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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/sep/17/us-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-markets-janet-yellen-live

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Federal Reserve puts rate rise on hold - as it happened Federal Reserve puts rate rise on hold - as it happened
(17 days later)
9.30pm BST9.30pm BST
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Federal Reserve keeps interests rates unchanged, says rates could go up later this yearFederal Reserve keeps interests rates unchanged, says rates could go up later this year
We are going to wrap up this live blog, but first here is a quick summary of what happened today:We are going to wrap up this live blog, but first here is a quick summary of what happened today:
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The US markets have just closed. Here is where they were at:The US markets have just closed. Here is where they were at:
Stocks retreated from post-Fed highs to end mostly lower: http://t.co/cKpVTvClJ2 pic.twitter.com/it6X2CsgdeStocks retreated from post-Fed highs to end mostly lower: http://t.co/cKpVTvClJ2 pic.twitter.com/it6X2Csgde
MarketWatch also pointed out that “several emerging-markets currencies, including the Mexican peso, Malaysian ringgit and Korean won, traded higher than the dollar after Federal Reserve policy makers left interest rates unchanged Thursday”.MarketWatch also pointed out that “several emerging-markets currencies, including the Mexican peso, Malaysian ringgit and Korean won, traded higher than the dollar after Federal Reserve policy makers left interest rates unchanged Thursday”.
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Vermont Senator and 2016 presidential candidate Bernie Sanders had released a statement praising the Fed’s decision.Vermont Senator and 2016 presidential candidate Bernie Sanders had released a statement praising the Fed’s decision.
In it, he says:In it, he says:
It is good news that the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates today. At a time when real unemployment is over 10%, we need to do everything possible to create millions of good-paying jobs and raise the wages of the American people. It is now time for the Fed to act with the same sense of urgency to rebuild the disappearing middle class as it did to bail out Wall Street banks seven years ago.It is good news that the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates today. At a time when real unemployment is over 10%, we need to do everything possible to create millions of good-paying jobs and raise the wages of the American people. It is now time for the Fed to act with the same sense of urgency to rebuild the disappearing middle class as it did to bail out Wall Street banks seven years ago.
AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka echoed similar sentiments in his statement. AFL-CIO is the largest federation of unions in the US.AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka echoed similar sentiments in his statement. AFL-CIO is the largest federation of unions in the US.
We are pleased that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged. We know the economic recovery still has not reached working families and even a small increase can have devastating effects on our economic stability.We are pleased that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged. We know the economic recovery still has not reached working families and even a small increase can have devastating effects on our economic stability.
The Federal Reserve is wise to not raise interest rates while inflation is running low and wages are flat. Real wages need to rise with productivity. We hope the Fed will now dedicate its time to producing economic policies that work for all and raise wages to a level that can sustain a family. An out of balance economy that exacerbates the incredible income inequality we see in this country must be fixed to strengthen our families and communities.The Federal Reserve is wise to not raise interest rates while inflation is running low and wages are flat. Real wages need to rise with productivity. We hope the Fed will now dedicate its time to producing economic policies that work for all and raise wages to a level that can sustain a family. An out of balance economy that exacerbates the incredible income inequality we see in this country must be fixed to strengthen our families and communities.
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.03pm BSTat 9.03pm BST
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My colleague Rupert Neate has written a news story about today’s decision.My colleague Rupert Neate has written a news story about today’s decision.
He points out that not all members of the Fed committee agree about when to raise interest rates.He points out that not all members of the Fed committee agree about when to raise interest rates.
The Fed’s decision was not unanimous – as it normally is – with Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Fed’s Atlanta regional bank, casting a vote for an increase. Lacker had pushed for the Fed to begin raising rates by moving the federal funds rate up by a quarter-point.The Fed’s decision was not unanimous – as it normally is – with Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Fed’s Atlanta regional bank, casting a vote for an increase. Lacker had pushed for the Fed to begin raising rates by moving the federal funds rate up by a quarter-point.
