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Will Pope Francis have a lasting effect on the US immigration debate? Will Pope Francis have a lasting effect on the US immigration debate?
(35 minutes later)
If God works in mysterious ways, then what of Pope Francis and his effect on America’s anguished debate over immigration? If God works in mysterious ways, then what of Pope Francis and his effect on the US’s anguished debate over immigration?
The pontiff attempted to hush an at-times ugly and xenophobic clamour with passionate appeals for compassion and recognition that immigrants built the United States, a message deftly dressed up in the symbols and pageantry of the founding fathers.The pontiff attempted to hush an at-times ugly and xenophobic clamour with passionate appeals for compassion and recognition that immigrants built the United States, a message deftly dressed up in the symbols and pageantry of the founding fathers.
He told Congress: “In recent centuries, millions of people came to this land to pursue their dream of building a future in freedom. We, the people of this continent, are not fearful of foreigners, because most of us were once foreigners. I say this to you as the son of immigrants, knowing that so many of you are also descended from immigrants.”He told Congress: “In recent centuries, millions of people came to this land to pursue their dream of building a future in freedom. We, the people of this continent, are not fearful of foreigners, because most of us were once foreigners. I say this to you as the son of immigrants, knowing that so many of you are also descended from immigrants.”
And he issued this challenge to those who oppose further immigration, particularly from Latin America: “Thousands of persons are led to travel north in search of a better life for themselves and for their loved ones, in search of greater opportunities. Is this not what we want for our own children? We must not be taken aback by their numbers, but rather view them as persons, seeing their faces and listening to their stories, trying to respond as best we can to their situation.”And he issued this challenge to those who oppose further immigration, particularly from Latin America: “Thousands of persons are led to travel north in search of a better life for themselves and for their loved ones, in search of greater opportunities. Is this not what we want for our own children? We must not be taken aback by their numbers, but rather view them as persons, seeing their faces and listening to their stories, trying to respond as best we can to their situation.”
But now Francis is back in Rome, the crowds that cheered him last week in Washington, New York and Philadelphia have dispersed and his exhortation hangs in the air – a question mark over the presidential primary campaign.But now Francis is back in Rome, the crowds that cheered him last week in Washington, New York and Philadelphia have dispersed and his exhortation hangs in the air – a question mark over the presidential primary campaign.
Republican and Democratic leaders treated the visitor with reverence last week, but that does not mean they will heed a 78-year-old Argentinian with no caucus, no Super Pac, not even a vote.Republican and Democratic leaders treated the visitor with reverence last week, but that does not mean they will heed a 78-year-old Argentinian with no caucus, no Super Pac, not even a vote.
Interviews with activists and analysts from both sides of the aisle supply three interlinked prophecies about the “Francis effect”: Donald Trump will continue bashing immigrants anyway, but the pope will embolden other candidates to confront the GOP frontrunner, and the pontiff’s visit and his words will galvanise Latinos to mobilise, especially in swing states. Interviews with activists and analysts from both sides of the aisle supply three interlinked prophecies about the “Francis effect”: Donald Trump will continue bashing immigrants anyway, but the pope will embolden other candidates to confront the Republican frontrunner, and the pontiff’s visit and his words will galvanise Latinos to mobilise, especially in swing states.
Temporarily eclipsed by an even bigger media star, Trump rolled with the Francis-mania last week. He refrained from fresh outbursts calling Mexican immigrants “criminals” and “rapists”, and instead hailed the pope’s words on immigration as “beautiful”.Temporarily eclipsed by an even bigger media star, Trump rolled with the Francis-mania last week. He refrained from fresh outbursts calling Mexican immigrants “criminals” and “rapists”, and instead hailed the pope’s words on immigration as “beautiful”.
