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| Catalonia election: what does victory for pro-independence parties mean? | Catalonia election: what does victory for pro-independence parties mean? |
| (38 minutes later) | |
| 1. Pro-secessionist parties won the election | 1. Pro-secessionist parties won the election |
| With almost all of the 4.1m votes counted, the two pro-secessionist parties, Junts pel Sí (Together for Yes) and Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), have won 72 of Catalonia’s 135 seats, giving them a majority. | With almost all of the 4.1m votes counted, the two pro-secessionist parties, Junts pel Sí (Together for Yes) and Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), have won 72 of Catalonia’s 135 seats, giving them a majority. |
| On paper at least, the two secessionist parties have the numbers they need to advance their pledge to declare independence within the next 18 months. | On paper at least, the two secessionist parties have the numbers they need to advance their pledge to declare independence within the next 18 months. |
| But although the vote was billed as a plebiscite on independence, it was a regional parliamentary election. In such systems the legitimacy and mandate of any government comes from having a majority in parliament. For example, the People’s party (PP) of the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has a majority in the national parliament, having won 44.6% of the vote in 2011. In Britain, the Conservatives command a majority in the House of Commons with 37% of the popular vote. | But although the vote was billed as a plebiscite on independence, it was a regional parliamentary election. In such systems the legitimacy and mandate of any government comes from having a majority in parliament. For example, the People’s party (PP) of the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has a majority in the national parliament, having won 44.6% of the vote in 2011. In Britain, the Conservatives command a majority in the House of Commons with 37% of the popular vote. |
| However, the slim margin of victory on Sunday means the two pro-independence parties, which have little in common apart from the desire to break away from Spain, will struggle to put together a stable government – and any administration they form is unlikely to last a full legislature. | However, the slim margin of victory on Sunday means the two pro-independence parties, which have little in common apart from the desire to break away from Spain, will struggle to put together a stable government – and any administration they form is unlikely to last a full legislature. |
| Related: Catalan separatists win election and claim it as yes vote for breakaway | Related: Catalan separatists win election and claim it as yes vote for breakaway |
| 2. Most Catalans want a different relationship with Madrid | 2. Most Catalans want a different relationship with Madrid |
| The two pro-secessionist parties won 47.8% of the vote on Sunday. But it would be erroneous to imply from this that 52% of Catalans are content with the status quo. | The two pro-secessionist parties won 47.8% of the vote on Sunday. But it would be erroneous to imply from this that 52% of Catalans are content with the status quo. |
| More than 1.9 million Catalans didn’t simply vote for pro-independence parties, they cast a ballot for two parties that have pledged to unilaterally declare independence outside the domain of what is constitutionally and legally allowed. | More than 1.9 million Catalans didn’t simply vote for pro-independence parties, they cast a ballot for two parties that have pledged to unilaterally declare independence outside the domain of what is constitutionally and legally allowed. |
| Polling in fact reveals that among those against independence, voters are split down the middle between those satisfied with the existing state of affairs and those who want a new relationship with Madrid, for example through a federal arrangement. | Polling in fact reveals that among those against independence, voters are split down the middle between those satisfied with the existing state of affairs and those who want a new relationship with Madrid, for example through a federal arrangement. |
| What’s critical here is the trend. | What’s critical here is the trend. |
| In the 2012 Catalonian election, the parties that make up Junts pel Sí and CUP won a combined 1.74m votes. In the informal consultation on independence held in 2014, 1.8 million people cast a ballot in favour of an independent Catalan state. On Sunday, 1.95 million people cast a ballot for the pro-independence parties. | In the 2012 Catalonian election, the parties that make up Junts pel Sí and CUP won a combined 1.74m votes. In the informal consultation on independence held in 2014, 1.8 million people cast a ballot in favour of an independent Catalan state. On Sunday, 1.95 million people cast a ballot for the pro-independence parties. |
| Five years ago support for independence hovered around 25%. Now, nearly one in two Catalans is in favour of secession. | Five years ago support for independence hovered around 25%. Now, nearly one in two Catalans is in favour of secession. |
| This support for independence has increased as the debate between Barcelona and Madrid over a referendum and constitutional reform has dragged on without a solution in sight. | This support for independence has increased as the debate between Barcelona and Madrid over a referendum and constitutional reform has dragged on without a solution in sight. |
