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Aung San Suu Kyi says crucial transition period will follow Myanmar election Aung San Suu Kyi delivers warning as Myanmar election campaign begins
(about 9 hours later)
Aung San Suu Kyi has kicked off campaigning for Myanmar’s first free general election since the end of military rule, saying it will be a crucial turning point and called on the global community to monitor the outcome. Campaigning for Myanmar’s first free general election has begun, with Aung San Suu Kyi warning that the world must scrutinise the November poll and, crucially, make sure that the results are respected.
The opposition leader said elections should be free and fair, but “even more important” would be the transition period that follows. “A smooth and tranquil transition is almost more important than a free and fair election,” Suu Kyi said in a video address posted on her Facebook page.
The NLD is expected to win the election, which marks a major shift in Myanmar’s political landscape, giving the platform to democratic activists shut out of public life during nearly half a century of strict military rule that ended in 2011. Her National League for Democracy (NLD) party, which has been campaigning since 1988 for an end to military rule, is widely expected to win. But the party has bitter memories of its landslide victory in the 1990 general elections, which was ignored by the junta.
The NLD won general elections in 1990 in a landslide but the junta did not recognise the result. The NLD boycotted the next nationwide poll, which was not held until two decades later and also condemned by international observers for widespread irregularities.
“For the first time in decades our people will have a real chance of bringing about real change. This is a chance that we cannot afford to let slip,” said Aung San Suu Kyi. “The general elections that will be taking place on 8 November in Burma will be a crucial turning point for our country. For the first time in decades, our people will have a real chance of bringing about real change,” Suu Kyi, who was brought up in India and studied at Oxford University, said in English.
“A smooth and tranquil transition is almost more important than a free and fair election.” “This is a chance that we cannot afford to let slip. We hope that the whole world understands how important it is for us to have free and fair elections, and to make sure that the results of such elections are respected by all concerned,” the Nobel laureate said.
The campaign begins less then a month after the powerful parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann – a major presidential contender and opponent of President Thein Sein – was removed as ruling party leader in a dramatic shake-up of the political establishment. “Please help us by observing what happens before the elections, during the elections, and, crucially, after the elections.”
Related: The Guardian view on the ousting of Aung San Suu Kyi’s political ally | EditorialRelated: The Guardian view on the ousting of Aung San Suu Kyi’s political ally | Editorial
Shwe Mann’s close relationship with Aung San Suu Kyi was regarded with suspicion by the military. Thein Sein’s move has stoked fears that his government and its allies will resist any bid to push them from power even if the opposition wins big. Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, emerged from international pariah status when a semi-civilian government took power four years ago and initiated a wave of change after nearly half a century of military rule.
“Please help us by observing what happens before the elections, during the elections and, crucially, after the elections,” Aung San Suu Kyi said. President Thein Sein, a former general, pushed through reforms that led to the dropping of western sanctions. The US president, Barack Obama, has twice visited the south-east Asian country in a clear display of approval.
The Nobel laureate will meet her supporters on Thursday in the eastern Kayah region where Soe Thein –  the powerful minister of the president’s office and architect of Thein Sein’s economic reforms – is running for a seat in the election. Yet the NLD and activists say many reforms have merely opened the economy. The streets of the capital, Yangon, are filled with foreign cars, driven by a growing middle-class who own iPhones. KFC opened in June, the first major western fast-food chain.
Her appearance is a gesture of confidence that the NLD can defeat the president’s closest supporters and their ruling army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Political prisoners remain in jail, the media is strictly controlled and inequality is entrenched.
The ballot will determine representatives of the bicameral parliament and regional chambers for five-year terms. The plea from Suu Kyi, who spent 15 years in detention, on the first day of her campaign comes in the wake of the shock purge last month of Shwe Mann, the speaker of the lower house of parliament and former chair of the ruling party.
The upper and lower houses will both nominate a presidential candidate, who must secure the support of a majority of members, and the military – which under the junta-drafted constitution holds a quarter of the seats – will nominate a third. He was considered a bridging figure between the democracy movement and the junta – a rare member of the establishment who was also an ally to the “Lady”, as Suu Kyi is known in Myanmar.
Parliament will then vote on which of the three candidates will be president and the president will form the government. This meant he posed a distinct threat to the generals, who are historically paranoid by Suu Kyi’s domestic and international popularity and have tried to keep her at arms’ length, away from politics.
“It’s really the president and the president’s administration, rather than the biggest party in parliament, that determines what happens next in the reform process,” said Richard Horsey, an independent political analyst and a former UN official in Myanmar. Shwe Mann’s swift removal from the ruling party will be seen as a reminder to Suu Kyi that the army is willing to take measures to ensure its dominance and may do so following an NLD win. The ruling Union Solidarity and Development party is effectively a political extension of the military.
The constitution effectively bars Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming president even if the NLD wins a majority. It also gives the army a veto over constitutional change. About 30 million people are eligible to vote. Ninety parties are contesting the elections. The NLD won 43 of 44 seats it contested in a 2012 byelection.
The NLD’s power in parliament will depend on whether it has enough members to nominate a presidential candidate on its own. With few credible opinion polls in the impoverished country that is unclear. Suu Kyi’s request for the world to keep its eyes on the country after the elections hints at concerns over the process of choosing the next president.
The USDP, which is dominated by military and civil servants who retired to become candidates, will be the NLD’s biggest opponent. The upcoming ballot is for seats in both houses of parliament for five-year terms. However, a leader will not be chosen until three months later when both houses – in which the military is guaranteed a quarter of the seats under the junta-drafted constitution – nominate two candidates. The army will also nominate a candidate.
The last general election was held under military rule in 2010 and widely condemned as rigged in favour of the USDP, which includes remnants of the old regime and business allies, and it is expected to lose a significant number of seats. Parliament later votes on which of the three candidates will be president.
Aung Suu Kyi was under house arrest at the time of 2010 vote and her party did not take part, but she was released six days later. The NLD agreed to join the quasi-civilian system in 2012 and later won 43 seats in parliament in by-elections. A report by the International Crisis Group said the three months between the election and the presidential decision “will be a time of considerable uncertainty, possible tension, and intense behind-the-scenes negotiation”.
The opposition leader is standing in the constituency of Kawhmu, a southern delta town outside the biggest city, Yangon. “The commander-in-chief has voiced support for the democratic electoral process and has undoubtedly foreseen the prospect of strong support for the NLD. But this does not mean he would be comfortable with all the potential implications of such an outcome,” it said, referring to the hugely influential army chief Gen Min Aung Hlaing.
The NLD leader is barred from running for president because of a constitution provision excluding those with foreign children from the top office. Her late husband was British and she has two British sons.
Further dampening hopes of reform, the election commission last month said that political parties and candidates were forbidden from criticising the military during their allocated 15-minute speeches on state media.
Suu Kyi will spend the next two months travelling the country campaigning, mirroring days-long trips she made in 1989 during the nascent days of the democracy movement before the NLD was shut down.
During the ensuing years, she was partly protected from being thrown into jail like other pro-democracy activists by the fact that her father is a national hero, having brought about the country’s independence.