No one expects a Damascene conversion from the tycoon-turned-insurgent candidate. His lead in the polls is based on being an outsider who feeds alienated conservative voters “applause lines” and “hysterics”, said Leslie Sanchez, a consultant affiliated with the Republican party.No one expects a Damascene conversion from the tycoon-turned-insurgent candidate. His lead in the polls is based on being an outsider who feeds alienated conservative voters “applause lines” and “hysterics”, said Leslie Sanchez, a consultant affiliated with the Republican party.
A Pew Research Center report published this week to coincide with the 50th anniversary of a landmark immigration act noted some demographic forces that fuel that support. In 1965 whites comprised 84% of the population. After decades of further immigration whites now comprise 62%, a proportion set to shrink further to 48% by 2055 and 46% by 2065, when a quarter of the US population will be Latino. A Pew Research Center report published this week to coincide with the 50th anniversary of a landmark immigration act noted some demographic forces that fuel that support. In 1965, 84% of the population was white. After decades of further immigration white people now comprise 62%, a proportion set to shrink further to 48% by 2055 and 46% by 2065, when a quarter of the US population will be Latino.
Some 53% of adults who identified as Republican said immigrants made the country worse, versus 31% who said they made it better. Those who back Trump’s call for mass deportations and a 2,000-mile border wall with Mexico seem unimpressed or unaware, however, that the number of border crossers peaked a decade ago and that Mexico’s fertility rates have plunged.Some 53% of adults who identified as Republican said immigrants made the country worse, versus 31% who said they made it better. Those who back Trump’s call for mass deportations and a 2,000-mile border wall with Mexico seem unimpressed or unaware, however, that the number of border crossers peaked a decade ago and that Mexico’s fertility rates have plunged.
A candidate who scorns a pope’s heartfelt appeal could in theory alienate Catholic voters. Catholics comprise about one in four of US voters, and in 2012 they broke almost evenly for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.A candidate who scorns a pope’s heartfelt appeal could in theory alienate Catholic voters. Catholics comprise about one in four of US voters, and in 2012 they broke almost evenly for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
But only about a fifth of Catholics say they are guided by their religion when casting ballots, said Luis Fraga, a specialist in Latino politics and ethnicity at the University of Notre Dame, and that usually relates to issues like abortion and same-sex marriage. But only about one-fifth of Catholics say they are guided by their religion when casting ballots, said Luis Fraga, a specialist in Latino politics and ethnicity at the University of Notre Dame, and that usually relates to issues like abortion and same-sex marriage.
Robert Royal, a Catholic author and director of the Faith and Reason Institute, agreed immigration was unlikely to lose Trump Catholic supporters. “I have serious doubts that those who regrettably are supporting Trump on this issue will change their minds because of the holy father’s words. He may be charismatic and had an emotional effect but on a lot of these [political] issues people have already made up their minds and they don’t connect them to their religious beliefs.”Robert Royal, a Catholic author and director of the Faith and Reason Institute, agreed immigration was unlikely to lose Trump Catholic supporters. “I have serious doubts that those who regrettably are supporting Trump on this issue will change their minds because of the holy father’s words. He may be charismatic and had an emotional effect but on a lot of these [political] issues people have already made up their minds and they don’t connect them to their religious beliefs.”
Joshua Bowman, a conservative Catholic blogger, said Catholics were not obliged to embrace the papal exhortation about immigration. “It’s not a question of dogmatic truth. If people are generally opposed to immigration they’ll just scratch their heads and move on.” Those who crossed the border illegally had broken the law, said Bowman, and scripture frowned on law-breakers.Joshua Bowman, a conservative Catholic blogger, said Catholics were not obliged to embrace the papal exhortation about immigration. “It’s not a question of dogmatic truth. If people are generally opposed to immigration they’ll just scratch their heads and move on.” Those who crossed the border illegally had broken the law, said Bowman, and scripture frowned on law-breakers.
