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Migrant crisis: What is the next route through Europe? Migrant crisis: What is the next route through Europe?
(2 days later)
Now that Hungary has sealed off its border with Serbia, thousands of migrants travelling through Europe are facing the challenge of finding a new route.Now that Hungary has sealed off its border with Serbia, thousands of migrants travelling through Europe are facing the challenge of finding a new route.
But with other EU countries boosting border controls, the long journey to a new life in Germany - or another preferred destination - has become even more complicated.But with other EU countries boosting border controls, the long journey to a new life in Germany - or another preferred destination - has become even more complicated.
Meanwhile European governments are rushing to cope with the huge number of people on the move.Meanwhile European governments are rushing to cope with the huge number of people on the move.
Where will they go?Where will they go?
Crowds have found themselves blocked at Serbia's border with Hungary, after the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orban completed a razor-wire fence to stem the influx. Crowds found themselves blocked at Serbia's border with Hungary, after the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orban completed a razor-wire fence to stem the influx.
The first groups have now crossed into Croatia instead, hoping to carry on through Slovenia to Austria - thus bypassing Hungary. Large numbers have now crossed into Croatia instead, which is in turn sending them on to Hungary and Slovenia.
This is the easiest next step for many of the migrants, according to Martijn Pluim of the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD), and it is likely to be the most popular new route. Slovenia is the easiest next step for many of the migrants, according to Martijn Pluim of the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD).
Going east through Romania is an option, he says, but it is likely to lead people back through Hungary. And crossing into Bosnia is more difficult, and only a detour. Many migrants are heading that way, although Croatia has also said it will "force" Hungary to accept migrants by sending groups to the two countries' common border.
In comparison, the road connection between the capitals of Serbia and Croatia - Belgrade and Zagreb - is good. Going east through Romania is an option, he says. But it is likely to lead people back into Hungary, which has pledged to build a new fence on its Romanian border. Crossing into Bosnia is more difficult, and only a detour.
The authorities in Croatia, which is not in the passport-free Schengen zone, have already said they are ready to receive the migrants or "direct" them to where they want to go. In comparison, the road connection between the capitals of Serbia and Croatia - Belgrade and Zagreb - is good. However, Croatia's closure of many crossings has led to congestion on this route. Many migrants entering Croatia are walking around road crossings anyway.
But there are risks that Slovenia or others members of the EU's Schengen area will decide they need to put more controls on borders. The authorities in Croatia, which is not in the passport-free Schengen zone, had initially said they were ready to receive the migrants or "direct" them to where they want to go. Later they said they were overwhelmed and would only move people on.
But there are risks that Slovenia or others members of the EU's Schengen area will decide they need to put more controls on borders. Slovenia has already tightened security and on Friday pepper sprayed a group of migrants trying to cross.
So migrants could increasingly look to other options. Small numbers have begun travelling from Greece to Albania then Italy by boat, according to reports.So migrants could increasingly look to other options. Small numbers have begun travelling from Greece to Albania then Italy by boat, according to reports.
But the journey across the sea - popular with Albanians crossing to Italy in the 1990s - is risky, with rough waters.But the journey across the sea - popular with Albanians crossing to Italy in the 1990s - is risky, with rough waters.
'Extreme lengths''Extreme lengths'
More than 2,600 migrants, including three-year-old Alan Kurdi, have drowned trying to cross the Mediterranean since January this year, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).More than 2,600 migrants, including three-year-old Alan Kurdi, have drowned trying to cross the Mediterranean since January this year, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
Thousands of migrants at Europe's southern frontier now appear to be trying to avoid the dangerous maritime route between Turkey and Greece, and get in by walking to the Turkish border town of Edirne.Thousands of migrants at Europe's southern frontier now appear to be trying to avoid the dangerous maritime route between Turkey and Greece, and get in by walking to the Turkish border town of Edirne.
There are also unconfirmed reports of Syrians detained in Odessa in southern Ukraine, according to Mr Pluim. They are believed to have taken a boat from Turkey across the Black Sea.There are also unconfirmed reports of Syrians detained in Odessa in southern Ukraine, according to Mr Pluim. They are believed to have taken a boat from Turkey across the Black Sea.
At the continent's northern tip, small numbers of people are believed to have crossed from Russia into Norway.At the continent's northern tip, small numbers of people are believed to have crossed from Russia into Norway.
And there are reports of people walking along the Baltic coast to Finland, according to Elizabeth Collett, of the Migration Policy Institute (MPI).And there are reports of people walking along the Baltic coast to Finland, according to Elizabeth Collett, of the Migration Policy Institute (MPI).
