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Scotland a year on from the referendum Scotland a year on from the referendum
(about 11 hours later)
As the first anniversary of the Scottish independence referendum approaches, the BBC's Stuart Nicolson looks at what has happened since - and what might happen next.As the first anniversary of the Scottish independence referendum approaches, the BBC's Stuart Nicolson looks at what has happened since - and what might happen next.
What happened after the referendum?What happened after the referendum?
As soon as it became apparent that Scotland had voted against independence by 55% to 45% in the referendum on 18 September 2014, UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced he would be setting up a cross-party commission headed by Lord Smith of Kelvin to examine what further powers could be devolved to the Scottish Parliament.As soon as it became apparent that Scotland had voted against independence by 55% to 45% in the referendum on 18 September 2014, UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced he would be setting up a cross-party commission headed by Lord Smith of Kelvin to examine what further powers could be devolved to the Scottish Parliament.
Mr Cameron said this would fulfil "the Vow" - a pledge to give Scotland more powers which he had made along with Labour leader Ed Miliband and Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg just two days before the referendum.Mr Cameron said this would fulfil "the Vow" - a pledge to give Scotland more powers which he had made along with Labour leader Ed Miliband and Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg just two days before the referendum.
The commission met for the first time on 22 October, and published a series of recommendations on 27 November. Mr Cameron, along with the leaders of the other two main UK parties, immediately pledged to implement the proposals after May's general election.The commission met for the first time on 22 October, and published a series of recommendations on 27 November. Mr Cameron, along with the leaders of the other two main UK parties, immediately pledged to implement the proposals after May's general election.
The election saw Mr Cameron's Conservatives win an overall majority in the House of Commons - but the pro-independence SNP, which saw its membership surge to about 110,000 after the referendum, won 56 of the 59 seats in Scotland, leaving Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats with just one each.The election saw Mr Cameron's Conservatives win an overall majority in the House of Commons - but the pro-independence SNP, which saw its membership surge to about 110,000 after the referendum, won 56 of the 59 seats in Scotland, leaving Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats with just one each.
In the first Queen's Speech of the new parliament, the Conservative government introduced a Scotland Bill, which it said would turn the Smith Agreement into legislation. The bill is currently working its way through the usual parliamentary process before becoming law.In the first Queen's Speech of the new parliament, the Conservative government introduced a Scotland Bill, which it said would turn the Smith Agreement into legislation. The bill is currently working its way through the usual parliamentary process before becoming law.
So what powers are heading to the Scottish Parliament?So what powers are heading to the Scottish Parliament?
Assuming the Scotland Bill receives parliamentary approval, it will give the Scottish Parliament new powers which will include:Assuming the Scotland Bill receives parliamentary approval, it will give the Scottish Parliament new powers which will include:
The Scottish Parliament has already been given the power to extend voting to 16 and 17-year-olds in time for the 2016 Scottish Parliamentary elections.The Scottish Parliament has already been given the power to extend voting to 16 and 17-year-olds in time for the 2016 Scottish Parliamentary elections.
These are in addition to the more limited powers set out in the Scotland Act 2012, which included giving Holyrood the ability to raise or lower income tax by 10p in the pound. This will come into force in April of next year - ahead of the more substantial powers over income tax included in the Scotland Bill, which are expected to be introduced in 2018.These are in addition to the more limited powers set out in the Scotland Act 2012, which included giving Holyrood the ability to raise or lower income tax by 10p in the pound. This will come into force in April of next year - ahead of the more substantial powers over income tax included in the Scotland Bill, which are expected to be introduced in 2018.
Is everyone happy with the proposals?Is everyone happy with the proposals?
In a word, no. The SNP's representatives on the Smith Commission - John Swinney and Linda Fabiani - signed the final agreement, but immediately made it clear they did not think it went nearly far enough.In a word, no. The SNP's representatives on the Smith Commission - John Swinney and Linda Fabiani - signed the final agreement, but immediately made it clear they did not think it went nearly far enough.
The party has argued for Scotland to be given much greater powers, including full control over National Insurance, the minimum wage, Corporation Tax, welfare and employment and trade union law in addition to those outlined in the Smith document.The party has argued for Scotland to be given much greater powers, including full control over National Insurance, the minimum wage, Corporation Tax, welfare and employment and trade union law in addition to those outlined in the Smith document.