Daniel Garza, executive director of the Libre Initiative, a libertarian-leaning Hispanic thinktank, said some hardline immigration foes had entrenched their positions despite the pope’s appeal. “I’m not sure he’s moved the dial. What the pope did was advance sentiment, not policy. A large majority of Americans agree with that sentiment but how do you translate that into policy? That’s where the rubber hits the road.”Daniel Garza, executive director of the Libre Initiative, a libertarian-leaning Hispanic thinktank, said some hardline immigration foes had entrenched their positions despite the pope’s appeal. “I’m not sure he’s moved the dial. What the pope did was advance sentiment, not policy. A large majority of Americans agree with that sentiment but how do you translate that into policy? That’s where the rubber hits the road.”
There lies opportunity for the Francis effect. Two-thirds of Americans want immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship for the estimated 11 million undocumented people as long as they meet certain requirements.There lies opportunity for the Francis effect. Two-thirds of Americans want immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship for the estimated 11 million undocumented people as long as they meet certain requirements.
In that sense the pope was preaching to the converted when, speaking in Philadelphia from the walnut lectern Abraham Lincoln used for the Gettysburg address, he hailed immigrants for bringing “many gifts” to their adopted home.In that sense the pope was preaching to the converted when, speaking in Philadelphia from the walnut lectern Abraham Lincoln used for the Gettysburg address, he hailed immigrants for bringing “many gifts” to their adopted home.
It was an appeal to America’s vision of itself as the land of opportunity, an optimistic message Ronald Reagan embraced when he granted amnesty to millions of undocumented immigrants in 1986.It was an appeal to America’s vision of itself as the land of opportunity, an optimistic message Ronald Reagan embraced when he granted amnesty to millions of undocumented immigrants in 1986.
Mitt Romney’s rhetoric about “self-deportation” alienated Latinos and contributed to his defeat in 2012, prompting a GOP inquest which concluded the party urgently needed to adapt for 2016.Mitt Romney’s rhetoric about “self-deportation” alienated Latinos and contributed to his defeat in 2012, prompting a GOP inquest which concluded the party urgently needed to adapt for 2016.
Marco Rubio’s push for immigration reform in Congress, and Jeb Bush calling immigration an “act of love” signalled ambitions to run for the White House as kinder, more inclusive Republicans.Marco Rubio’s push for immigration reform in Congress, and Jeb Bush calling immigration an “act of love” signalled ambitions to run for the White House as kinder, more inclusive Republicans.
But the sour, anxious mood of the party base had turned toxic and gave Trump his opening. Even if the casino owner loses the primary the risk is he will compel the nominee into focusing on border security and crackdowns, positions which sabotaged Romney, and a prospect party leaders dread. But the sour, anxious mood of the party base had turned toxic and gave Trump his opening. Even if he loses the primary the risk is he will compel the nominee into focusing on border security and crackdowns, positions which sabotaged Romney, and a prospect party leaders dread.
Sanchez, the Republican consultant, said Francis’s message came amid a search for an escape hatch for the party. “There is mounting pressure on Republican candidates to come up with a more mainstream, immigrant-friendly reform solution. And now we have the pope. I think it’ll have an impact.” She predicted a return to a more conciliatory tone, especially from Bush. “The best time to see it will be the next presidential debate.” That is on 28 October in Boulder, Colorado.Sanchez, the Republican consultant, said Francis’s message came amid a search for an escape hatch for the party. “There is mounting pressure on Republican candidates to come up with a more mainstream, immigrant-friendly reform solution. And now we have the pope. I think it’ll have an impact.” She predicted a return to a more conciliatory tone, especially from Bush. “The best time to see it will be the next presidential debate.” That is on 28 October in Boulder, Colorado.
Enrique Pumar, a sociology professor and race relations expert at the Catholic University of America, said a moderating effect was already visible – Trump focusing on tax rather than immigration, Rubio rising in the polls. “He’s less slanderous and a bit more sensible,” he said of Trump.Enrique Pumar, a sociology professor and race relations expert at the Catholic University of America, said a moderating effect was already visible – Trump focusing on tax rather than immigration, Rubio rising in the polls. “He’s less slanderous and a bit more sensible,” he said of Trump.
