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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Leadership result shows dramatic shifts within Labour party | Leadership result shows dramatic shifts within Labour party |
| (5 months later) | |
| Labour’s leadership election result does not just show Jeremy Corbyn has won handsomely but also how fast and why the party is changing. | Labour’s leadership election result does not just show Jeremy Corbyn has won handsomely but also how fast and why the party is changing. |
| There has been a huge increase in individual party membership, but the decline in trade union activity is happening possibly at a rate that will bring the future financial basis of the party into question. | There has been a huge increase in individual party membership, but the decline in trade union activity is happening possibly at a rate that will bring the future financial basis of the party into question. |
| It also opens doors for the coming Conservative attack that the Labour party itself, and not just its new leader is now a leftwing risk. | It also opens doors for the coming Conservative attack that the Labour party itself, and not just its new leader is now a leftwing risk. |
| Labour officials had initially wanted to hide how each section of the Labour’s electoral system had voted but in an era of transparency were forced to backtrack. | Labour officials had initially wanted to hide how each section of the Labour’s electoral system had voted but in an era of transparency were forced to backtrack. |
| Critics of this secrecy said it would be impossible to judge whether the new system introduced for the first time in this election had worked. | Critics of this secrecy said it would be impossible to judge whether the new system introduced for the first time in this election had worked. |
| It has revealed three big truths: | It has revealed three big truths: |
| Registered supporters | Registered supporters |
| The results show registered members paying £3 to vote are to the left of the full party members and largely signed up to support Corbyn. A total of 88,499 supporters paid £3 and voted Corbyn out of the 105,000 registered supporters who voted in total. In contrast, Liz Kendall won only 2,500 on this section. There is nothing wrong in this – Corbyn made a greater effort to recruit these registered supporters to the party, and it is the fault of the other three candidates if they failed to galvanise people to vote. But Labour had hoped registered members would be a way of inducing all kinds of Labour voters to become involved in party leadership elections. That did not happen. | The results show registered members paying £3 to vote are to the left of the full party members and largely signed up to support Corbyn. A total of 88,499 supporters paid £3 and voted Corbyn out of the 105,000 registered supporters who voted in total. In contrast, Liz Kendall won only 2,500 on this section. There is nothing wrong in this – Corbyn made a greater effort to recruit these registered supporters to the party, and it is the fault of the other three candidates if they failed to galvanise people to vote. But Labour had hoped registered members would be a way of inducing all kinds of Labour voters to become involved in party leadership elections. That did not happen. |
| Corbyn won in the first round among registered supporters with a massive 83.7% margin. | Corbyn won in the first round among registered supporters with a massive 83.7% margin. |
| The union link | The union link |
| The union’s relationship with the party is changing and shrinking. In the 1994 leadership election (won by Tony Blair) nearly 800,000 affiliated union members voted. In 2010 leadership ballot papers were circulated to 2.7 million political levy-payers including some that were already party members. At that time, less than 10% voted ie 270,000. | The union’s relationship with the party is changing and shrinking. In the 1994 leadership election (won by Tony Blair) nearly 800,000 affiliated union members voted. In 2010 leadership ballot papers were circulated to 2.7 million political levy-payers including some that were already party members. At that time, less than 10% voted ie 270,000. |
| This time ballot papers were only sent to political levy-payers who had been recruited to become registered party supporters by their union. A total of 148,192 ballot papers were sent out to this group but only 71,546 were returned. | This time ballot papers were only sent to political levy-payers who had been recruited to become registered party supporters by their union. A total of 148,192 ballot papers were sent out to this group but only 71,546 were returned. |
| This means the importance of the union vote relative to party members is is long-term decline. In 1994 nearly 800,000 union members and 170,000 members voted in the leadership election. | This means the importance of the union vote relative to party members is is long-term decline. In 1994 nearly 800,000 union members and 170,000 members voted in the leadership election. |
| In 2010 it was 250,000 union members and 127,000 party members respectively, with the ratio falling from 5:1 to 2:1. In this election 245,520 party members voted, only 71,546 union members a ratio of about 3.5 members to every one affiliate. | |
| This is the first time the number of union members voting is lower than party members. | This is the first time the number of union members voting is lower than party members. |
| This has long-term consequences for the future funding of the Labour party, and provides arguments the government can deploy as they use the trade union bill in the Commons on Monday to break the link between the unions and Labour funding. | This has long-term consequences for the future funding of the Labour party, and provides arguments the government can deploy as they use the trade union bill in the Commons on Monday to break the link between the unions and Labour funding. |
| The government argument is that it should be made harder for the union leaderships to use their political funds to finance the Labour party. For that reason, the weakness of the link between the unions and the party displayed in this ballot – only 71,546 voting – is significant. | The government argument is that it should be made harder for the union leaderships to use their political funds to finance the Labour party. For that reason, the weakness of the link between the unions and the party displayed in this ballot – only 71,546 voting – is significant. |
| Finally these results confirm that the party itself is changing. | Finally these results confirm that the party itself is changing. |
| The party’s full membership has recruited 105,000 members since this year’s general election adding to the 187,000 prior to the election. This additional wave came in two stages, first the recruits upset by Miliband’s defeat followed by a wave of Corbyn supporters. | The party’s full membership has recruited 105,000 members since this year’s general election adding to the 187,000 prior to the election. This additional wave came in two stages, first the recruits upset by Miliband’s defeat followed by a wave of Corbyn supporters. |
| This time 245,520 of them voted for Corbyn – the contrast with 2010 is striking. By the final round among party members David Miliband received 54.4% of the vote to Ed Miliband’s 45.6%. David Miliband won outright in 540 constituencies (more than 85% of the total), whereas Ed Miliband won outright in just 73 (12%). Diane Abbott, the leftwing candidate at that time, did not win a single constituency. | This time 245,520 of them voted for Corbyn – the contrast with 2010 is striking. By the final round among party members David Miliband received 54.4% of the vote to Ed Miliband’s 45.6%. David Miliband won outright in 540 constituencies (more than 85% of the total), whereas Ed Miliband won outright in just 73 (12%). Diane Abbott, the leftwing candidate at that time, did not win a single constituency. |
| The contrast could not be greater and it is not all about politics. David Miliband had name recognition in the party, but it does mean over the past four years in successive waves the party has changed fundamentally. | The contrast could not be greater and it is not all about politics. David Miliband had name recognition in the party, but it does mean over the past four years in successive waves the party has changed fundamentally. |