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Russian Flights Over Iraq and Iran Escalate Tension With U.S. Russian Moves in Syria Widen Role in Mideast
(about 11 hours later)
WASHINGTON — Russia is using an air corridor over Iraq and Iran to fly military equipment and personnel to a new air hub in Syria, openly defying American efforts to block the shipments and significantly increasing tensions with Washington. WASHINGTON — Russia has sent some of its most modern battle tanks to a new air base in Syria in what American officials said on Monday was part of an escalating buildup that could give Moscow its most significant military foothold in the Middle East in decades.
American officials disclosed Sunday that at least seven giant Russian Condor transport planes had taken off from a base in southern Russia during the past week to ferry equipment to Syria, all passing through Iranian and Iraqi airspace. Pentagon officials said that the Russian weapons and equipment that had arrived suggested that the Kremlin’s plan is to turn the airfield south of Latakia in western Syria into a major hub that could be used to bring in military supplies for the government of President Bashar al-Assad. It might also serve as a staging area for airstrikes in support of Syrian government forces.
Their destination was an airfield south of Latakia, Syria, which could become the most significant new Russian military foothold in the Middle East in decades, American officials said. “We have seen movement of people and things that would suggest the air base south of Latakia could be used as a forward air operating base,” Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman, said on Monday.
The Obama administration initially hoped it had hampered the Russian effort to move military equipment and personnel into Syria when Bulgaria, a NATO member, announced it would close its airspace to the flights. But Russia quickly began channeling its flights over Iraq and Iran, which Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said on Sunday would continue despite American objections. American military specialists analyzing satellite photographs and other information said Russia had about half a dozen T-90 tanks, 15 howitzers, 35 armored personnel carriers, 200 marines and housing for as many as 1,500 personnel at the airfield near the Assad family’s ancestral home. And more is on the way as Russia appears to be attempting to increase its influence in Syria amid the civil strife there, the officials said.
“There were military supplies, they are ongoing, and they will continue,” Mr. Lavrov was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies. “They are inevitably accompanied by Russian specialists, who help to adjust the equipment, to train Syrian personnel how to use this weaponry.” “There were military supplies, they are ongoing, and they will continue,” Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies on Sunday. “They are inevitably accompanied by Russian specialists, who help to adjust the equipment, to train Syrian personnel how to use this weaponry.”
Moscow’s military buildup in Syria, where the Kremlin has been supporting President Bashar al-Assad in a four-and-a-half-year civil war, adds a new friction point in its relations with the United States. The actions also lay bare another major policy challenge for the United States: how to encourage Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of Iraq, who came to power with the blessing of the United States but is still trying to establish his authority, to block the Russian flights. The Russians have not sent fighter jets to Syria, and the Kremlin has not said whether they will. But the military buildup by Russia, which has been supporting Mr. Assad throughout the four-and-a-half-year Syrian civil war, adds a new friction point in its relations with the United States.
American diplomats raised the issue with the Iraqi government on Sept. 5, hoping that the Iraqis would follow Bulgaria’s example and declare their airspace off limits to the Russian transport planes. “I don’t believe Western governments are prepared to do very much to slow down or block the risky course the Russians are going on,” said Andrew S. Weiss, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a former Russia expert for the National Security Council, the State Department and the Pentagon.
The Iraqis responded that they would look into the matter, said an American official who declined to be identified because he was talking about diplomatic communications. But more than a week later, the Iraqis had yet to take action. Indeed, efforts by the United States to stop the flow of supplies have fallen short. At least 15 giant Russian Condor transport planes have in the past week used an air corridor over Iraq and Iran to ferry military equipment and personnel to the base, said American military officials who agreed to speak about confidential intelligence assessments on the condition of anonymity.
A spokesman for the Iraqi prime minister declined to comment on Sunday, asserting that he had no information about the Russian flights or the United States’ concerns about them. Bulgaria closed its airspace to the Russian flights last week at the request of the United States. But Iraq did not, even though American diplomats raised concerns about the Russian flights with the Iraqi government on Sept. 5.
