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North Korea's nuclear programme: How advanced is it? North Korea's nuclear programme: How advanced is it?
(21 days later)
North Korea's nuclear programme remains a source of deep concern for the international community. The BBC looks at North Korea's nuclear ambitions and multinational efforts to curtail them despite four nuclear tests. North Korea's nuclear programme remains a source of deep concern for the international community. Despite multiple efforts to curtail it, Pyongyang says it has conducted four nuclear tests and there are indications it is developing long-range missile technology.
Has North Korea got the bomb?Has North Korea got the bomb?
Technically yes, but not yet the means to deliver it via a missile. Technically yes, but not the means to deliver it via a missile - yet.
In 2006, 2009, 2013 and 2016, North Korea announced that it had conducted successful nuclear tests - they came after the North was sanctioned by the UN for launching rockets. North Korea said it conducted four successful nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, 2013 and 2016.
Analysts believe the first two tests used plutonium as the fissile material. The North is believed to possess enough weapons-grade plutonium for at least six bombs. Analysts believe the first two tests used plutonium, but whether the North used plutonium or uranium as the starting material for the 2013 test is unclear.
Whether it used plutonium or uranium as the starting material for the 2013 test is unclear. While these three were atomic bomb tests, North Korea said its test in January 2016 was of a more powerful hydrogen bomb. Again, the starting material is unclear and experts cast doubt given the size of the explosion registered.
While these were atomic bomb tests, North Korea said its test in January 2016 was of a hydrogen bomb. Again, the starting material is unclear.
H-bombs use fusion - the merging of atoms - to unleash massive amounts of energy, whereas atomic bombs use nuclear fission, or the splitting of atoms.H-bombs use fusion - the merging of atoms - to unleash massive amounts of energy, whereas atomic bombs use nuclear fission, or the splitting of atoms.
However, some experts cast doubt on the H-bomb claim, given the size of the explosion registered. Shortly after that test Pyongyang launched a satellite, a launch widely seen as a test of long-range missile technology.
The US said in February it had intelligence indicating that North Korea could soon have enough plutonium for nuclear weapons and was taking steps in making a long-range missile system.
What do we know about the North's nuclear programme?What do we know about the North's nuclear programme?
The Yongbyon site is thought to be its main nuclear facility. The North has pledged several times to halt operations there and even destroyed the cooling tower in 2008 as part of a disarmament-for-aid deal.The Yongbyon site is thought to be its main nuclear facility. The North has pledged several times to halt operations there and even destroyed the cooling tower in 2008 as part of a disarmament-for-aid deal.
But in March 2013, after a war of words with the US and with new UN sanctions over the North's third nuclear test, it vowed to restart all facilities at Yongbyon. However, the US never believed Pyongyang was fully disclosing all of its nuclear facilities - a suspicion bolstered when North Korea unveiled a uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon, purportedly for electricity generation, to US scientist Siegfried Hecker in 2010.
However, the US never believed Pyongyang was fully disclosing all of its nuclear facilities - a suspicion bolstered when North Korea unveiled a uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon (purportedly for electricity generation) to US scientist Siegfried Hecker in 2010. In March 2013, after a war of words with the US and with new UN sanctions over the North's third nuclear test, Pyongyang vowed to restart all facilities at Yongbyon.
Mr Hecker's 2010 visit and subsequent report remains the most recent and reliable account of the complex. In 2015 a US think tank said satellite pictures suggested the reactor at Yongbyon may have been restarted. Then in September, state media announced that "normal operation" had started at the production plant.
In April 2015 a US think tank said satellite pictures taken in early 2015 suggested the reactor at Yongbyon may have been restarted. Then in September, state media announced that "normal operation" had started at the production plant.
The January 2016 test was said to have been carried out at the Punggye-ri site.The January 2016 test was said to have been carried out at the Punggye-ri site.
Both the US and South Korea have also said that they believed the North had additional sites linked to a uranium-enrichment programme. Both the US and South Korea have also said that they believed the North had additional sites linked to a uranium-enrichment programme. The country has plentiful reserves of uranium ore.
