The Guardian view on Malcolm Turnbull’s coup: back with a vengeance
|
Version 0 of 1. British politics may occasionally seem like a bear pit, but it is a cuddly place when compared with the sometimes feral politics of Australia. There, the Liberal party has just toppled Tony Abbott as leader and prime minister, and replaced him with his longtime rival Malcolm Turnbull. Mr Turnbull thus becomes Australia’s fifth prime minister in five years, and the third of the five to have reached the office with a well-timed coup against a party colleague. The Liberals were elected two years ago in part because Labor had degenerated into rival camps, with Kevin Rudd ousting Julia Gillard, who had herself earlier overthrown Mr Rudd in midterm. The Liberals have never been squeamish about such things themselves, however, since Mr Abbott had himself put the knife into Mr Turnbull in opposition back in 2009. Now their roles have been reversed, literally with a vengeance. There is nothing uniquely Australian about the reasons for this spate of political topplings, however. Australian federal party leaders have actually enjoyed quite long periods in power in recent decades, with Bob Hawke, Paul Keating and John Howard racking up 24 successive years in power between 1983 and 2007. In the end, Mr Abbott went because he had proved a poor and dogmatic leader, because his party was divided and facing defeat, and because there was a rival, in the shape of Mr Turnbull, with the confidence and support to mount an effective coup. Mr Turnbull is a more voter-friendly, more liberal and – not to be underestimated – richer man than his defeated rival. But he has always been ambitious too, and he has spent much of the last two years biting his lip, biding his time, and rebuilding his support within the Liberal party while Mr Abbott’s was in decline. Mr Abbott’s hold on power has been weakened by poor economic performance, U-turns on health and education spending, which he had promised not to cut, and by a clunky attempt to reintroduce colonial-era knighthoods and damehoods. He survived a challenge in February, but a difficult byelection in Western Australia this weekend has again helped to concentrate Liberal minds on the strongest political instinct of them all – survival. Replacing Mr Abbott may have been the easy part for Mr Turnbull, however. The new premier is a modern and liberal figure. He has long been a prominent republican. But he now heads a party which, like many in all countries, is divided about both modernity and liberalism. Mr Turnbull has eased off this week from his earlier progressive positions on issues like climate change and a vote on gay marriage in order to win the leadership. Given that he is opposed by the Murdoch press and that Australian voters, like voters elsewhere, dislike splits and oustings, Mr Turnbull will not have things all his own way in the run-up to a general election next year. Australian politicians may be specialists at wielding the knife, but the dilemmas facing the country and its parties are anything but unusual. Like Europeans and north Americans, Australians face a world in which material prosperity and traditional lifestyles are being forced to adapt to global economic, environmental and cultural pressures. That’s the challenge facing Mr Turnbull and his divided party. But it’s the challenge that, in one way or another, also faces all politics in all developed countries too. |