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U.S. Begins Military Talks With Russia on Syria U.S. Begins Military Talks With Russia on Syria
(35 minutes later)
LONDON — As the first Russian combat aircraft arrived in Syria, the Obama administration reached out to Moscow on Friday to try to coordinate actions in the war zone and avoid an accidental escalation of one of the world’s most volatile conflicts. LONDON — As the first Russian combat aircraft arrived in Syria, the Obama administration reached out to Moscow on Friday to try to coordinate actions in the war zone and avoid an accidental escalation of one of the world’s most volatile conflicts.
The diplomatic initiative amounted to a pivot for the Obama administration, which just two weeks ago delivered a stern warning to the Kremlin that its military buildup in Syria risked an escalation of the civil war there or even an inadvertent confrontation with the United States. Last week, President Obama condemned Russia’s move as a “strategy that’s doomed to failure.”The diplomatic initiative amounted to a pivot for the Obama administration, which just two weeks ago delivered a stern warning to the Kremlin that its military buildup in Syria risked an escalation of the civil war there or even an inadvertent confrontation with the United States. Last week, President Obama condemned Russia’s move as a “strategy that’s doomed to failure.”
But the White House seemed to acknowledge that the Kremlin had effectively changed the calculus in Syria in a way that would not be soon reversed despite vigorous American objections. The decision to start talks also reflected a hope that Russia might yet be drawn into a more constructive role in resolving the four-year-old civil war.But the White House seemed to acknowledge that the Kremlin had effectively changed the calculus in Syria in a way that would not be soon reversed despite vigorous American objections. The decision to start talks also reflected a hope that Russia might yet be drawn into a more constructive role in resolving the four-year-old civil war.
The Pentagon announced that Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter had spoken by telephone on Friday with Sergei K. Shoigu, the Russian minister of defense. It was Mr. Carter’s first discussion with his Russian counterpart since he took office seven months ago. The two men agreed to continue discussions on “mechanisms for deconfliction” in Syria, Peter Cook, the Pentagon press secretary, said in a statement. At Mr. Obama’s instruction, Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter on Friday opened a dialogue on Syria with his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu, aimed at making sure that American and Russian forces avoid running into each other by mistake. The Russians have sent tanks, other equipment, marines and now combat aircraft to its new military hub near Latakia in western Syria. The Americans have flown hundreds of air missions in Syria striking the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL.
Russia has been stepping up its support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria in recent weeks. It has developed an air base near Latakia, and has deployed combat aircraft there in recent days, including four Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker fighter jets, four large Hip troop-transport helicopters and four Hind helicopter gunships, a senior United States official in Washington said. But while Mr. Carter’s initial military-to-military talks were limited in scope, officials indicated that the larger goal was to draw the Russians into a political process that would ultimately replace Syria’s government of President Bashar al-Assad, a longtime ally of the Kremlin.
The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential intelligence reports, said that more than 20 Condor transport plane flights had landed and delivered matériel at the air base in the past 10 days. “The president believes that a mil-to-mil conversation is an important next step,” Secretary of State John Kerry said on Friday in London, where he was visiting to consult with allies. “It will help to define some of the different options that are available to us.”
Another American official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that the fighter jets had been sighted at the base. Still, the stakes have become even higher, as a senior United States official on Friday confirmed that four Russian Su-27 fighter aircraft had been deployed to the air base in recent days, along with four large Hip troop-transport helicopters and four Hind helicopter gunships. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence reports, said that more than 20 Condor transport plane flights had delivered weapons and equipment to the air base in the past 10 days.
Russia has also deployed modern T-90 tanks, howitzers, and armored personnel carriers at the airfield, weapons that appear intended to defend the base rather than engage in large-scale ground combat. Two hundred Russian marines have been sent to the base, and temporary housing has been built for as many as 1,500 personnel. The Russian military buildup in Syria could serve the Kremlin’s interests in several ways. It could help strengthen Mr. Assad, whom Russia has long backed and who has suffered a number of military reversals in recent months. It could put Moscow in a stronger position to shape the formation of a new Syrian government if Mr. Assad is pushed out of power. It also helps Russia cement its strategic interests in what experts say is its most important new Middle East military outpost in decades.
