'Despite Shrinking Populations, Eastern Europe Resists Accepting Migrants' diff viewer (0/1)

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Despite Shrinking Populations, Eastern Europe Resists Accepting Migrants	Despite Shrinking Populations, Eastern Europe Resists Accepting Migrants
2015-10-02 01:15:36 UTC	2015-10-02 01:50:05 UTC (34 minutes later)
SOFIA, Bulgaria — In Germany, the arrival of an expected one million migrants this year is being sold to sometimes reluctant citizens, in part, as a way to inject more economic vigor into an aging country whose population is expected to decline 8 percent in the next few decades.	SOFIA, Bulgaria — In Germany, the arrival of an expected one million migrants this year is being sold to sometimes reluctant citizens, in part, as a way to inject more economic vigor into an aging country whose population is expected to decline 8 percent in the next few decades.
For the former communist nations of Eastern Europe — where populations are shrinking even faster and economies are struggling — the influx of migrants would seem to be a perfect fit.	For the former communist nations of Eastern Europe — where populations are shrinking even faster and economies are struggling — the influx of migrants would seem to be a perfect fit.
But not if you ask the people here.	But not if you ask the people here.
“No, I would not say there is a great feeling here that we should attract more immigrants,” said Ivailo Kalfin, Bulgaria’s deputy prime minister for demographic and social policies. “The feeling is there are too many immigrants, not too few.”	“No, I would not say there is a great feeling here that we should attract more immigrants,” said Ivailo Kalfin, Bulgaria’s deputy prime minister for demographic and social policies. “The feeling is there are too many immigrants, not too few.”
Such is the paradox of the migration crisis for Eastern Europe. Even as the region stares at the most dire demographic implosion on the Continent, it has proved the most resistant to accepting migrants.	Such is the paradox of the migration crisis for Eastern Europe. Even as the region stares at the most dire demographic implosion on the Continent, it has proved the most resistant to accepting migrants.
And while the perceived threat of immigration resonates deeply here, the persistent combination of failing economies and corrupt governments has not made the countries particularly attractive to migrants in any case.	And while the perceived threat of immigration resonates deeply here, the persistent combination of failing economies and corrupt governments has not made the countries particularly attractive to migrants in any case.
In fact, Bulgaria is proving unattractive even to Bulgarians, who, like the migrants, are making their way to more prosperous parts of Europe in droves.	In fact, Bulgaria is proving unattractive even to Bulgarians, who, like the migrants, are making their way to more prosperous parts of Europe in droves.
In the most recent World Population Prospects from the United Nations, the 10 countries in the world expected to lose the most population between now and 2050, per capita, are all in Central and Eastern Europe, with Bulgaria in first place.	In the most recent World Population Prospects from the United Nations, the 10 countries in the world expected to lose the most population between now and 2050, per capita, are all in Central and Eastern Europe, with Bulgaria in first place.
Yet anti-migrant sentiment runs strong here and elsewhere in a region worried that the wave of people pouring into Europe from the Middle East, Afghanistan and elsewhere will overwhelm their fragile economies and weaken their national cultures.	Yet anti-migrant sentiment runs strong here and elsewhere in a region worried that the wave of people pouring into Europe from the Middle East, Afghanistan and elsewhere will overwhelm their fragile economies and weaken their national cultures.
“It is a rational and pragmatic argument that these countries could make use of migrants,” said Aleksander Smolar, president of the Stefan Batory Foundation in Warsaw, which promotes democracy and civic issues.	“It is a rational and pragmatic argument that these countries could make use of migrants,” said Aleksander Smolar, president of the Stefan Batory Foundation in Warsaw, which promotes democracy and civic issues.
“But we need to remember that they, unlike countries in the West, never had to develop big immigration policies,” he explained. “Countries in Eastern and Central Europe have never been countries of immigration, but rather emigration.”	“But we need to remember that they, unlike countries in the West, never had to develop big immigration policies,” he explained. “Countries in Eastern and Central Europe have never been countries of immigration, but rather emigration.”
That remains so, especially for countries like Bulgaria that have been accepted into the European Union, allowing citizens to travel more freely.	That remains so, especially for countries like Bulgaria that have been accepted into the European Union, allowing citizens to travel more freely.
“You would be hard pressed to meet someone in the region who does not have at least one member of their immediate or extended family living abroad,” said Sarah Garding, a researcher at the University of Oxford who has focused on migration in Eastern Europe. “And the smaller your country is, the greater weight each of these departures carries.”	“You would be hard pressed to meet someone in the region who does not have at least one member of their immediate or extended family living abroad,” said Sarah Garding, a researcher at the University of Oxford who has focused on migration in Eastern Europe. “And the smaller your country is, the greater weight each of these departures carries.”
That this population plunge is coming during a massive influx of illegal immigrants is not lost on regional officials.	That this population plunge is coming during a massive influx of illegal immigrants is not lost on regional officials.
