesterday - Europe’s economy isn’t too rosy. | It’s a volatile measure, so caution is needed. But it reinforces Mario Draghi’s point yesterday - Europe’s economy isn’t too rosy. |
| Eurgh...some rather horrible factory orders from Germany -1.4% July vs June...much worse than expected | Eurgh...some rather horrible factory orders from Germany -1.4% July vs June...much worse than expected |
| 7.55am BST07:55 | 7.55am BST07:55 |
| Nikkei index hits seven-month low | Nikkei index hits seven-month low |
| A fresh bout of gloom swept Japan’s trading floor today, pushing the Nikkei index down by 2% to a fresh seven-month low. | A fresh bout of gloom swept Japan’s trading floor today, pushing the Nikkei index down by 2% to a fresh seven-month low. |
| Nikkei tumbles 2.2% to 17792.16 lowest since Feb on global de-risking. Falls 7% this week, worst week since Apr2014. pic.twitter.com/JZfgn3BoZ0 | Nikkei tumbles 2.2% to 17792.16 lowest since Feb on global de-risking. Falls 7% this week, worst week since Apr2014. pic.twitter.com/JZfgn3BoZ0 |
| The selloff appears to have been triggered by renewed worries over the state of the global economy, after Mario Draghi warned yesterday that eurozone growth has slowed. | The selloff appears to have been triggered by renewed worries over the state of the global economy, after Mario Draghi warned yesterday that eurozone growth has slowed. |
| Tokyo traders also weren’t impressed by the latest Japanese wage data, which showed real earnings rose just 0.3%. That’s not enough to get Japan’s economy roaring. | Tokyo traders also weren’t impressed by the latest Japanese wage data, which showed real earnings rose just 0.3%. That’s not enough to get Japan’s economy roaring. |
| Japanese wages: still stagnant http://t.co/Zgxe0rtST3 pic.twitter.com/qGRidw0qWs | Japanese wages: still stagnant http://t.co/Zgxe0rtST3 pic.twitter.com/qGRidw0qWs |
| 7.37am BST07:37 | 7.37am BST07:37 |
| Introduction: Nervous markets await US jobs report | Introduction: Nervous markets await US jobs report |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Today is all about the US jobs report, and the possibility that the long run of record low interest rates is about to end. | Today is all about the US jobs report, and the possibility that the long run of record low interest rates is about to end. |
| Investors are hunkering down ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll, released at 1.30pm BST (8.30am EDT). It will show how many new jobs were created in August. | Investors are hunkering down ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll, released at 1.30pm BST (8.30am EDT). It will show how many new jobs were created in August. |
| A strong reading could persuade the Federal Reserve to raise borrowing costs soon, perhaps this month, especially if it is accompanied by a decent rise in wages. A poor NFP could kick the first rate hike into 2016. | A strong reading could persuade the Federal Reserve to raise borrowing costs soon, perhaps this month, especially if it is accompanied by a decent rise in wages. A poor NFP could kick the first rate hike into 2016. |
| A middling report, though, will leave investors baffled about when the Fed will act, at a time when the global economy is looking weaker. | A middling report, though, will leave investors baffled about when the Fed will act, at a time when the global economy is looking weaker. |
| The Wall Street consensus is that the NFP will rise by 218,000, but as usual there’s wide variation, so it could be lively day. | The Wall Street consensus is that the NFP will rise by 218,000, but as usual there’s wide variation, so it could be lively day. |
| Especially as Federal Reserve policy maker Jeffrey Lacker will give a speech just before the Non-Farm payroll is released, called “the case against further delay”...... | Especially as Federal Reserve policy maker Jeffrey Lacker will give a speech just before the Non-Farm payroll is released, called “the case against further delay”...... |
| Good Most-Important-NFP-ever-Day Morning | Good Most-Important-NFP-ever-Day Morning |
| European stock markets are expected to slide by at least 1% this morning, having jumped yesterday after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi hinted at more stimulus measures. | European stock markets are expected to slide by at least 1% this morning, having jumped yesterday after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi hinted at more stimulus measures. |
| Our European opening calls: $FTSE 6106 down 88 $DAX 10155 down 163 $CAC 4576 down 77 $IBEX 9867 down 176 $MIB 21829 down 348 | Our European opening calls: $FTSE 6106 down 88 $DAX 10155 down 163 $CAC 4576 down 77 $IBEX 9867 down 176 $MIB 21829 down 348 |
| Asian markets have already dipped, even though the Chinese bourses are shut until Monday. | Asian markets have already dipped, even though the Chinese bourses are shut until Monday. |
| I guess #Draghi's speech never made it to Asia. #Nikkei turns sharply lower. pic.twitter.com/uSbxCOAzIo | I guess #Draghi's speech never made it to Asia. #Nikkei turns sharply lower. pic.twitter.com/uSbxCOAzIo |
| We’ll also be tracking reaction to yesterday’s ECB press conference, and monitoring events in Turkey as G20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs meet. | We’ll also be tracking reaction to yesterday’s ECB press conference, and monitoring events in Turkey as G20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs meet. |
| Updated at 7.49am BST | Updated at 7.49am BST |