Mr. Cook described the discussion between Mr. Carter and Mr. Shoigu as “constructive,” and said the two men had “talked about areas where the United States and Russia’s perspectives overlap, and areas of divergence.” Mr. Shoigu told Mr. Carter that the Russian military buildup in Syria was defensive in nature, Pentagon officials said. Some former diplomats view the Russian move as a brazen effort to undercut American influence in the region.
The initial purpose of the talks with Russia, Secretary of State John Kerry said in London, will be to help “define some of the different options that are available to us as we consider next steps in Syria.” “The whole region is watching this,” said James F. Jeffrey, a former American ambassador in Iraq and Turkey. “Russia is trying to change the security dynamic in the Middle East and demonstrating that it supports its allies to the hilt. The White House is sitting there and worrying about de-conflicting airplanes when we should be upping our efforts against Assad.”
Mr. Kerry said that the Obama administration would not change its basic goals in Syria: the defeat of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, and a political solution for the conflict there. But after failing to impede the buildup by convincing nations to close their airspace to Russian transport planes — Bulgaria banned the flights but Iraq did not — the White House is trying to make the best out of a situation it feels it is powerless to prevent.
But though the administration has long said that President Assad must go for there to be a durable solution to the Syria crisis, Mr. Kerry seemed on Friday to allow for the possibility that Mr. Assad might remain in power in the short term. Mr. Assad has had Russia’s backing throughout the conflict. Administration officials have long argued that Mr. Assad’s brutal and often indiscriminate crackdown against its foes has encouraged support for the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. And they seem intent on exploring the closed-door comments by Russian diplomats that they are not wedded to the Syrian leader.
“Our focus remains on destroying ISIL and also on a political settlement with respect to Syria, which we believe cannot be achieved with the long-term presence of Assad,” Mr. Kerry said. “But we’re looking for ways in which to try to find a common ground. Clearly, if you’re going to have a political settlement, which we’ve always argued is the best and only way to resolve Syria, you need to have conversations with people, and you need to find a common ground.” As Western officials look for a political solution, they appear to be demonstrating some flexibility. Though the Obama administration has long said that Mr. Assad must go in order for there to be a durable solution to the Syria crisis, Mr. Kerry allowed for the possibility that Mr. Assad might remain in power in the short term.
Mr. Kerry made his remarks in London at the start of a meeting with Abdullah bin Zayed, the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates. Mr. Kerry also plans to meet on Saturday with the British foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, and then will travel to Germany on Sunday for discussions focused mainly on the Syria crisis and the refugee situation in Europe. “Our focus remains on destroying ISIL and also on a political settlement with respect to Syria, which we believe cannot be achieved with the long-term presence of Assad,” Mr. Kerry said at the start of a meeting here with Abdullah bin Zayed, the United Arab Emirates foreign minister. “But we’re looking for ways in which to try to find a common ground.”
With Mr. Kerry’s comments on Friday, the Obama administration’s position on the Russian steps has shifted, from objecting vociferously to trying to manage events. Philip Hammond, the British foreign secretary whom Mr. Kerry is scheduled to meet on Saturday, made a similar point earlier this month.
On Sept. 5, Mr. Kerry warned Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, that the Kremlin should not expand its military support for the Syrian government. The Russian buildup, Mr. Kerry said in a telephone conversation with Mr. Lavrov, “could further escalate the conflict” and might even “risk confrontation” with the American-led coalition that is conducting airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria, according to a State Department account of the call. “We are not saying Assad and all his cronies have to go on day one,” Mr. Hammond told a parliamentary committee. “If there was a process that was agreed, including with the Russians and the Iranians, which took a period of months and there was a transition out during that period of months, we could certainly discuss that.”
The United States also sought to impede the Russian buildup. Bulgaria closed its airspace to Russian transport planes at the request of the United States. Iraq, however, did not take any action, which has allowed the Russians to keep delivering weapons and equipment to Syria. The Russian aircraft that arrived in Syria this week followed the deployment of modern T-90 tanks, howitzers, and armored personnel carriers. More than 200 Russian marines have been sent to the air base, and temporary housing has been built for as many as 1,500 personnel.