“I would be very happy to accept refugees in my city,” said Robert Biedron, the mayor of Slupsk, a city in northern Poland, and a rare pro-immigration voice in the region. “The practical reason is that my city is depopulated. I have fewer and fewer citizens, like many medium-sized cities in Poland.”	“I would be very happy to accept refugees in my city,” said Robert Biedron, the mayor of Slupsk, a city in northern Poland, and a rare pro-immigration voice in the region. “The practical reason is that my city is depopulated. I have fewer and fewer citizens, like many medium-sized cities in Poland.”
Yet officials point out that several factors prevent the migrants from solving the demographic crisis and explain the region’s resistance to welcoming them.	Yet officials point out that several factors prevent the migrants from solving the demographic crisis and explain the region’s resistance to welcoming them.
For one thing, political leaders argue that it makes no sense to force migrants who wish to live in Germany or other more prosperous nations to settle in the financially hobbled East.	For one thing, political leaders argue that it makes no sense to force migrants who wish to live in Germany or other more prosperous nations to settle in the financially hobbled East.
They will simply pick up and move to where they wanted to be in the first place, said Robert Fico, Slovakia’s prime minister.	They will simply pick up and move to where they wanted to be in the first place, said Robert Fico, Slovakia’s prime minister.
At the same time, residents of the Eastern nations have proved unwilling to welcome migrants, especially those of a different faith, to a region whose historical memory includes battles to throw off Muslim occupation.	At the same time, residents of the Eastern nations have proved unwilling to welcome migrants, especially those of a different faith, to a region whose historical memory includes battles to throw off Muslim occupation.
Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, speaks of his country providing a bulwark between Christian Europe and the Islamic world.	Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, speaks of his country providing a bulwark between Christian Europe and the Islamic world.
Finally, as many migrants themselves point out, it is not merely safety and financial prospects that they seek, but life in a more open and tolerant society.	Finally, as many migrants themselves point out, it is not merely safety and financial prospects that they seek, but life in a more open and tolerant society.
So the same forces that are driving thousands of Eastern Europeans to emigrate to Western Europe are pushing the new refugees in the same direction.	So the same forces that are driving thousands of Eastern Europeans to emigrate to Western Europe are pushing the new refugees in the same direction.
“I can tell you why people leave,” said Evgenia Peeva, 29, who returned to Bulgaria after graduating from Harvard to start Teach for Bulgaria, an NGO modeled on Teach for America. “People in general are just frustrated with the political situation. They cannot rely on the judicial system. Their leaders lack any sort of political vision. They have been waiting since 1989, and they are tired of waiting for this change to happen.”	“I can tell you why people leave,” said Evgenia Peeva, 29, who returned to Bulgaria after graduating from Harvard to start Teach for Bulgaria, an NGO modeled on Teach for America. “People in general are just frustrated with the political situation. They cannot rely on the judicial system. Their leaders lack any sort of political vision. They have been waiting since 1989, and they are tired of waiting for this change to happen.”
In 1990, just after the fall of Communism, Bulgaria had about nine million citizens, making it slightly bigger than Sweden and Austria. Today, the official population is 7.2 million, much smaller than Sweden or Austria, and projections are that it will lose 12 percent of its population by 2030 and 28 percent by 2050.	In 1990, just after the fall of Communism, Bulgaria had about nine million citizens, making it slightly bigger than Sweden and Austria. Today, the official population is 7.2 million, much smaller than Sweden or Austria, and projections are that it will lose 12 percent of its population by 2030 and 28 percent by 2050.
Romania is not far behind, expected to lose 22 percent of its population by 2050, followed by Ukraine (down 22 percent), Moldova (20 percent), Bosnia and Herzegovina (19 percent), Latvia (19 percent), Lithuania (17 percent), Serbia (17 percent), Croatia (16 percent) and Hungary (16 percent).	Romania is not far behind, expected to lose 22 percent of its population by 2050, followed by Ukraine (down 22 percent), Moldova (20 percent), Bosnia and Herzegovina (19 percent), Latvia (19 percent), Lithuania (17 percent), Serbia (17 percent), Croatia (16 percent) and Hungary (16 percent).
Milen Galabov, 39, a graphic designer who transplanted his young family from Sofia to Amsterdam this summer, said it was more than money that moved them. Both he and his wife, a lawyer, earned good salaries, by Sofia standards, and they had a comfortable life.	Milen Galabov, 39, a graphic designer who transplanted his young family from Sofia to Amsterdam this summer, said it was more than money that moved them. Both he and his wife, a lawyer, earned good salaries, by Sofia standards, and they had a comfortable life.
“But we realized that the new dresses and the new cars are not everything we need,” he said. “Now we will have a chance to live in a normal country with a normal life.”	“But we realized that the new dresses and the new cars are not everything we need,” he said. “Now we will have a chance to live in a normal country with a normal life.”
