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Corbyn has a huge mandate but Labour simply has to win votes from Tories Corbyn has a huge mandate but Labour simply has to win votes from Tories
(35 minutes later)
The polls, or more precisely, the one company that did poll, was right.The polls, or more precisely, the one company that did poll, was right.
Jeremy Corbyn won the Labour leadership election in a landslide with 59.5% of the vote. Which was pretty much what YouGov had in August, saying that 57% of the party selectorate would vote for the MP from Islington North.Jeremy Corbyn won the Labour leadership election in a landslide with 59.5% of the vote. Which was pretty much what YouGov had in August, saying that 57% of the party selectorate would vote for the MP from Islington North.
There’s little to dispute in the size of the Corbyn mandate. He won an overwhelming 84% of the vote among party supporters, those that signed up to the party by paying £3.There’s little to dispute in the size of the Corbyn mandate. He won an overwhelming 84% of the vote among party supporters, those that signed up to the party by paying £3.
With members of those organisations associated with the Labour movement, he won just under 60% of the ballots cast. Even among the longer-serving party members he took just under 50% of the vote – 49.6% – an impressive first-round haul in a four-horse race.With members of those organisations associated with the Labour movement, he won just under 60% of the ballots cast. Even among the longer-serving party members he took just under 50% of the vote – 49.6% – an impressive first-round haul in a four-horse race.
Andy Burnham – the frontrunner when the contest first kicked off – and Yvette Cooper both won less than 20% of first preferences. And in a disaster for the Blarities, Liz Kendall got fewer than 20,000 votes (4.5% of first preferences).Andy Burnham – the frontrunner when the contest first kicked off – and Yvette Cooper both won less than 20% of first preferences. And in a disaster for the Blarities, Liz Kendall got fewer than 20,000 votes (4.5% of first preferences).
Make no mistake: across the board, it’s a decisive victory. A plebiscite. Larger even than Tony Blair’s in 1994.Make no mistake: across the board, it’s a decisive victory. A plebiscite. Larger even than Tony Blair’s in 1994.
Blair won with 57% in round one in 94 -- can Jez equal that? https://t.co/aN5ZWGWYsv h/t @joelondon76Blair won with 57% in round one in 94 -- can Jez equal that? https://t.co/aN5ZWGWYsv h/t @joelondon76
The deputy leadership contest was slightly closer, but the result never really in doubt. Once preferences were allocated, Tom Watson passed the 50% mark in the third round. He won nearly 40% of first preferences. Stella Creasy won just under 20% of first preferences, and ended her run on 26.4%.The deputy leadership contest was slightly closer, but the result never really in doubt. Once preferences were allocated, Tom Watson passed the 50% mark in the third round. He won nearly 40% of first preferences. Stella Creasy won just under 20% of first preferences, and ended her run on 26.4%.
The scale of the mandate handed to both Corybn and Watson, and the voice of Labour’s supporters, are staggeringly clear. The scale of the mandate handed to both Corbyn and Watson, and the voices of Labour’s supporters, are staggeringly clear.
However the party electorate is very different from the demographics needed to win a general election. The question for Corbyn is whether he can translate an enthusiastic band of supporters to a broader coalition of voters come a general election. However, the party electorate is very different from the demographics needed to win a general election. The question for Corbyn is whether he can translate an enthusiastic band of supporters to a broader coalition of voters come a general election.
Rewind to May and the general election won by David Cameron’s Conservatives. The less the electorate looked like London - young, socially liberal, ethnically diverse and highly educated, the less well Labour did. Rewind to May and the general election won by David Cameron’s Conservatives. The less the electorate looked like London – young, socially liberal, ethnically diverse and highly educated, the less well Labour did.
Labour faces three hurdles now:Labour faces three hurdles now:
1) At the last election, the Conservatives did disproportionately well with voters in the highest turnout groups. Those are voters aged 65 or above and among ABs, the Tories registered a positive swing from Labour. And amongst both groups, the Tories’ lead over Labour was a greater margin than the overall election result. 1) At the last election, the Conservatives did disproportionately well with voters in the highest turnout groups. Those are voters aged 65 or above and among ABs the Tories registered a positive swing from Labour. And among both groups, the Tories’ lead over Labour was a greater margin than the overall election result.
