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| Germany's economy will grow faster because of the million refugees it is helping, study finds | Germany's economy will grow faster because of the million refugees it is helping, study finds |
| (4 months later) | |
| Germany’s economy will get a significant growth boost over the next few years because of the hundreds of thousands of refugees it is taking in, according to an economic analysis published today. | Germany’s economy will get a significant growth boost over the next few years because of the hundreds of thousands of refugees it is taking in, according to an economic analysis published today. |
| The research, released by Oxford Economics, suggests that an influx of a million people over the next three years would raise the country’s GDP by 0.6 per cent by 2020. | The research, released by Oxford Economics, suggests that an influx of a million people over the next three years would raise the country’s GDP by 0.6 per cent by 2020. |
| The economists said that as well as increasing economic growth, the influx of people could also reduce inflationary pressures – which would give the government more room for economic stimulus. | The economists said that as well as increasing economic growth, the influx of people could also reduce inflationary pressures – which would give the government more room for economic stimulus. |
| “The increase in the number of refugees moving to Europe and other parts of the world is primarily a humanitarian issue, but it will also have economic ramifications for destination countries and, within the Eurozone, Germany in particular,” the researchers said. | “The increase in the number of refugees moving to Europe and other parts of the world is primarily a humanitarian issue, but it will also have economic ramifications for destination countries and, within the Eurozone, Germany in particular,” the researchers said. |
| “We estimate that if, relative to our baseline assumption, an extra million asylum seekers enter Germany over the next three years this could raise GDP by 0.6 per cent by end-2020 and reduce inflationary pressures. But it would not solve the economy’s longer-term demographic problems.” | |
| 0.6 per cent GDP growth is roughly equivalent to a quarter's decent economic growth in recent years. Germany, like most Western countries, has an aging population, a fact an influx of fairly young people would slightly moderate. | 0.6 per cent GDP growth is roughly equivalent to a quarter's decent economic growth in recent years. Germany, like most Western countries, has an aging population, a fact an influx of fairly young people would slightly moderate. |
| Germany’s vice chancellor has previously suggested that the country could accept a million refugees in this year alone, meaning the boost could be even larger than expected. | Germany’s vice chancellor has previously suggested that the country could accept a million refugees in this year alone, meaning the boost could be even larger than expected. |
| “There are many signs that Germany this year will take in not 800,000 refugees, as forecast by the interior ministry, but one million,” Sigmar Gabriel said. | “There are many signs that Germany this year will take in not 800,000 refugees, as forecast by the interior ministry, but one million,” Sigmar Gabriel said. |
| Mr Gabriel has previously said the country could then accept half a million refugees each year for the next few years. | Mr Gabriel has previously said the country could then accept half a million refugees each year for the next few years. |
| Earlier this week Conservative MP Bill Cash told the House of Commons that it was in Germany’s economic interest to accept the refugees. | Earlier this week Conservative MP Bill Cash told the House of Commons that it was in Germany’s economic interest to accept the refugees. |
| “Some of their policies have clearly been orientated to assisting their own internal economic problems,” he said – before decrying the number of people entering Europe as a “tsunami”. | “Some of their policies have clearly been orientated to assisting their own internal economic problems,” he said – before decrying the number of people entering Europe as a “tsunami”. |
| The economic benefits of migration are well-researched and established. A study published by the London School of Economics earlier this year found that immigration to Britain had not increased unemployment or reduced wages in areas where it had occurred. | The economic benefits of migration are well-researched and established. A study published by the London School of Economics earlier this year found that immigration to Britain had not increased unemployment or reduced wages in areas where it had occurred. |
| Last month the Institute of Directors attacked the Government for “punishing business” with its “bizarre” and “unachievable” target reduce net migration. | Last month the Institute of Directors attacked the Government for “punishing business” with its “bizarre” and “unachievable” target reduce net migration. |
| Britain has pledged only to take 4,000 Syrian refugees a year for the next five years, a small-scale commitment which is unlikely to have a significant economic effect. | Britain has pledged only to take 4,000 Syrian refugees a year for the next five years, a small-scale commitment which is unlikely to have a significant economic effect. |
| The UK has however contributed a significant amount of overseas aid to improve the situation on the ground in Syria. | The UK has however contributed a significant amount of overseas aid to improve the situation on the ground in Syria. |