Fraga agreed that the pope had “opened space” for mainstream candidates but predicted they would tread warily and slowly. “It’s a question of: will they take advantage of the space? If they do it will only be after they get nominated because the risks are too great to do it before.”Fraga agreed that the pope had “opened space” for mainstream candidates but predicted they would tread warily and slowly. “It’s a question of: will they take advantage of the space? If they do it will only be after they get nominated because the risks are too great to do it before.”
Some Latino immigration activists doubt there will be any Republican change of heart and conclude that they themselves must create the Francis effect. “What we hope is that individual voters will take his teachings close to heart,” said George Escobar, director of services at Casa, a Maryland-based immigrant rights group. “It’s incumbent on individuals to make those corrections. Ultimately we are the ones who control the polls.”Some Latino immigration activists doubt there will be any Republican change of heart and conclude that they themselves must create the Francis effect. “What we hope is that individual voters will take his teachings close to heart,” said George Escobar, director of services at Casa, a Maryland-based immigrant rights group. “It’s incumbent on individuals to make those corrections. Ultimately we are the ones who control the polls.”
Felipe Benítez, a spokesman for Mi Familia Vota, a non-partisan group which mobilises Latinos to participate in politics, said it had incorporated the pope’s message into campaigns in Arizona, Texas, California, Colorado, Florida and Nevada – the last three of which are swing states in the 2016 presidential race.Felipe Benítez, a spokesman for Mi Familia Vota, a non-partisan group which mobilises Latinos to participate in politics, said it had incorporated the pope’s message into campaigns in Arizona, Texas, California, Colorado, Florida and Nevada – the last three of which are swing states in the 2016 presidential race.
“The pope’s words are now part of the narrative. For our community they meant a lot and invigorated the movement. It’s up to us to honour them and make them actionable.”“The pope’s words are now part of the narrative. For our community they meant a lot and invigorated the movement. It’s up to us to honour them and make them actionable.”
Latino activists have been on a rollercoaster: they helped re-elect Obama in 2012 and reaped the reward in an executive action in 2014 which shielded about 4 million people from deportation, but that victory was stymied when Republicans blocked the executive action through the courts. Trump’s call for mass deportations and a giant wall followed.Latino activists have been on a rollercoaster: they helped re-elect Obama in 2012 and reaped the reward in an executive action in 2014 which shielded about 4 million people from deportation, but that victory was stymied when Republicans blocked the executive action through the courts. Trump’s call for mass deportations and a giant wall followed.
That set off alarms. Since Trump’s announcement in June, Mi Familia Vota has recorded a 66% hike in average monthly voter registration – a surge likely to grow in the wake of the pope’s visit.That set off alarms. Since Trump’s announcement in June, Mi Familia Vota has recorded a 66% hike in average monthly voter registration – a surge likely to grow in the wake of the pope’s visit.
Latinos, after all, have just seen the first Latin American pope address a joint session of Congress, and heard him tell huge crowds in Spanish to take pride in their heritage, to never forget where they came from. “He’s united us. We’ll start to see the results in the next couple of months,” said Benítez.Latinos, after all, have just seen the first Latin American pope address a joint session of Congress, and heard him tell huge crowds in Spanish to take pride in their heritage, to never forget where they came from. “He’s united us. We’ll start to see the results in the next couple of months,” said Benítez.
The activist is bracing for a long fight. “The pope’s words will make people think about what they’re saying but the damage has already been done. Trump has moved the other candidates to the far right and it’ll be tough getting them out of there.”The activist is bracing for a long fight. “The pope’s words will make people think about what they’re saying but the damage has already been done. Trump has moved the other candidates to the far right and it’ll be tough getting them out of there.”