Rates are still expected to be raised this year, with 13 of the 17-member committee predicting that the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) will raise rates by at least 0.25 percentage points. However, four policymakers believe that rates should not be raised until at least 2016, including one who pushed out until 2017. In June only two members felt the rate hike should be left unchanged until 2016.Rates are still expected to be raised this year, with 13 of the 17-member committee predicting that the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) will raise rates by at least 0.25 percentage points. However, four policymakers believe that rates should not be raised until at least 2016, including one who pushed out until 2017. In June only two members felt the rate hike should be left unchanged until 2016.
Related: Federal Reserve declines to raise interest rates from record lowRelated: Federal Reserve declines to raise interest rates from record low
UpdatedUpdated
at 8.55pm BSTat 8.55pm BST
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The conference has now wrapped up.The conference has now wrapped up.
In the last few minutes, Yellen answered the following questions:In the last few minutes, Yellen answered the following questions:
Is Fed contributing to financial inequality in the US?Is Fed contributing to financial inequality in the US?
“The main thing that an accommodative monetary policy does is put people back to work,” says Yellen. “Income inequality is surely exacerbated by high unemployment and a weak job market.”“The main thing that an accommodative monetary policy does is put people back to work,” says Yellen. “Income inequality is surely exacerbated by high unemployment and a weak job market.”
Has the Fed hurt non-wealthy with low rates? Yellen: "I don't see it that way."Has the Fed hurt non-wealthy with low rates? Yellen: "I don't see it that way."
Did the possibility of government shutdown affect the Fed’s decision?Did the possibility of government shutdown affect the Fed’s decision?
No, it played no role in the decisions, says Yellen, pointing out that that’s Congress’s job.No, it played no role in the decisions, says Yellen, pointing out that that’s Congress’s job.
“I believe it’s the responsibility of Congress to pass a budget to fund the government and to deal with the debt ceiling so that America pays its bills,” she says.“I believe it’s the responsibility of Congress to pass a budget to fund the government and to deal with the debt ceiling so that America pays its bills,” she says.
For Congress to endanger the progress that the US economy has made so far “would be more than unfortunate”, says Yellen.For Congress to endanger the progress that the US economy has made so far “would be more than unfortunate”, says Yellen.
Yellen says potential Government shutdown played no role in its decision today. That's Congress's job. Next.Yellen says potential Government shutdown played no role in its decision today. That's Congress's job. Next.
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Could US be stuck in zero-interest rates loop?Could US be stuck in zero-interest rates loop?
Not really, says Yellen.Not really, says Yellen.
“I can’t completely rule it out but really that’s an extreme downside risk that in no way is near the center of my outlook,” she says.“I can’t completely rule it out but really that’s an extreme downside risk that in no way is near the center of my outlook,” she says.
Yellen "would be very surprised” if rates are zero forever. That’s not all that reassuring: The Fed has been very surprised frequently,Yellen "would be very surprised” if rates are zero forever. That’s not all that reassuring: The Fed has been very surprised frequently,
Fed Yellen: “I would be very surprised" if the Fed were forever stuck at zero rates.Fed Yellen: “I would be very surprised" if the Fed were forever stuck at zero rates.
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Yellen says that statements of the Federal Open Market Committee members have been parsed for clues as to what the Fed is planning.Yellen says that statements of the Federal Open Market Committee members have been parsed for clues as to what the Fed is planning.
It is an “unfortunate state of affairs”, she says.It is an “unfortunate state of affairs”, she says.
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Here is a look at what happened to the S&P 500 today when the Fed announced its decision:Here is a look at what happened to the S&P 500 today when the Fed announced its decision:
A rough ride, but stocks like the Fed decision. http://t.co/8Za8i1PtiT pic.twitter.com/3I9WCnyyp3A rough ride, but stocks like the Fed decision. http://t.co/8Za8i1PtiT pic.twitter.com/3I9WCnyyp3
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Yellen says that slowing in China’s economy has long been expected and that “there are no surprises there”.Yellen says that slowing in China’s economy has long been expected and that “there are no surprises there”.