The SNP also sought to amend the Scotland Bill to include a provision which would have allowed the Scottish Parliament to start moving towards Full Fiscal Autonomy at a time of its choosing. This would essentially have given MSPs control over everything except defence and foreign affairs, but the proposal was voted down by MPs from other parties.The SNP also sought to amend the Scotland Bill to include a provision which would have allowed the Scottish Parliament to start moving towards Full Fiscal Autonomy at a time of its choosing. This would essentially have given MSPs control over everything except defence and foreign affairs, but the proposal was voted down by MPs from other parties.
However, it is not just independence supporters who are unhappy, with several prominent pro-Union politicians arguing that the Smith Commission process was rushed through without the wider implications being fully considered.However, it is not just independence supporters who are unhappy, with several prominent pro-Union politicians arguing that the Smith Commission process was rushed through without the wider implications being fully considered.
Ahead of the general election, former prime minister Gordon Brown argued that the Smith proposals were not strong enough, and called for a "fairer" and "more radical" solution that would help "advance social justice" in Scotland.Ahead of the general election, former prime minister Gordon Brown argued that the Smith proposals were not strong enough, and called for a "fairer" and "more radical" solution that would help "advance social justice" in Scotland.
Scottish Labour said it wanted Holyrood to also have the power to top up and vary the UK's state pension, unemployment and child benefit, as well as the full devolution of housing benefit as part of a package Mr Brown described as the "Vow Plus".Scottish Labour said it wanted Holyrood to also have the power to top up and vary the UK's state pension, unemployment and child benefit, as well as the full devolution of housing benefit as part of a package Mr Brown described as the "Vow Plus".
Lord McConnell, a Labour peer and former Scottish first minister, described the Smith Commission as a "shambles" and said the UK instead needed a constitutional convention to tackle the "disillusionment with the way the country is governed", adding that feelings ran "deeper than just what happened in Scotland".Lord McConnell, a Labour peer and former Scottish first minister, described the Smith Commission as a "shambles" and said the UK instead needed a constitutional convention to tackle the "disillusionment with the way the country is governed", adding that feelings ran "deeper than just what happened in Scotland".
And Sir Malcolm Rifkind, a former Conservative secretary of state for Scotland, has also called for a Royal Commission to consider giving more powers to all parts of the UK.And Sir Malcolm Rifkind, a former Conservative secretary of state for Scotland, has also called for a Royal Commission to consider giving more powers to all parts of the UK.
But both Mr Cameron and Scottish Secretary David Mundell have insisted the Smith proposals were the "right package" for the country.But both Mr Cameron and Scottish Secretary David Mundell have insisted the Smith proposals were the "right package" for the country.
Has the Scottish government said how it would use the new powers?Has the Scottish government said how it would use the new powers?
The first real indication of how the new devolved powers might be used came at the start of this month, when the Scottish government published its annual Programme for Government. It said that, assuming the SNP was still in power after next May's Holyrood election, it would begin to reduce air passenger duty in 2018 with the aim of cutting it by 50% by the end of the next parliament.The first real indication of how the new devolved powers might be used came at the start of this month, when the Scottish government published its annual Programme for Government. It said that, assuming the SNP was still in power after next May's Holyrood election, it would begin to reduce air passenger duty in 2018 with the aim of cutting it by 50% by the end of the next parliament.
The document also said the Scottish government would:The document also said the Scottish government would:
Ms Sturgeon has previously indicated that she supports the introduction of a 50% top rate of income tax as part of a "more progressive" income tax regime for Scotland.Ms Sturgeon has previously indicated that she supports the introduction of a 50% top rate of income tax as part of a "more progressive" income tax regime for Scotland.
But she appears to have ruled out this happening next year, when Holyrood gets limited income tax varying powers under the Scotland Act 2012, as any increase in the top rate would also need to be applied across all of the other bands.But she appears to have ruled out this happening next year, when Holyrood gets limited income tax varying powers under the Scotland Act 2012, as any increase in the top rate would also need to be applied across all of the other bands.
That means the earliest the Scottish government is likely to make any major changes to income tax rates would be 2018, when the wider powers contained in the Scotland Bill are expected to come into force.That means the earliest the Scottish government is likely to make any major changes to income tax rates would be 2018, when the wider powers contained in the Scotland Bill are expected to come into force.
