As Vote Looms, Some in Guatemala Foresee More Frustration
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Version 0 of 1. GUATEMALA CITY — Guatemalans united to force their powerful president to step down. But now, many who joined the demonstration movement worry that creating lasting change, and rewriting the rules of their fragile democracy, may prove even harder. As former President Otto Pérez Molina faced his second day in court with the prospect of a corruption trial, some protesters worried that the country’s compromised judiciary might not follow through. And they expressed concern that Guatemala’s entrenched political class, including the new interim president, will hold onto power as it has so many times before. Most immediately, many of the young and middle-class Guatemalans who flooded the central square here every weekend for months simmered with frustration that a presidential and congressional vote they see as inherently flawed would go ahead as scheduled on Sunday. Their demands for postponement were rejected by the national election tribunal, and that decision was supported by both the United States Embassy and the Organization of American States. And so, the candidates whom Guatemalans will have to choose from Sunday mostly emerged from the same political mire that produced a series of dysfunctional governments that failed in the basic tasks of providing services and security. Polls suggest that as many as 30 percent of the 7.5 million eligible voters will abstain or annul their votes. The argument is that protesting the election itself is the only way to force accountability from politicians. “There is a true and widespread desire for more changes,” said Eduardo Stein, a former vice president and political analyst here, who argues instead that only voting will tell politicians that citizens will be watching their actions. “People feel that the traditional political parties have kidnapped representation.” Even in the moment of triumph, many of the activists say their fear is that the political classes would again find a way to hold on to their privilege. In that light, they see the call for a national discussion issued by the interim president, Alejandro Maldonado, a 79-year-old conservative politician, as a way to try to play for time even as the election moves ahead. “It’s clear that Otto Pérez Molina’s resignation and Alejandro Maldonado assuming the presidency were an escape valve for the 6 of September elections,” said Helen Mack, a respected human rights activist and security expert in Guatemala. Each of the leading candidates for the presidency have campaigned under one cloud or another. The front-runner for much of the campaign, Manuel Baldizón, a businessman and political boss from the northern jungle region of Petén, has a seemingly bottomless campaign chest. And there have long been questions about his links to the drug gangs that have operated freely near the Mexican border. His vice-presidential candidate, Edgar Barquín, a former central bank president, is charged in a money laundering case involving a financial operator for drug gangs. Mr. Baldizón, who pulled his party’s support for Mr. Pérez Molina only at the very last minute last week, has been running for the presidency since he lost four years ago, apparently immune to campaign spending limits. The same protesters who demanded Mr. Pérez Molina’s resignation reserved some of their disgust for Mr. Baldizón. “It’s not your turn,” they chanted, a reference to the fact that the past five presidents came in second place in the preceding election — a sign of how consistently the political class has recycled itself here. That disgust has left a television comedian with no political experience as the most viable challenger to Mr. Baldizón. Running on the slogan “Not Corrupt, Not a Thief,” Jimmy Morales bills himself as an independent. But his backing by a group of military veterans has raised concerns in a country still deeply scarred by a 36-year civil war marked by human rights atrocities by the security forces. And Mr. Morales has been ridiculed for having performed skits in blackface in the past. Another candidate, Sandra Torres, is a former first lady who divorced her husband in 2011 in a failed attempt to skirt electoral rules that prevented relatives of presidents from running. She, too, has associations that offer little hope she would align herself with the anticorruption citizens’ movement, given that some of her close family members have been accused of embezzling public funds. None of the candidates is expected to win the needed 50 percent on Sunday and the election is expected to go to a second round on Oct. 25. For the next four months, then, the government is in the hands of Mr. Maldonado, who was vice president under Mr. Pérez Molina. He proclaimed that he would run a clean government. But as a judge on the constitutional court, he helped overturn the genocide conviction of the former dictator Gen. Efraín Ríos Montt in the massacres of Mayan Indians in the worst periods of the civil war. It is that sort of reaction — the possible reversal of prosecutors’ efforts to bring Mr. Pérez Molina to account — that many Guatemalans fear could come next if popular pressure dissipates. The influence of powerful groups, from political party leaders who control vast unregulated donations to shady business owners who have been the counterparts to much of the government corruption, still weighs over many institutions here. In the past, they have used their influence to rig the selection of judges and harass prosecutors. With that in mind, many of the protesters say their movement must continue in order to give real reform a chance to take hold. Juan Luis Castro, 61, a carpenter who attended a small rally outside the electoral tribunal on Friday, said the events of the past few days were just the beginning, and that protests should continue to put pressure on politicians. “Hopefully we will choose a Congress with a conscience,” he said. |