Meanwhile, Labour only did well among 18- to 34-year-olds, among renters, with voters in social class DE and among black, Asian and minority ethnic (BME) voters. That’s an achievement, but with all these groups turnout was lower than the national average. Meanwhile, Labour only did well among 18- to 34-year-olds, among renters, with voters in social class DE and among black, Asian and minority ethnic (BME) voters. That’s an achievement, but with all these groups, turnout was lower than the national average.
Moreover, Labour failed to make inroads into C1 voters, the country’s largest chunk of the electorate. There simply aren’t enough ballots in Labour’s current coalition of voters and supporters: Corbyn has to break out.Moreover, Labour failed to make inroads into C1 voters, the country’s largest chunk of the electorate. There simply aren’t enough ballots in Labour’s current coalition of voters and supporters: Corbyn has to break out.
2) In order to win a majority in 2020, Labour will need to win about 100 more seats that it did in May. Even if the party were to reverse all its losses in Scotland, which it won’t, it would still need the majority of its parliamentary gains to come from the Conservative party.2) In order to win a majority in 2020, Labour will need to win about 100 more seats that it did in May. Even if the party were to reverse all its losses in Scotland, which it won’t, it would still need the majority of its parliamentary gains to come from the Conservative party.
That means that the party has to win over marginal voters in England and Wales in substantial numbers as well as make some gains from the SNP. This means that the party has to win over marginal voters in England and Wales in substantial numbers as well as make some gains from the SNP.
With the Lib Dems reduced to eight seats, and the only one Green seat, the fact of the matter is that most of the constituencies Labour needs to gain are currently held by the Tories – and in many of these the swing will need to be significant. With the Lib Dems reduced to eight seats, and only one Green seat, the fact of the matter is that most of the constituencies Labour needs to gain are currently held by the Tories – and in many of these, the swing will need to be significant.
3) Those that switched to the Conservatives from Labour cited Ed Miliband’s credentials to be prime minister as the main explanation for moving across, followed by Labour’s economic credibility and competence, worried that the party would spend and borrow too much.3) Those that switched to the Conservatives from Labour cited Ed Miliband’s credentials to be prime minister as the main explanation for moving across, followed by Labour’s economic credibility and competence, worried that the party would spend and borrow too much.
More from Project Red Dawn: Top 3 reasons for switching away from Labour - Defectors to Con v Defectors from UKIP: pic.twitter.com/SGamVl9Z55More from Project Red Dawn: Top 3 reasons for switching away from Labour - Defectors to Con v Defectors from UKIP: pic.twitter.com/SGamVl9Z55
The question for these voters then, is whether Corbyn is able to generate a level of credibility that Miliband couldn’t reach.The question for these voters then, is whether Corbyn is able to generate a level of credibility that Miliband couldn’t reach.
In a focus group by BritainThinks for the Guardian, most respondents said that while they knew what Corbyn stood for and feel his values are clear, he was still viewed as a turnoff for most 2015 Lib Dem and Tory voters interviewed.In a focus group by BritainThinks for the Guardian, most respondents said that while they knew what Corbyn stood for and feel his values are clear, he was still viewed as a turnoff for most 2015 Lib Dem and Tory voters interviewed.
He is also seen in equal measure as both genuine and compassionate – but also as dangerous and untrustworthy. From these responses we can deduce that Corbyn will be perceived as divisive by many voters, which is not usually the path to electoral success. Some will strongly agree with his views, others will strongly disagree, leaving little room between the two.He is also seen in equal measure as both genuine and compassionate – but also as dangerous and untrustworthy. From these responses we can deduce that Corbyn will be perceived as divisive by many voters, which is not usually the path to electoral success. Some will strongly agree with his views, others will strongly disagree, leaving little room between the two.
However you slice the numbers and the electoral map, the road back to power will have to run through winning back those Conservative voters. Take the wrong turn and Labour risks reducing its coalition of voters even further.However you slice the numbers and the electoral map, the road back to power will have to run through winning back those Conservative voters. Take the wrong turn and Labour risks reducing its coalition of voters even further.