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| Jeremy Corbyn: is he really unelectable as prime minister? | Jeremy Corbyn: is he really unelectable as prime minister? |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The controversy in Labour circles about Jeremy Corbyn centres on the issue of whether or not he is electable as prime minister. While there are divisions about policy, all Labour members are signed up to his broad goals of social justice, equality and peace, but there is profound disagreement about whether or not he can get the party into government. | The controversy in Labour circles about Jeremy Corbyn centres on the issue of whether or not he is electable as prime minister. While there are divisions about policy, all Labour members are signed up to his broad goals of social justice, equality and peace, but there is profound disagreement about whether or not he can get the party into government. |
| People on both sides have very entrenched views. There is no simple way of resolving the question, but here are 10 reflections that may shed some light on what has become the key question in British politics. | People on both sides have very entrenched views. There is no simple way of resolving the question, but here are 10 reflections that may shed some light on what has become the key question in British politics. |
| 1. “Leftwing” is a catch-all label that covers many aspects of Corbyn’s politics, some of which are more popular than others | 1. “Leftwing” is a catch-all label that covers many aspects of Corbyn’s politics, some of which are more popular than others |
| Corbyn is happy to call himself a socialist, and no one has objected to him being called leftwing. It is not always a helpful phrase, however, and his supporters have objected to him being described as far left because it implies he is extreme, and at the margins of public opinion. | Corbyn is happy to call himself a socialist, and no one has objected to him being called leftwing. It is not always a helpful phrase, however, and his supporters have objected to him being described as far left because it implies he is extreme, and at the margins of public opinion. |
| In some respects he probably is, but in others he isn’t. His support for expansionary economic policies has more mainstream support than is commonly assumed and some of his ideas, such as nationalising the railways – a policy often dismissed as irresponsible lefty wishful thinking – have overwhelming popular support. | |
| 2. “Leftwingers” can win, but it does not happen often | 2. “Leftwingers” can win, but it does not happen often |
| The Blairite rule that Labour loses general elections when it heads left has generally been true in recent years, but Ken Livingstone offers Corbyn some hope, as he said himself this morning. Dismissed as being on the lunatic fringe, he won two elections as London mayor and ran the capital very effectively. | The Blairite rule that Labour loses general elections when it heads left has generally been true in recent years, but Ken Livingstone offers Corbyn some hope, as he said himself this morning. Dismissed as being on the lunatic fringe, he won two elections as London mayor and ran the capital very effectively. |
| It is interesting to speculate on what would have happened if Corbyn had stood for the mayoral nomination. While his chances of becoming prime minister may seem remote, given the support he is attracting now, if he had entered that contest he would probably be a dead cert to replace Boris Johnson next year. | It is interesting to speculate on what would have happened if Corbyn had stood for the mayoral nomination. While his chances of becoming prime minister may seem remote, given the support he is attracting now, if he had entered that contest he would probably be a dead cert to replace Boris Johnson next year. |
| 3. Corbyn is ignoring what many people believe are the lessons of the general election | 3. Corbyn is ignoring what many people believe are the lessons of the general election |
| It would be wrong to say there is a consensus about why Labour lost the election, but there is quite a lot of evidence to suggest that a huge problem, in England and Wales at least, was that voters did not support the party on the economy, immigration or welfare. | It would be wrong to say there is a consensus about why Labour lost the election, but there is quite a lot of evidence to suggest that a huge problem, in England and Wales at least, was that voters did not support the party on the economy, immigration or welfare. |
| Read the Feeling Blue report from James Morris, Labour’s pollster; the Reconnecting Labour report from Dan Jarvis MP; the review carried out by Jon Cruddas MP; and Lord Ashcroft’s Project Red Dawn report. The academic Matthew Goodwin made a similar point on Twitter yesterday. | Read the Feeling Blue report from James Morris, Labour’s pollster; the Reconnecting Labour report from Dan Jarvis MP; the review carried out by Jon Cruddas MP; and Lord Ashcroft’s Project Red Dawn report. The academic Matthew Goodwin made a similar point on Twitter yesterday. |