Two years ago, American officials confronted Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, Mr. Abadi’s predecessor, when Iraq allowed Iran to fly arms, ammunition and other equipment to Syria through its airspace. In March 2013, Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters in Baghdad that he had a “spirited” discussion with Mr. Maliki on the issue but with no breakthrough. Although the Obama administration’s warnings to the Russians have been made public, American officials have refused to openly discuss their appeals to the Iraqis. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of Iraq assumed his post with the support of the United States but is still trying to establish his authority at home, and American officials are wary of undercutting him.
Compounding Mr. Abadi’s challenge are his efforts to maintain good relations with the United States, Iran and Russia. While about 3,500 American advisers have been sent to help the Iraqis combat the Islamic State, Iraq also has received military support for that fight from Iran, which like Russia is backing Mr. Assad. Iraq also is buying weapons from Moscow, which Mr. Abadi visited in May. Compounding the difficulties for Mr. Abadi is his effort to maintain good relations with the United States, Iran and Russia all at the same time. While about 3,500 American advisers have been sent to help the Iraqis combat the Islamic State, Iraq also has received military support for that fight from Iran, which like Russia is backing Mr. Assad. Iraq also is buying weapons from Moscow, which Mr. Abadi visited in May.
With few aircraft, Iraq’s ability to defend its airspace is extremely limited. But it could tell the Russians that they do not have the clearance to fly through Iraqi airspace and ask for American help in detecting and discouraging Russian flights. With few aircraft, Iraq’s ability to defend its airspace is extremely limited. But it could tell the Russians that they do not have the clearance to fly through its airspace and ask for American help in detecting and discouraging Russian flights.
“Since Maliki relinquished the premiership, power and authority in Iraq have become increasingly diffused with various players now exercising unilateral power over the use of force,” Ramzy Mardini, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, a research group in Washington, said in a telephone interview from Erbil, Iraq.
“Neutrality is the best Washington can hope for in Baghdad,” Mr. Mardini added. “Iraq is not a dictatorial state like many of the U.S. allies in the Middle East. Iraq is still a fragile state whose leaders are exposed to politics. In the discourse of Iraqi politics, forcing Abadi to side with the U.S. against Assad is like realigning him with the Sunni axis against the Shia one.”
A Russian Embassy official in Tehran told Russian news agencies on Wednesday that Iran had approved Russia’s use of Iranian airspace to fly to Syria, but the official insisted the cargo was merely humanitarian aid.
The Obama administration’s warnings to the Russians were decidedly stark.
On the same day that the administration approached Iraq and other nations about the Russian flights, Mr. Kerry called Mr. Lavrov and warned the Kremlin not to vastly expand its military support for the Syrian government. Mr. Kerry said it would fuel the conflict and might even lead to an inadvertent confrontation with the American-led coalition that is carrying out airstrikes against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, in Syria, the State Department noted in a statement about the call.
“It appears now that Assad is worried enough that he’s inviting Russian advisers in and Russian equipment in,” President Obama said in a meeting with troops at Fort Meade, Md., last week. “And that won’t change our core strategy, which is to continue to put pressure on ISIL in Iraq and Syria, but we are going to be engaging Russia to let them know that you can’t continue to double-down on a strategy that’s doomed to failure.”
But those warnings do not appear to have swayed President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who appears determined to create new facts on the ground in Syria.
According to American intelligence, about 200 Russian marines and six Russian howitzers now guard the air base south of Latakia. More prefabricated buildings have been delivered, increasing the housing capacity to 1,500 people. Dozens of Russian vehicles have been observed at the base, including about a dozen advanced infantry fighting vehicles.
American intelligence has not detected Russian fighter jets. But some American officials said Russian SU-25 and MiG-31 attack planes might arrive in the next phase of the buildup. They could be sent in crates and assembled in Syria or be flown to the base, officials said.
The Russian move could serve multiple purposes, according to analysts. In addition to strengthening Mr. Assad and buttressing the Kremlin’s plan to create a new anti-ISIL coalition that includes Iran and the Syrian government, it positions Russia to have major influence in Syria’s future and draws attention away from Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.
“The Russians have done a masterful job of changing the subject on the eve of Vladimir Putin’s arrival in New York for the 70th commemoration of the U.N. General Assembly,” said Andrew S. Weiss, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a former Russia expert for the National Security Council, the State Department and the Pentagon.
“Instead of accepting a brushoff from the White House about Putin’s desire for a meeting with Obama, the Russians are trying to argue that you have to talk to us about Syria,” Mr. Weiss added. “I don’t believe Western governments are prepared to do very much to slow down or block the risky course the Russians are going on.”
