The Guardian view on Podemos: rage against austerity is not enough
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Version 0 of 1. As Greece heads yet again for elections, with Syriza’s leader, Alexis Tsipras, facing a major test now that he has accepted the stringent economic terms laid out by creditors, the fallout will be watched closely in another country in Europe’s south where traditional parties have come under the assault of new grassroots movements: Spain. Indications are that the rise of Podemos, the “We can” movement that grew out of Spanish anti-austerity street protests, has slowed, if not stalled. This summer, opinion polls placed Podemos third, with around 15% of votes, behind the ruling rightwing People’s party (28%) and the PSOE socialist party (24%). That is a far cry from the peak reached by Podemos at the start of the year, when it seemed set to overtake the socialists, just one year after its fiery, anti-establishment agenda had first burst on to the scene. The party’s charismatic leader, Pablo Iglesias, seems to be taking stock of the evolving Greek situation. The party has recruited Thomas Piketty to boost its economic credentials on an anti-inequality platform, but there is less talk now of upending the continental order. The split that has occurred within Syriza – part of which has now broken off in outright rejection of the creditors’ deal – is an obvious warning. Mr Iglesias must equally be mindful not to discourage middle-class Spanish voters, who will have watched Greece’s travails and cash-machine queues, and perhaps felt trepidation about where political turmoil can lead. After gestures of solidarity towards Syriza earlier this year, Mr Iglesias is today intent on marking a certain distance. He repeatedly says “Spain is not Greece”. That is true. There are signs of economic recovery in Spain, which the government plans to capitalise on. Spain’s mainstream socialist party – now with a new, more appealing leader – has not been destroyed like Greece’s Pasok. In a fragmented political scene, Podemos has also come under strong competition from another newcomer, the centre-right Ciudadanos party, which has mirrored some of its tactics in the media and on social networks. Podemos can no longer hope to replicate Syriza’s spectacular rise. But it has better chances of avoiding Syriza’s just as spectacular difficulties. It has already demonstrated some pragmatism in forging local coalitions in the regional and municipal elections earlier this year. It has dropped some of its more radical positions. There are no longer demands for a eurozone exit, a universal living wage and a citizens’ audit of the public debt. Instead, the focus is on protections against further social cuts. Syriza’s difficulties have acted, it seems, as a moderating factor for Podemos. Mr Iglesias acknowledges that his party is now set to appear more “normalised”, even as it continues to court the many disgruntled in a nation where unemployment stands at 22%. Podemos will at some stage probably be faced with the choice of entering – or not – into a government coalition with political forces that it has continuously castigated as “la casta”, the establishment. That would pose dilemmas, but they are impressive dilemmas to have for a party that was created from scratch just 18 months ago. Podemos is the product of a wind of change in Spain that has blown against the corruption of an old political system. Its next challenge will be to harness that wind to change the system rather than merely battering windily against it from the margins. |