| If there is one lesson to draw from Scotland’s independence referendum, it is that this particular trend is unlikely to change any time soon. | If there is one lesson to draw from Scotland’s independence referendum, it is that this particular trend is unlikely to change any time soon. |
| Turnout in the Scottish vote was 84.5% – and the enthusiasm carried through to May’s UK general election. Turnout in Scotland at the general election was 71.1% (up more than seven points compared with 2010). The SNP won 50% of the vote and all but three of Scotland’s 59 seats (50 more than in 2010). | Turnout in the Scottish vote was 84.5% – and the enthusiasm carried through to May’s UK general election. Turnout in Scotland at the general election was 71.1% (up more than seven points compared with 2010). The SNP won 50% of the vote and all but three of Scotland’s 59 seats (50 more than in 2010). |
| Voter turnout in Sunday’s Catalonian election was at a record high of 77.4%. | Voter turnout in Sunday’s Catalonian election was at a record high of 77.4%. |
| It is not just the enthusiasm that was sustained in Scotland – the country remains equally divided over the question of independence and a second referendum is now potentially on the cards. | It is not just the enthusiasm that was sustained in Scotland – the country remains equally divided over the question of independence and a second referendum is now potentially on the cards. |
| The conundrum for Spain’s government is that although its approach has played no small part in fuelling secessionist instincts, allowing a referendum may not put to rest the question of independence. | The conundrum for Spain’s government is that although its approach has played no small part in fuelling secessionist instincts, allowing a referendum may not put to rest the question of independence. |
| The challenge for the pro-independence parties will be to take their regional plight on to the national stage at the general election later this year. | The challenge for the pro-independence parties will be to take their regional plight on to the national stage at the general election later this year. |
| 3. The Citizens party surge is real | 3. The Citizens party surge is real |
| It is difficult to project a regional result on to a national stage, especially one so imbued with local issues. | It is difficult to project a regional result on to a national stage, especially one so imbued with local issues. |
| However, there are some trends in the Catalonian result that could have an impact on the general election. | However, there are some trends in the Catalonian result that could have an impact on the general election. |
| With nearly 18% of the vote, the centrist Citizens party won 25 seats on Sunday, making it the second largest party in the Catalonian parliament, nearly tripling its support in seats (it won nine in 2012) and votes (from 275,000 to nearly 735,000). | With nearly 18% of the vote, the centrist Citizens party won 25 seats on Sunday, making it the second largest party in the Catalonian parliament, nearly tripling its support in seats (it won nine in 2012) and votes (from 275,000 to nearly 735,000). |
| The party, which outperformed the polls, has gone from being a regional party to a national one only this year, but could hold the balance of power in the general election – it’s already polling well above 10% across Spain. | |
| In terms of Spain’s two largest parties, the socialists recorded their worst-ever result in Catalonia, although they did better than most polls suggested and won more seats than Catalonia Yes we Can (CSQEP), an alliance of leftwing parties and anti-austerity parties Initiative for Catalonia Greens-United, Alternative Left, Podemos and Equo. The result will be particularly disappointing for Podemos. | In terms of Spain’s two largest parties, the socialists recorded their worst-ever result in Catalonia, although they did better than most polls suggested and won more seats than Catalonia Yes we Can (CSQEP), an alliance of leftwing parties and anti-austerity parties Initiative for Catalonia Greens-United, Alternative Left, Podemos and Equo. The result will be particularly disappointing for Podemos. |
| The governing People’s party lost eight seats compared with 2012. With a general election just a few months away, it is difficult to see how it can win a majority. In the general election of 2011, the PP won more than 20% of the vote in the region, taking 11 seats. | The governing People’s party lost eight seats compared with 2012. With a general election just a few months away, it is difficult to see how it can win a majority. In the general election of 2011, the PP won more than 20% of the vote in the region, taking 11 seats. |
| Just as in elections held in 13 regions earlier this year, the Citizens party is winning support from former PP voters, and is pitching itself as an alternative on the centre-right. In those 13 elections, although the PP remained the largest party across the contested regions, it lost its absolute majorities in eight of them, including its historical strongholds of Madrid and Valencia. | Just as in elections held in 13 regions earlier this year, the Citizens party is winning support from former PP voters, and is pitching itself as an alternative on the centre-right. In those 13 elections, although the PP remained the largest party across the contested regions, it lost its absolute majorities in eight of them, including its historical strongholds of Madrid and Valencia. |