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Further sabotage of the Iran deal won't bring success — only embarrassment Further sabotage of the Iran deal won't bring success — only embarrassment
(about 4 hours later)
Over the past two months, since the Iran nuclear deal was inked by the US and world powers, opponents of the accord have delivered fiery speeches predicting dire consequences (another Holocaust, nuclear war), poured millions of dollars into fiery television advertisements (does your dog have a fallout shelter?) and vowed to stop at nothing to take the deal down. On Thursday, however, the deal overcame its most harrowing obstacle – Congress – and the opponents went down with a whimper, not a bang.Over the past two months, since the Iran nuclear deal was inked by the US and world powers, opponents of the accord have delivered fiery speeches predicting dire consequences (another Holocaust, nuclear war), poured millions of dollars into fiery television advertisements (does your dog have a fallout shelter?) and vowed to stop at nothing to take the deal down. On Thursday, however, the deal overcame its most harrowing obstacle – Congress – and the opponents went down with a whimper, not a bang.
In the end it was an anti-climactic moment: a resolution in the Senate disapproving of the deal (which would have blocked its implementation) failed to achieve the 60 votes needed to pass a procedural threshold. The vote fell largely along party lines, with a only a handful of Senate Democrats siding with Republican colleagues against the deal.In the end it was an anti-climactic moment: a resolution in the Senate disapproving of the deal (which would have blocked its implementation) failed to achieve the 60 votes needed to pass a procedural threshold. The vote fell largely along party lines, with a only a handful of Senate Democrats siding with Republican colleagues against the deal.
Without the resolution, it doesn’t matter what the House of Representatives does – both chambers would have needed to disapprove of the deal in order to pass the law or even force Obama into a making good on his threat to veto, which was all but assured to be sustained by a third of one chamber or the other. But that doesn’t mean House Republicans are done opposing it.Without the resolution, it doesn’t matter what the House of Representatives does – both chambers would have needed to disapprove of the deal in order to pass the law or even force Obama into a making good on his threat to veto, which was all but assured to be sustained by a third of one chamber or the other. But that doesn’t mean House Republicans are done opposing it.
As if to prove the point that their opposition to the deal was a matter of politics, not policy, they are treating the accord the same way they did Obamacare: a chaotic scramble to prepare legal challenges, put forward new bills to gut the deal by piecemeal means other than disapproval and even a last-ditch effort to revise the original resolution. So far, the GOP efforts appear to have achieved the impossible: unifying a normally unruly Democratic caucus, including those who apposed the nuclear accord, against efforts to kill it. As if to prove the point that their opposition to the deal was a matter of politics, not policy, they are treating the accord the same way they did Obamacare: a chaotic scramble to prepare legal challenges, put forward new bills to gut the deal by piecemeal means other than disapproval and even a last-ditch effort to revise the original resolution. So far, the GOP efforts appear to have achieved the impossible: unifying a normally unruly Democratic caucus, including those who opposed the nuclear accord, against efforts to kill it.
Some of these Johnny-come-lately efforts to derail the Iran deal will carry the imprimatur of the flagship pro-Israel lobby group here, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac). But it doesn’t appear to be the juggernaut it once was, historically able to wield huge legislative influence thanks to a wealthy and well-connected donor base.Some of these Johnny-come-lately efforts to derail the Iran deal will carry the imprimatur of the flagship pro-Israel lobby group here, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac). But it doesn’t appear to be the juggernaut it once was, historically able to wield huge legislative influence thanks to a wealthy and well-connected donor base.
Related: Does Obama's Iran deal victory mark a turning point in US-Israeli relations?Related: Does Obama's Iran deal victory mark a turning point in US-Israeli relations?
The waning clout stems from the lobby siding with the revanchist Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, whose Iran strategy since the 2012 US presidential campaign has been to unabashedly side with Republican hawks. Aipac’s alignment with the position effectively caused the group to marginalize itself; the GOP is now the only place where Aipac can today find lockstep support. The tens of millions Aipac spent lobbying against the deal were unable to obscure this dynamic.The waning clout stems from the lobby siding with the revanchist Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, whose Iran strategy since the 2012 US presidential campaign has been to unabashedly side with Republican hawks. Aipac’s alignment with the position effectively caused the group to marginalize itself; the GOP is now the only place where Aipac can today find lockstep support. The tens of millions Aipac spent lobbying against the deal were unable to obscure this dynamic.