Is another independence referendum inevitable?Is another independence referendum inevitable?
Is another independence referendum inevitable?
The Scottish government's White Paper on independence, which was published ahead of last year's referendum, stated that it would be a "once in a generation opportunity to follow a different path" - a line that was repeated by both Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon during the campaign.The Scottish government's White Paper on independence, which was published ahead of last year's referendum, stated that it would be a "once in a generation opportunity to follow a different path" - a line that was repeated by both Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon during the campaign.
But both Ms Sturgeon and Mr Salmond have since said that they believe there will be another referendum, and that Scotland will become independent in their lifetime.But both Ms Sturgeon and Mr Salmond have since said that they believe there will be another referendum, and that Scotland will become independent in their lifetime.
Ms Sturgeon was widely perceived to be taking a more cautious approach to the issue than her predecessor, and has repeatedly insisted it will be for the "people of Scotland", rather than politicians, to decide if and when there is a second vote.Ms Sturgeon was widely perceived to be taking a more cautious approach to the issue than her predecessor, and has repeatedly insisted it will be for the "people of Scotland", rather than politicians, to decide if and when there is a second vote.
The SNP leadership, which is still scarred by the memories of 19 September and knows it cannot afford to lose for a second time, is unlikely to want another referendum until is believes it is all but certain to win, and win fairly convincingly.The SNP leadership, which is still scarred by the memories of 19 September and knows it cannot afford to lose for a second time, is unlikely to want another referendum until is believes it is all but certain to win, and win fairly convincingly.
Polls published by Ipsos Mori and TNS earlier this month put support for independence at 55% and 53% respectively once "don't knows" were excluded.Polls published by Ipsos Mori and TNS earlier this month put support for independence at 55% and 53% respectively once "don't knows" were excluded.
The Ipsos Mori poll also suggested that SNP supporters overwhelmingly support another referendum being held in the next five years, while supporters of the other main parties are overwhelmingly opposed.The Ipsos Mori poll also suggested that SNP supporters overwhelmingly support another referendum being held in the next five years, while supporters of the other main parties are overwhelmingly opposed.
New polls by YouGov and Panelbase published over the weekend put support for independence at 48% and 47% respectively - though the latter also found 67% thought it would happen within the next 30 years.New polls by YouGov and Panelbase published over the weekend put support for independence at 48% and 47% respectively - though the latter also found 67% thought it would happen within the next 30 years.
Ms Sturgeon believes a dramatic shift in the UK's political landscape, such as a vote for the UK to leave the EU, could be the catalyst she needs to hold and win a second referendum.Ms Sturgeon believes a dramatic shift in the UK's political landscape, such as a vote for the UK to leave the EU, could be the catalyst she needs to hold and win a second referendum.
But she was facing the possibility of coming under pressure from within her own party, particularly from some of its tens of thousands of new members, for a commitment to another referendum to be included in the SNP manifesto ahead of next May's Scottish Parliament election.But she was facing the possibility of coming under pressure from within her own party, particularly from some of its tens of thousands of new members, for a commitment to another referendum to be included in the SNP manifesto ahead of next May's Scottish Parliament election.
In a bit to pre-empt that, she has announced that the manifesto will "set out what we consider are the circumstances and the timescale on which a second referendum might be appropriate".In a bit to pre-empt that, she has announced that the manifesto will "set out what we consider are the circumstances and the timescale on which a second referendum might be appropriate".
She said it would then be for "people in Scotland, whether it is in this election or in future elections, to decide whether they want to vote for our manifesto and then if there is in the future another independence referendum."She said it would then be for "people in Scotland, whether it is in this election or in future elections, to decide whether they want to vote for our manifesto and then if there is in the future another independence referendum."
What's happening in England, Wales and Northern Ireland?What's happening in England, Wales and Northern Ireland?
After the independence referendum, Mr Cameron made a speech outside No 10 Downing Street in which he said the UK needed, not only a new deal for Scotland, but for the "millions of voices in England" to be heard. So, what has happened since September last year?After the independence referendum, Mr Cameron made a speech outside No 10 Downing Street in which he said the UK needed, not only a new deal for Scotland, but for the "millions of voices in England" to be heard. So, what has happened since September last year?