Russia made the next diplomatic move. Seeking to rebut Mr. Kerry’s assertion that the Russian deployment could fuel the Syrian conflict, Mr. Lavrov said last week that the Russian military was prepared to coordinate with the Pentagon to avoid “unintended incidents.” He repeated the offer for military-to-military talks in a telephone conversation with Mr. Kerry on Tuesday. Mr. Carter’s call to Mr. Shoigu was his first conversation with his Russian counterpart since he took office seven months ago. The two men agreed to continue discussions on “mechanisms for deconfliction” in Syria, Peter Cook, the Pentagon press secretary, said in a statement. Mr. Shoigu told Mr. Carter that the Russian military buildup in Syria was defensive in nature, Pentagon officials said.
In Moscow, the foreign ministry said it had always welcomed discussions with Washington about Syria. “We have never refused dialogue with the U.S., and we remain open to one now on all issues of mutual interest, including Syria,” Maria Zakharova, the ministry spokeswoman, told the state-run RIA Novosti agency. The prospect that military talks could lead to a broader agreement, however, seemed distant to some former administration officials.
A spokesman for the Russian defense ministry, Igor Konashenkov, confirmed the conversation between Mr. Carter and Mr. Shoigu, and said it signaled the resumption of military-to-military contacts that were broken off when Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014. “With respect to getting the Russians to be a useful partner in a political settlement, we’ve tried that twice under better circumstances and failed,” said Michael A. McFaul, a former Obama adviser and ambassador to Russia.
The Syrian foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, denied in an interview on Syrian state television Friday that any Russian troops in Syria are involved in combat, but he held out the possibility that his government might ask the Russians for such help in the future. He maintained that the Syrian Army was capable of defending the country, though he said that Russia had “stepped up the pace” of deliveries of weapons and ammunition that the army needs. Moreover, experts said both sides were approaching the issue from weakened positions that could complicate a common diplomatic strategy. “The positions of both Moscow and Washington’s proxies are worsening,” said Andrew J. Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Asked about Mr. Moallem’s remarks, Dmitri Peskov, the spokesman for President Vladimir V. Putin, told reporters in Moscow that if the Syrian government asked Russia to send combat troops, the request would be “discussed and considered.” “The Russians are going into Syria because the regime’s position in the north is deteriorating” he noted, adding that Washington is unable to recruit and train a viable opposition to fight the Islamic State” because the rebels’ main interest is in fighting Mr. Assad. Given divisions between Moscow and Washington, he said, “it’s hard to see how you turn convergence on tactical military issues into a collective and viable political strategy to stabilize Syria and end the war.”
In the meantime, some experts said military-to-military talks between Washington and Moscow could be useful in minimizing the risk of inadvertent confrontations in Syria between the Russian forces there and the American-led coalition fighting the Islamic State. But some observers also expressed skepticism that such discussions could evolve into more far-reaching cooperation to end the conflict. But that appears to be precisely Mr. Kerry’s goal. “They allege that they also share the goal of a political transition that leads to a stable, whole, united, secular Syria,” Mr. Kerry said of the Russians on Britain’s Channel 4. “The question always remains, Where is Assad’s place and role within that? And that’s what we need to have more conversation on.”
“Given coalition operations in Syria, deconfliction is necessary,” said Andrew J. Tabler, an expert on Syria at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “But the fact is, the positions of both Moscow and Washington’s proxies are worsening. The Russians are going into Syria because the regime’s position in the north is deteriorating, not improving.”
“Washington is unable to recruit and train a viable opposition to fight the Islamic State because it has been unwilling to commit to a military strategy that would combat ISIS and also remove Assad from power,” Mr. Tabler added. “Given the chasm between Moscow and Washington on the viability of Assad’s dwindling forces and rigid political positions, it’s hard to see how you turn convergence on tactical military issues into a collective and viable political strategy to stabilize Syria and end the war.”