Magdalena Kostova is director of Bulgaria’s Demographic and Social Statistics Directorate. Between the two most recent censuses — in 2001 and 2011 — Bulgaria’s population fell by 564,000, she said. About two-thirds was because of the very low birthrate, but the remainder was ~~pureemigration.~~	Magdalena Kostova is director of Bulgaria’s Demographic and Social Statistics Directorate. Between the two most recent censuses — in 2001 and 2011 — Bulgaria’s population fell by 564,000, she said. About two-thirds was because of the very low birthrate, but the remainder was pure emigration.
“These days, close to 80 percent of the medical class leaves after graduation,” said Ruslan Stefanov, an analyst for the Center for the Study of Democracy in Sofia. “People feel that life is too unpredictable here.”	“These days, close to 80 percent of the medical class leaves after graduation,” said Ruslan Stefanov, an analyst for the Center for the Study of Democracy in Sofia. “People feel that life is too unpredictable here.”
The absence of so many young people may provide a void that immigrants could fill, but it also provides a warning sign to the migrants that they may need to follow the Bulgarian émigrés to the west to live in the kind of open societies they desire.	The absence of so many young people may provide a void that immigrants could fill, but it also provides a warning sign to the migrants that they may need to follow the Bulgarian émigrés to the west to live in the kind of open societies they desire.
“Bulgaria is my homeland — I want to live here,” said Stefaniya Boneva, 25, a medical student in Germany, while sitting in an outdoor coffee shop near the center of Sofia. “But something would have to change very drastically for me to come back here. It is probably just an idealistic dream.”	“Bulgaria is my homeland — I want to live here,” said Stefaniya Boneva, 25, a medical student in Germany, while sitting in an outdoor coffee shop near the center of Sofia. “But something would have to change very drastically for me to come back here. It is probably just an idealistic dream.”
And the families left behind — many of whom remain dependent on money from relatives abroad — are not terribly eager to trade in their vanished sons and daughters for an unknown community of immigrant strangers.	And the families left behind — many of whom remain dependent on money from relatives abroad — are not terribly eager to trade in their vanished sons and daughters for an unknown community of immigrant strangers.
What is needed, Mr. Smolar said, is more calm discussion and less political opportunism over what is clearly an explosive issue in the region.	What is needed, Mr. Smolar said, is more calm discussion and less political opportunism over what is clearly an explosive issue in the region.
“The idea of suddenly meeting the ‘other,’ someone from a different culture, a different religion, a different physical appearance, is for people here quite naturally a cause for fear, maybe even panic,” Mr. Smolar said.	“The idea of suddenly meeting the ‘other,’ someone from a different culture, a different religion, a different physical appearance, is for people here quite naturally a cause for fear, maybe even panic,” Mr. Smolar said.
“Normally,” he added, “such a change should be preceded by laborious national discussions that would allow people to get used to the fact that they are going to have ethnic minorities living alongside them.”	“Normally,” he added, “such a change should be preceded by laborious national discussions that would allow people to get used to the fact that they are going to have ethnic minorities living alongside them.”
But instead of such national discussions, there has been a wave of political opportunism, he said.	But instead of such national discussions, there has been a wave of political opportunism, he said.
“Many cynical politicians prefer to play on people’s fears to their own advantage,” Mr. Smolar said. “Unfortunately, scaremongering does help boost the ratings.”	“Many cynical politicians prefer to play on people’s fears to their own advantage,” Mr. Smolar said. “Unfortunately, scaremongering does help boost the ratings.”
Stoyan Dodnikov was 6 when his mother moved to Chalkida, a small city north of Athens, where she cleans houses and sends the bulk of her earnings back home to the small village of Patalenitsa. He is 13 now.	Stoyan Dodnikov was 6 when his mother moved to Chalkida, a small city north of Athens, where she cleans houses and sends the bulk of her earnings back home to the small village of Patalenitsa. He is 13 now.
He lives with his grandparents in a compound off a dusty square near the village center. “We are getting by,” said his grandmother, Petrunka Yankova, 52.	He lives with his grandparents in a compound off a dusty square near the village center. “We are getting by,” said his grandmother, Petrunka Yankova, 52.
Sitting in the shade of a grape arbor in his backyard, thick with vegetable plants and alive with the hum of insects, Stoyan outlined his future. Unlike many, he hopes to stay in Bulgaria.	Sitting in the shade of a grape arbor in his backyard, thick with vegetable plants and alive with the hum of insects, Stoyan outlined his future. Unlike many, he hopes to stay in Bulgaria.
“My plan is to start my own business,” he said. “I have many ideas and I think I can make them work.”	“My plan is to start my own business,” he said. “I have many ideas and I think I can make them work.”
For Bulgaria to prosper, he said, it needs more business innovation. Only then can it become a country where mothers do not need to leave their sons behind to seek work in a distant country.	For Bulgaria to prosper, he said, it needs more business innovation. Only then can it become a country where mothers do not need to leave their sons behind to seek work in a distant country.
“To tell the real truth,” he said, “that is my aim.”	“To tell the real truth,” he said, “that is my aim.”