A test based on a uranium device would spell new dangers for monitoring and proliferation because weapons-grade plutonium enrichment happens in large facilities that are easier to spot. What has the global community done about this?
Uranium enrichment uses many, possibly small, centrifuges that can be hidden away. While North Korea has depleted its stocks of "reactor-grade" plutonium needed to make the weapons-grade variety, the country has plentiful reserves of uranium ore. The US, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea have engaged the North in multiple rounds of negotiations known as six-party talks, but none of this has ultimately deterred Pyongyang.
What has the global community done about the programme? In 2005, North Korea agreed to a landmark deal to give up its nuclear ambitions in return for economic aid and political concessions. But implementing it proved difficult and talks stalled in 2009.
Multiple rounds of negotiations have taken place between the North, the US, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea aimed at persuading Pyongyang to give up its nuclear ambitions. But none of this has ultimately deterred North Korea. Then in 2012, North Korea suddenly announced it would suspend nuclear activities and place a moratorium on missile tests in exchange for US food aid,. But this came to nothing when Pyongyang tried to launch a rocket in April that year.
In September 2005, after more than two years of on-off talks, North Korea agreed a landmark deal to give up its nuclear ambitions in return for economic aid and political concessions.
Implementing the deal proved extremely difficult and the talks stalled in April 2009.
Contacts in July 2011 did not get far before long-time leader Kim Jong-il died and was succeeded by his son, Kim Jong-un.
Another step forward in early 2012, when North Korea suddenly announced it would suspend nuclear activities and place a moratorium on missile tests in exchange for US food aid, came to nothing when Pyongyang tried to launch a rocket in April that year.
The UN further tightened sanctions after the 2013 test.The UN further tightened sanctions after the 2013 test.
The 2016 test brought another round of universal international condemnation, including from China. The 2016 test brought another round of universal international condemnation, including from China, the North's main ally.
Did the 2013 test advance North Korea's nuclear capabilities? Did recent tests advance North Korea's nuclear capabilities?
North Korea made certain claims about its capabilities in the wake of its test. After its 2013 test and again in 2015, North Korea claimed it had "miniaturised" a device, or made a device small enough to fit a nuclear warhead onto a missile - which the US cast doubt on.
Firstly, it claimed it had "miniaturised" a device, that is, made a device small enough to fit a nuclear warhead onto a missile. Pyongyang also said the 2013 test had a much greater yield than the devices detonated in previous tests. It was indeed larger in force than previous ones, but monitors failed to detect radioactive isotopes - a key indicator - so uncertainty remains.
In April 2015, it repeated this claim, but US officials were quoted as casting doubt on this claim and experts say it is difficult to assess the progress North Korea has made on miniaturisation. Claims of an underground test of a hydrogen bomb in January 2016 were met with plenty of scepticism.
Pyongyang also said the 2013 test had a much greater yield than the plutonium devices it detonated in 2006 and 2009.
Some analysts have suggested that warnings of a "high-level" test could have been code for the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) rather than plutonium.
Although both represent roughly the same level of threat, a uranium bomb would signify a huge technological achievement because the process of distilling natural uranium ore to the stuff suitable for bombs is profoundly difficult.
The 2013 test was indeed larger in force than previous ones but monitors failed to detect radioactive isotopes. Finding certain isotopes would help experts determine whether a plutonium or uranium-based device was used.
But a well-contained test could yield no radioactive isotopes, experts say. So uncertainty remains.
2016 - an H-bomb test?
North Korea's claims it carried out an underground test of a hydrogen bomb in January 2016 were met with plenty of scepticism.
Initial estimates put the blast in the 10 to 15 kiloton range, whereas a full thermonuclear blast would be closer to 100 kilotons.Initial estimates put the blast in the 10 to 15 kiloton range, whereas a full thermonuclear blast would be closer to 100 kilotons.
Tests for regional radioactivity will again be carried out, but there is no certainty they will offer a definitive conclusion. North Korea again claimed this was a successful test of a miniaturised device, and again it has not been verified.
As in 2013, North Korea claimed this was a successful test of a miniaturised device. Again it has not been verified.