Although the administration’s warnings to the Russians have been made public, American officials have refused to publicly discuss their appeals to the Iraqis and other nations to stop the Russian flights’ path to Syria.
“Regardless of what air corridor is being used, we’ve been clear about our concerns about continued material support to the Assad regime,” said John Kirby, the State Department spokesman. “We don’t talk about our diplomatic conversations, but we’ve asked our friends and partners in the region to ask tough questions of the Russians.”“Regardless of what air corridor is being used, we’ve been clear about our concerns about continued material support to the Assad regime,” said John Kirby, the State Department spokesman. “We don’t talk about our diplomatic conversations, but we’ve asked our friends and partners in the region to ask tough questions of the Russians.”
Russia has long had a naval base at the Syrian port city of Tartus. But if the Kremlin continues its military buildup near Latakia and bases Russian warplanes there, it could greatly enhance its ability to project power in Syria and neighboring states. A spokesman for Mr. Abadi in Baghdad declined to comment.
“This is the most important Russian power projection in the region in decades,” said Stephen J. Blank, an expert on the Russian military at the American Foreign Policy Council, “and it will enhance Russia’s influence throughout the Levant.” The Russian military buildup in Syria could serve the Kremlin’s interests in several ways. It could help strengthen Mr. Assad, whom Russia has long backed but whose military fortunes have declined in recent weeks.
“It looks like the continuing process of building up an expeditionary or significant combat force in Syria,” said Jeffrey White, a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer who now studies Syria at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “It could give the regime a decisive edge on the battlefield.”
The buildup also dramatizes Russia’s call to fight the Islamic State with a new coalition that would include Iran and the Syrian government. It could also put Russia in a better position to influence the formation of a new government if Mr. Assad eventually left power.
Russia also appears to be cementing its strategic interests in Syria and greatly enhancing its ability to project power in Syria and neighboring states — with a new airfield to complement the naval base it has long had in the coastal city of Tartus — regardless of how events in the country unfold.
“This is the most important Russian power projection in the region in decades,” said Stephen J. Blank, an expert on the Russian military at the American Foreign Policy Council. He compared it with Russian deployments to Egypt in the 1970s, adding, “it will enhance Russia’s influence throughout the Levant.”
The next phase of the Russian plan may become clearer when President Vladimir V. Putin comes to the United Nations later this month and outlines his proposals for coping with Syria.
“The Russians have done a masterful job of changing the subject on the eve of Vladimir Putin’s arrival in New York for the 70th commemoration of the U.N. General Assembly,” said Mr. Weiss.
“Instead of accepting a brushoff from the White House about Putin’s desire for a meeting with Obama, the Russians are trying to argue that you have to talk to us about Syria,” Mr. Weiss added. “It was the Iranians who ponied up before by deploying the Quds Force by sending in proxies like Hezbollah. It is Moscow’s turn now to play that role, which is largely intended to prop up the regime.”
The Russian efforts appear to be facilitated by Iran, which also backs the Assad government and gave permission to the Russians to fly over its territory.
In late July, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the head of the Quds force who has been directing Iran’s military support for Mr. Assad, is believed to have gone to Moscow despite a United Nations travel ban. Russian officials have denied that the visit occurred, but two American officials who asked not to be identified because they were discussing classified intelligence said they were convinced General Suleimani made the trip.
Secretary of State John Kerry has twice called Mr. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, to warn that the military buildup could add to the chaos inside Syria and might even lead to an inadvertent confrontation with United States-led forces that are carrying out airstrikes against the Islamic State.
“What we would like to see is movement toward a political transition in here,” Mr. Kirby said Monday. “We still believe there’s an opportunity to pursue that kind of transition in concert with Russian authorities.”
“But it can’t start with open and continued aiding and abetting of the Assad regime,” he added.
Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican who is chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, complained on Monday that the Obama administration should have done more to discourage the Russian flights.
“Capitalizing on American inaction, Russia is now engaged in a dangerous military buildup in Syria, which has been supported by supply flights, through Iranian and Iraqi airspace, despite expressions of ‘concern’ from Secretary Kerry and other administration officials,” he said in a statement.
But Mr. McCain did not specify what action he thought the United States should take at this point.