| 1/2 Cameron to say Corbyn Lab "no longer represents working ppl" & "committed to more spending & borrowing", shows how easy Cons will... | 1/2 Cameron to say Corbyn Lab "no longer represents working ppl" & "committed to more spending & borrowing", shows how easy Cons will... |
| 2/2 deal with Corbyn. Lab has big prob with both groups: econ disaffected w.class & majority who accept cuts/see Lab econ as part of problem | 2/2 deal with Corbyn. Lab has big prob with both groups: econ disaffected w.class & majority who accept cuts/see Lab econ as part of problem |
| Tim Bale, another academic, has said the choice facing political parties ultimately boils down to “a choice between ‘preference shaping’ [the heroic assumption that you can get voters to see things your way] and ‘preference accommodation’ [the assumption that you need to meet them halfway].” | Tim Bale, another academic, has said the choice facing political parties ultimately boils down to “a choice between ‘preference shaping’ [the heroic assumption that you can get voters to see things your way] and ‘preference accommodation’ [the assumption that you need to meet them halfway].” |
| Corbyn’s victory can be seen as Labour putting a monumental bet on preference shaping. It can work but, as Bale has pointed out, it can fail too. | Corbyn’s victory can be seen as Labour putting a monumental bet on preference shaping. It can work but, as Bale has pointed out, it can fail too. |
| 4. A lot depends on how well a leader can change public opinion, and as yet there is little evidence that Corbyn will be a great persuader | 4. A lot depends on how well a leader can change public opinion, and as yet there is little evidence that Corbyn will be a great persuader |
| He has, of course, had a remarkable election victory, but that does not seem to be because he has changed minds. As he has suggested himself in interviews, it is more because he became an outlet for voters fed up with the Labour establishment who had at least found a candidate who represented their views. | He has, of course, had a remarkable election victory, but that does not seem to be because he has changed minds. As he has suggested himself in interviews, it is more because he became an outlet for voters fed up with the Labour establishment who had at least found a candidate who represented their views. |
| He has shown little interest in what a Labour leader might have to say to win over voters who don’t already agree with him. Indeed, his victory speech 0n Saturday was notable in that it contained almost nothing aimed at appealing to the classic, middle England floating voter. | He has shown little interest in what a Labour leader might have to say to win over voters who don’t already agree with him. Indeed, his victory speech 0n Saturday was notable in that it contained almost nothing aimed at appealing to the classic, middle England floating voter. |
| Related: Jeremy Corbyn victory: Guardian panellists' verdict | Related: Jeremy Corbyn victory: Guardian panellists' verdict |
| 5. Corbyn’s “expand the electorate” strategy may be flawed | 5. Corbyn’s “expand the electorate” strategy may be flawed |
| Asked how he could win an election with his policies, Corbyn has highlighted the large number of votes Labour could win by mobilising a leftish coalition of people who either did not register or turn out in 2015, or who voted for other progressive parties because they found Labour uninspiring. | Asked how he could win an election with his policies, Corbyn has highlighted the large number of votes Labour could win by mobilising a leftish coalition of people who either did not register or turn out in 2015, or who voted for other progressive parties because they found Labour uninspiring. |
| It is true that there are plenty of votes in this pool, but a Fabian analysis looked at this strategy in some detail and concluded that the prospects of it providing a route to electoral victory were bleak. | It is true that there are plenty of votes in this pool, but a Fabian analysis looked at this strategy in some detail and concluded that the prospects of it providing a route to electoral victory were bleak. |
| 6. Party image matters too, and it remains to be seen whether Labour will enjoy a “Corbyn bounce” | 6. Party image matters too, and it remains to be seen whether Labour will enjoy a “Corbyn bounce” |
| The Tories under Michael Howard and Labour under Ed Miliband were in the situation of having individual policies that were popular, but finding it hard to capitalise on those because the party’s image overall was negative. | |