“Developments we saw in financial markets in August partly reflected concerns of downside risk to Chinese economic performance and the deftness with which policymakers are addressing those concerns,” says Yellen.“Developments we saw in financial markets in August partly reflected concerns of downside risk to Chinese economic performance and the deftness with which policymakers are addressing those concerns,” says Yellen.
When it comes to markets turbulence, Yellen says they are not responding to it but are analyzing it.When it comes to markets turbulence, Yellen says they are not responding to it but are analyzing it.
“The Fed should not be responding to up and downs in the markets. It certainly is not our policy to do so,” she says, adding that the Fed does ask what is causing these ups and downs.“The Fed should not be responding to up and downs in the markets. It certainly is not our policy to do so,” she says, adding that the Fed does ask what is causing these ups and downs.
Fed Yellen: "The Fed should not be responding to the ups and downs of the markets."Fed Yellen: "The Fed should not be responding to the ups and downs of the markets."
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“We expect inflation to move back to 2%,” says Yellen. Energy prices have created a drag on inflation, but she views it as transitory.“We expect inflation to move back to 2%,” says Yellen. Energy prices have created a drag on inflation, but she views it as transitory.
“In the meantime, the labor market has continued to improve” and is moving closer to full employment which creates upward pressure on inflation, says Yellen.“In the meantime, the labor market has continued to improve” and is moving closer to full employment which creates upward pressure on inflation, says Yellen.
“We’d like to have a little bit more confidence,” she adds, noting that as labor market improves it helps bolster that confidence.“We’d like to have a little bit more confidence,” she adds, noting that as labor market improves it helps bolster that confidence.
7.50pm BST7.50pm BST
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Yellen says that October remains a possibility for interest rate hike, despite that month’s meeting currently being scheduled with no press briefing.Yellen says that October remains a possibility for interest rate hike, despite that month’s meeting currently being scheduled with no press briefing.
Every meeting is a meeting where the committee can make a decision, says Yellen. She adds that if the Fed were to raise interest rates in October, it would than call a press briefing.Every meeting is a meeting where the committee can make a decision, says Yellen. She adds that if the Fed were to raise interest rates in October, it would than call a press briefing.
Oooh. We'll get a bonus briefing if the Fed raises rates without a presser following.Oooh. We'll get a bonus briefing if the Fed raises rates without a presser following.
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“The situation abroad bears watching,” Yellen says before noting that economic recovery at home has advance at a sufficient rate than an argument could be made for raising interest rates. “The economy has been performing well and we expect it to do so.”“The situation abroad bears watching,” Yellen says before noting that economic recovery at home has advance at a sufficient rate than an argument could be made for raising interest rates. “The economy has been performing well and we expect it to do so.”
She says that the decision to raise rates will not be based on any specific data.She says that the decision to raise rates will not be based on any specific data.
Key comments from Janet Yellen: 1. "The situation abroad bears close watching." 2. But "Not fundamentally altered our outlook." #stocks #FedKey comments from Janet Yellen: 1. "The situation abroad bears close watching." 2. But "Not fundamentally altered our outlook." #stocks #Fed
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Dominic Rushe
The monthly jobs report just got even more important. Yellen has just clearly pegged any rate rise to further improvements in the labor market.
“When it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2% objective over the medium term.”
Updated
at 7.43pm BST
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Yellen begins press conference
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is prompt, starting the conference at 2:30 pm.
You can watch it here:
LIVE NOW: Press conference with #FOMC Chair Janet #Yellen: http://t.co/v8ZMdutyPL
Yellen points out that wage growth is still subdued and that inflation remains short of the Fed’s 2% goal.
Updated
at 7.39pm BST
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For a moment there, the markets stumbled but are now right back up.
The market's reaction so far to the Fed pic.twitter.com/x053OQivXD
Ahead of Yellen: Dow, S&P, Nasdaq in the green » http://t.co/V7UtyBB65a pic.twitter.com/KOPmlR30sD
7.26pm BST
19:26
Fed Up campaign, which has spent the last month lobbying the Fed to not raise the interest rates just yet, is definitely happy with today’s decision.
