No voters shifted to Yes 'soon after referendum'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34291562

Version 0 of 1.

The election of a Conservative UK government in May has not made a significant change to public opinion around Scottish independence, according to an academic study.

The research found that a small shift of 'No' voters towards supporting independence took place soon after last year's referendum.

Repeated surveying of a group of 5,000 Scottish voters shows little change during 2015 in the group who voted 'No' last year but were uncertain about doing so.

They are seen as being the vital group for independence supporters to win over, if there is to be another referendum.

The Scottish Referendum Study found that 17% of voters last year were in the 'unsure no' category, compared with 12% who were not sure but voted 'Yes'.

Its survey work went on to find that there has been no sign of a shift from the pro-independence voters to those backing the union.

However, nearly a third of the sample - of 977 'unsure no' voters - said they would vote 'Yes' if there were another referendum.

In addition, a third of the 'unsure no' voters said they supported another referendum being held, though that support fell between surveys in February and in May.

More than 80% of 'Yes' voters want to see another referendum on independence, including the 12% of the total who were 'unsure yes' voters.

The research, authored by Robert Johns of Essex University, found there was little change in voting intentions between February and May, indicating that the outcome of the Westminster election did not make a difference to Scottish views on independence.

That fits with other polling evidence which suggests the shift towards a 'Yes' vote took place not long after the referendum.

The academic study looked into other possible reasons why some 'unsure no' voters had shifted to 'Yes' - such as feeling more Scottish or believing that the promised extra powers for Holyrood have not been delivered. None of the statistics support such reasons.

"Any shift in support for independence has not really been a gradual process over the year since the referendum," Mr Johns wrote.

"Minds were not changed by a Conservative win in 2015 or a steady decline in a sense of Britishness, or some other process we can trace over the post-referendum period.

"Instead, it seems to have happened quickly, triggered more by the referendum outcome than by events since. It might be said that they were potential 'Yes' voters all along."

The findings are the latest to be published by the Scottish Referendum Study, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and also including academics at the universities of Edinburgh and Glasgow.

They are in line with other poll findings over the past year.

According to Professor John Curtice, a polling expert at Strathclyde University, the average of 25 polls taken since the referendum shows 51% for 'No' and 49% for 'Yes'.

There was little sign of a shift being dynamic during the year but of a shift soon after the referendum.

In the past month, the average of five opinion polls has shown a 50:50 split.