We may not look back at this as a sea change – some Senate Democrats who held firm against opposition to the deal are working with Aipac to pass subsequent legislation that contains poison pills designed to kill it – but rather as a rising tide eroding the once sturdy bipartisan pro-Israeli government consensus on Capitol Hill. Some relationships have been frayed; previously stalwart allies of the Israel’s interests, such as Vice President Joe Biden, have reportedly said the Iran deal fight soured them on Aipac.We may not look back at this as a sea change – some Senate Democrats who held firm against opposition to the deal are working with Aipac to pass subsequent legislation that contains poison pills designed to kill it – but rather as a rising tide eroding the once sturdy bipartisan pro-Israeli government consensus on Capitol Hill. Some relationships have been frayed; previously stalwart allies of the Israel’s interests, such as Vice President Joe Biden, have reportedly said the Iran deal fight soured them on Aipac.
Even with the boundaries of its abilities on display, however, Aipac will continue its efforts. “We urge those who have blocked a vote today to reconsider,” the group said in a spin-heavy statement casting a pretty objective defeat as victory with the headline, “Bipartisan Senate Majority Rejects Iran Nuclear Deal.” The group’s allies in the Senate Republican Party have already promised to rehash the procedural vote next week, and its lobbyists are still rallying for support in the House. But the Senate’s refusal to halt US support for the deal means that Senate Democrats are unlikely to reconsider, especially after witnessing Thursday’s Republican hijinx in the House. These ploys look like little more than efforts to embarrass Obama into needing to cast a veto.Even with the boundaries of its abilities on display, however, Aipac will continue its efforts. “We urge those who have blocked a vote today to reconsider,” the group said in a spin-heavy statement casting a pretty objective defeat as victory with the headline, “Bipartisan Senate Majority Rejects Iran Nuclear Deal.” The group’s allies in the Senate Republican Party have already promised to rehash the procedural vote next week, and its lobbyists are still rallying for support in the House. But the Senate’s refusal to halt US support for the deal means that Senate Democrats are unlikely to reconsider, especially after witnessing Thursday’s Republican hijinx in the House. These ploys look like little more than efforts to embarrass Obama into needing to cast a veto.
If Republicans’ rhetoric leading up to to their flop in the Senate – Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina took to the floor during the debate and pulled out an old trick from the run-up to the Iraq war: blaming Iran for 9/11 and saying a failure to act would result in a worse attack – is any indication, even Democrats like the pro-Israel hawk Chuck Schumer will find it untenable to sidle up to Aipac and the Republicans.If Republicans’ rhetoric leading up to to their flop in the Senate – Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina took to the floor during the debate and pulled out an old trick from the run-up to the Iraq war: blaming Iran for 9/11 and saying a failure to act would result in a worse attack – is any indication, even Democrats like the pro-Israel hawk Chuck Schumer will find it untenable to sidle up to Aipac and the Republicans.
Opponents of the deal want to say the Democrats played politics instead of evaluating the deal honestly. That charge is ironic, to say the least, since most experts agree the nuclear deal is sound and the best agreement diplomacy could achieve. But there were politics at play: rather than siding with Obama, Congressional Democrats lined up against the Republican/Netanyahu alliance. The adamance of Aipac ended up working against its stated interests.Opponents of the deal want to say the Democrats played politics instead of evaluating the deal honestly. That charge is ironic, to say the least, since most experts agree the nuclear deal is sound and the best agreement diplomacy could achieve. But there were politics at play: rather than siding with Obama, Congressional Democrats lined up against the Republican/Netanyahu alliance. The adamance of Aipac ended up working against its stated interests.
Groups like Aipac will go on touting their bipartisan bona fides without considering that their adoption of Netanyahu’s own partisanship doomed them to a partisan result. Meanwhile, the ensuing fight, which will no doubt bring more of the legislative chaos we saw this week, won’t be a cakewalk, so to speak, but will put the lie to Aipac’s claims it has a bipartisan consensus behind it. Despite their best efforts, Obama won’t be the one embarrassed by the scrambling on the horizon.Groups like Aipac will go on touting their bipartisan bona fides without considering that their adoption of Netanyahu’s own partisanship doomed them to a partisan result. Meanwhile, the ensuing fight, which will no doubt bring more of the legislative chaos we saw this week, won’t be a cakewalk, so to speak, but will put the lie to Aipac’s claims it has a bipartisan consensus behind it. Despite their best efforts, Obama won’t be the one embarrassed by the scrambling on the horizon.