Here is a statement from Ady Barkan, campaign director for Fed Up:
This is a victory for the working families who stepped up with innovative organizing to send the Fed a clear message: Our voices belong in the debate about our economy. With the recovery still far too weak in too many communities, it would have been economically devastating – and immoral – to slow the economy.
We applaud Chair Yellen and the Federal Reserve for resisting the pressure being put on them to intentionally slow down the economy. Weak wage growth proves that the labor market is still very far from full employment. And with inflation still below the Fed’s already low target, there is simply no reason to raise interest rates anytime soon. Across America, working families know that the economy still has not recovered. We hope that the Fed continues to look at the data and refrain from any rate hikes until we reach genuine full employment for all, particularly for the Black and Latino communities who are being left behind in this so-called recovery.
Related: American wages remain at 1997 levels as recovery fails to lift middle class
Updated
at 7.27pm BST
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Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, writes that today’s decision is “merely a temporary forestalling of the inevitable” and that the speculations will now shift to December.
The decision will be seen by many as appropriate. Although the domestic economy appears to be in sound health, current worries about slowing growth outside of the US, notably China, and recent financial market turmoil meant the Fed decided on balance that it’s not a good time for the first US rate hike in almost a decade. But the lack of action leaves lingering uncertainty about the outlook for US policymaking, which will no doubt fuel further volatility in the markets.
Here is what the Fed is likely to look for in the coming weeks and months:
Looks like the Fed thinks natural unemployment is somewhere around 4.8 to 4.9 percent now pic.twitter.com/jXcaLZ3GxA
The Fed wants -"some further improvement in the labor market " -to be "reasonably confident" inflation will reach 2% pic.twitter.com/nrYmZGM0Jh
According to Williamson, “in the absence of any serious derailing of the economy, rates will rise before the year is out” since then it would be difficult for the Fed to again argue that a rate hike is not warranted.
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19:08
Here is AP’s quick-analysis of the Fed’s decision:
The Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates at historic lows for at least another month.
Pressure had been building as to when the US central bank would hike rates from near-zero after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in congressional testimony that it would likely be later this year. But Fed officials held off Thursday after a two-day meeting because inflation is running well below their 2% objective and “recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat.”
It’s extremely rare for Fed officials in their statement to highlight the risks posed by foreign economies. This means that they’re carefully monitoring the aftershocks from a slowdown in China and other emerging markets, in addition to struggles by Europe to increase economic growth.
Fed officials meet again in October and December.
7.02pm BST
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Federal Reserve says it will not raise interest rates
Here is an excerpt from the statement:
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 % target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2% objective over the medium term.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Updated
at 7.03pm BST
6.54pm BST
18:54
The consensus on Financial Twitter seems to be that Fed will hold ...
If the #Fed doesn't want to tighten, it could cite Labor Force Participation. http://t.co/3hei4NAPKa #RawDoc pic.twitter.com/h6Zw2OCXul
Larry Summers: This is not the time for a tightening in monetary policy http://t.co/E5JcWIWJ36 #Fed pic.twitter.com/bM77cykO6h
Wow, the 2-year Treasury yield thinks the Fed's gonna hold. pic.twitter.com/OXqsJO6VAl
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18:47
10 minutes and counting ...
With a little over ten minutes to go till Federal Reserve announces whether it will or will not raise rates, there has been little reaction from the US markets.
Here is a quick rundown of what else has happened so far:
Reminder: you can watch the 2:30 pm press conference here.
WATCH LIVE TODAY: Press conference with #FOMC Chair #Yellen at 2:30 p.m. ET: http://t.co/v8ZMdutyPL
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18:30
Here is a quick look where the markets stand right now:
Markets are pricing in roughly a one-in-four chance the Fed will lift interest rates today: http://t.co/R3ukfX6abd pic.twitter.com/yrwbNb9CCH