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Stormont Northern Ireland crisis talks explained Stormont Northern Ireland crisis talks explained
(about 4 hours later)
Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary, is holding talks aimed at saving the region’s crisis-hit power sharing government from collapse at Stormont House in Belfast on Monday. Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary, is holding talks aimed at saving the region’s crisis-hit power-sharing government from collapse at Stormont House in Belfast on Monday.
The negotiation process is expected to last four to six weeks and Monday’s session will involve bilateral meetings between Villiers and representatives of the five parties that are members of Northern Ireland’s power-sharing executive – the Democratic Unionists (DUP), Ulster Unionists (UUP), the Alliance party, Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour party (SDLP).The negotiation process is expected to last four to six weeks and Monday’s session will involve bilateral meetings between Villiers and representatives of the five parties that are members of Northern Ireland’s power-sharing executive – the Democratic Unionists (DUP), Ulster Unionists (UUP), the Alliance party, Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour party (SDLP).
Irish government officials will also hold one-to-one meetings with the parties. Here are the key issues they are likely to be discussing.Irish government officials will also hold one-to-one meetings with the parties. Here are the key issues they are likely to be discussing.
Does the IRA still exist and is it still in the business of murder?Does the IRA still exist and is it still in the business of murder?
Unionists want this issue to be item No 1 on the agenda. They believe that ex-IRA prisoner Kevin McGuigan was murdered by his former comrades last month. The chief constable of Northern Ireland’s follow-up assessment that the IRA still exists in some form has exacerbated unionist fears about ongoing republican paramilitary activity.Unionists want this issue to be item No 1 on the agenda. They believe that ex-IRA prisoner Kevin McGuigan was murdered by his former comrades last month. The chief constable of Northern Ireland’s follow-up assessment that the IRA still exists in some form has exacerbated unionist fears about ongoing republican paramilitary activity.
On the other hand, Sinn Féin insists the IRA has “left the stage”, with one party stalwart once named in parliament as the IRA’s director of intelligence, Bobby Storey, colourfully describing the paramilitary group as a butterfly that has flown away. Unionist politicians, including the UUP leader, Mike Nesbitt, have insisted that unless Sinn Féin accepts that the IRA does exist in some shape or form then the talks are doomed.On the other hand, Sinn Féin insists the IRA has “left the stage”, with one party stalwart once named in parliament as the IRA’s director of intelligence, Bobby Storey, colourfully describing the paramilitary group as a butterfly that has flown away. Unionist politicians, including the UUP leader, Mike Nesbitt, have insisted that unless Sinn Féin accepts that the IRA does exist in some shape or form then the talks are doomed.
Will a new ceasefire monitoring body be revived?Will a new ceasefire monitoring body be revived?
One idea that has been floated ever since this current crisis flared up is the revival of the Independent Monitoring Commission, a body comprising international security experts who would investigate allegations that paramilitary ceasefires had been broken.One idea that has been floated ever since this current crisis flared up is the revival of the Independent Monitoring Commission, a body comprising international security experts who would investigate allegations that paramilitary ceasefires had been broken.
This concept has won support not only from unionists but also in Dublin with the Irish government. In effect, an IMC Mark II could act, in some eyes, as a deterrent against further alleged ceasefire breaches including murders given the further political consequences they could produce. This concept has won support not only from unionists but also in Dublin with the Irish government. In effect, an IMC Mark II could act, in some eyes, as a deterrent against further alleged ceasefire breaches, including murders, given the further political consequences they could have.
A cross-border taskforce aimed at tackling the lawless roads of South Armagh? Is a cross-border taskforce aimed at tackling the lawless roads of South Armagh a possibility?
A new condition appears to be entering the talks, at least from the Ulster Unionist party. They have called for a cross-border police/security taskforce to deal with what the UUP calls a “crime empire” on the South Armagh/North Louth frontier. The UUP wants the multimillion pound rackets in diesel-smuggling and other activities to be targeted by the security forces as a confidence-building measure for the unionist community. A new condition appears to be entering the talks, at least from the Ulster Unionist party. They have called for a cross-border police/security taskforce to deal with what the UUP calls a “crime empire” on the South Armagh/North Louth frontier. The UUP wants the multimillion-pound rackets in diesel-smuggling and other activities to be targeted by the security forces as a confidence-building measure for the unionist community.
This additional demand will be resisted by Sinn Féin given that South Armagh is a republican redoubt and loyal to the mainstream pro-peace process republican movement.This additional demand will be resisted by Sinn Féin given that South Armagh is a republican redoubt and loyal to the mainstream pro-peace process republican movement.
Can the five parties agree to embrace welfare reforms and finally set a budget after nine months of stasis?Can the five parties agree to embrace welfare reforms and finally set a budget after nine months of stasis?
The other major dysfunction in Northern Ireland’s power-sharing government has been the inability of the parties to accept demands from the UK Treasury for cuts and reforms to the local welfare system.The other major dysfunction in Northern Ireland’s power-sharing government has been the inability of the parties to accept demands from the UK Treasury for cuts and reforms to the local welfare system.
Sinn Féin and the SDLP oppose Tory-imposed austerity cuts. Unionists and the cross-community Alliance party say the nationalists are being unrealistic about demanding other concessions such as a lower corporation tax regime for the region while refusing to countenance any welfare reforms. As a result of the welfare impasse, the Northern Ireland executive hasn’t been able to set a budget so far this year. Sinn Féin and the SDLP oppose Tory-imposed austerity cuts. Unionists and the cross-community Alliance party say the nationalists are being unrealistic about demanding other concessions, such as a lower corporation tax regime for the region, while refusing to countenance any welfare reforms. As a result of the welfare impasse, the Northern Ireland executive hasn’t been able to set a budget so far this year.
What if talks fail to produce a consensus among the parties?What if talks fail to produce a consensus among the parties?
Elections to a new Northern Ireland assembly will be inevitable towards the end of the autumn if this four- to six-week period of negotiations doesn’t lead to a breakthrough. This in turn will mean more weeks, possibly even months of further talks before there is a restoration of devolution and a new power-sharing executive in Belfast. Meanwhile, power would flow back to London and allow the national government to go ahead with the implementation of welfare reform, including the culling of thousands of civil service jobs. Elections to a new Northern Ireland assembly will be inevitable towards the end of the autumn if this four- to six-week period of negotiations doesn’t lead to a breakthrough. This in turn will mean more weeks, possibly even months, of further talks before there is a restoration of devolution and a new power-sharing executive in Belfast. Meanwhile, power would flow back to London and allow the national government to go ahead with the implementation of welfare reform, including the culling of thousands of civil service jobs.