"This demonstrates the extreme lengths people are willing to go to," she added."This demonstrates the extreme lengths people are willing to go to," she added.
Share advice on routesShare advice on routes
Experts say the main assistance migrants ask for when they arrive at junctions in their journey is information.Experts say the main assistance migrants ask for when they arrive at junctions in their journey is information.
"They keep asking where can they go, where can they go for protection," said Melita Sunjic, spokeswoman for the UN's refugee agency UNHCR."They keep asking where can they go, where can they go for protection," said Melita Sunjic, spokeswoman for the UN's refugee agency UNHCR.
Many are increasingly turning to smartphones and social networks such as Whatsapp and Facebook to share advice on routes.Many are increasingly turning to smartphones and social networks such as Whatsapp and Facebook to share advice on routes.
Getting a local Sim card or connecting to wireless internet allows the migrants to use GPS maps, search engines and booking sites.Getting a local Sim card or connecting to wireless internet allows the migrants to use GPS maps, search engines and booking sites.
It is a changing dynamic that has apparently taken some observers by surprise.It is a changing dynamic that has apparently taken some observers by surprise.
But it has also allowed well-connected migrants to avoid the services of people smugglers.But it has also allowed well-connected migrants to avoid the services of people smugglers.
"The majority of people have used at one stage the service of a smuggler - from Turkey to a Greek island for instance," says Mr Pluim of the ICMPD."The majority of people have used at one stage the service of a smuggler - from Turkey to a Greek island for instance," says Mr Pluim of the ICMPD.
"But for the most part of the trip they can do it on their own.""But for the most part of the trip they can do it on their own."
Changing climateChanging climate
The large number of people heading for the European Union is expected to continue, with refugees still fleeing conflicts in countries such as Syria and Afghanistan.The large number of people heading for the European Union is expected to continue, with refugees still fleeing conflicts in countries such as Syria and Afghanistan.
But the political climate and the weather in the continent are more changeable.But the political climate and the weather in the continent are more changeable.
The UN children's charity, Unicef, has announced it is increasing help for women and children at reception centres in Serbia and Macedonia, amid fears people could become stranded.The UN children's charity, Unicef, has announced it is increasing help for women and children at reception centres in Serbia and Macedonia, amid fears people could become stranded.
"As winter is approaching fast, the immediate needs for protection and care of children and pregnant women require urgent action," it said in a statement."As winter is approaching fast, the immediate needs for protection and care of children and pregnant women require urgent action," it said in a statement.
Whereas bad weather is likely to deter people from dangerous sea crossings, the number of migrants travelling by land is not expected to decrease.Whereas bad weather is likely to deter people from dangerous sea crossings, the number of migrants travelling by land is not expected to decrease.
However, the people arriving at Europe's borders may differ.However, the people arriving at Europe's borders may differ.
Many of those so far have come from educated and well-off backgrounds, Mr Pluim says, but more and more migrants are expected to come from poorer families.Many of those so far have come from educated and well-off backgrounds, Mr Pluim says, but more and more migrants are expected to come from poorer families.
They will have fewer resources to spend on safe transport and shelter.They will have fewer resources to spend on safe transport and shelter.
"People will arrive in a more destitute situation, but also when the weather isn't good," he says."People will arrive in a more destitute situation, but also when the weather isn't good," he says.
And there are concerns that countries such as Macedonia, Serbia and Croatia may not be prepared enough to cope.And there are concerns that countries such as Macedonia, Serbia and Croatia may not be prepared enough to cope.
Migrants or refugees?Migrants or refugees?
The word migrant is defined in the Oxford English Dictionary as "one who moves, either temporarily or permanently, from one place, area, or country of residence to another".The word migrant is defined in the Oxford English Dictionary as "one who moves, either temporarily or permanently, from one place, area, or country of residence to another".
A refugee is, according to the 1951 Refugee Convention, any person who "owing to a well-founded fear" of persecution is outside their country of nationality and "unable" or "unwilling" to seek the protection of that country. To gain the status, one has to go through the legal process of claiming asylum.A refugee is, according to the 1951 Refugee Convention, any person who "owing to a well-founded fear" of persecution is outside their country of nationality and "unable" or "unwilling" to seek the protection of that country. To gain the status, one has to go through the legal process of claiming asylum.
The word migrant has traditionally been considered a neutral term, but some criticise the BBC and other media for using a word they say implies something voluntary, and should not be applied to people fleeing danger.The word migrant has traditionally been considered a neutral term, but some criticise the BBC and other media for using a word they say implies something voluntary, and should not be applied to people fleeing danger.
Battle over words to describe migrantsBattle over words to describe migrants