| Will having Corbyn as leader make people feel more positive about Labour generally? It is far too soon to know, but as yet there is no evidence that it will. There were at least two state-of-the-party polls conducted after Corbyn became the frontrunner in the leadership race, and they both show it languishing well behind the Tories – on 31 points and 28 points respectively. | |
| 7. On a personal level, voters may warm to Corbyn | 7. On a personal level, voters may warm to Corbyn |
| The wider public beyond the nearly 500,000 people who voted in the leadership election have probably not yet formed a settled view on Corbyn. There are some aspects of his character, however, that people are likely to find very appealing. He is the antithesis of a career politician - in fact, it would be hard to find a politician less careerist – he doesn’t speak in politico-cliche about hard-working families and he is self-effacing, modest and frugal. | |
| Related: What does Jeremy Corbyn think? | Related: What does Jeremy Corbyn think? |
| 8. Leaders have to be good at leading, and Corbyn’s leadership skills are almost entirely untested | 8. Leaders have to be good at leading, and Corbyn’s leadership skills are almost entirely untested |
| He could turn out to be hopeless, or he could turn out to be surprisingly good. His executive experience may be limited to chairing Haringey council’s public works committee in the 1970s, but that is more than Tony Blair had when he became Labour leader, and there are different models of effective leadership. | He could turn out to be hopeless, or he could turn out to be surprisingly good. His executive experience may be limited to chairing Haringey council’s public works committee in the 1970s, but that is more than Tony Blair had when he became Labour leader, and there are different models of effective leadership. |
| Corbyn has said he wants to run a consensual administration - more Attlee than Churchill - and perhaps he will do this effectively. Many of his colleagues, however, think he will prove temperamentally unsuited to leadership for reasons Andy McSmith set out in the Independent. | Corbyn has said he wants to run a consensual administration - more Attlee than Churchill - and perhaps he will do this effectively. Many of his colleagues, however, think he will prove temperamentally unsuited to leadership for reasons Andy McSmith set out in the Independent. |
| 9. It is hard to envisage Corbyn as PM | 9. It is hard to envisage Corbyn as PM |
| Ultimately elections are about choosing a prime minister, and even many Corbyn admirers find it hard to see him walking through the door of 10 Downing Street. That may explain why the notion that he will only be a caretaker leader is so widespread. In his excellent account of the Corbyn campaign, my colleague Ewen MacAskill says that if Corbyn was ever minded to think this way, he has changed during the campaign, and is now “in for the long haul”. | Ultimately elections are about choosing a prime minister, and even many Corbyn admirers find it hard to see him walking through the door of 10 Downing Street. That may explain why the notion that he will only be a caretaker leader is so widespread. In his excellent account of the Corbyn campaign, my colleague Ewen MacAskill says that if Corbyn was ever minded to think this way, he has changed during the campaign, and is now “in for the long haul”. |
| 10. Everything could change, particularly if a crisis erupts, making all conventional assumptions redundant | 10. Everything could change, particularly if a crisis erupts, making all conventional assumptions redundant |
| The most obvious example would be some sort of economic catastrophe, which could lead to Corbyn-led Labour defying the pundits and taking power in the manner of Syriza in Greece. It does not seem probable, but it is by no means unthinkable. | The most obvious example would be some sort of economic catastrophe, which could lead to Corbyn-led Labour defying the pundits and taking power in the manner of Syriza in Greece. It does not seem probable, but it is by no means unthinkable. |
| So, overall, is Corbyn really unelectable? Quite possibly, but no one can plausibly say yes or no with certainty, and ultimately only the electorate can provide the answer. | So, overall, is Corbyn really unelectable? Quite possibly, but no one can plausibly say yes or no with certainty, and ultimately only the electorate can provide the answer. |
| To be fair, it is also worth pointing out that there are strong grounds for thinking that Corbyn’s three Labour leadership rivals would also have had considerable difficulties winning the next general election. | To be fair, it is also worth pointing out that there are strong grounds for thinking that Corbyn’s three Labour leadership rivals would also have had considerable difficulties winning the next general election. |
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