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Europe needs Recep Tayyip ​​Erdoğan – but he will play hard-to-get Europe needs Recep Tayyip ​​Erdoğan – but he will play hard-to-get
(35 minutes later)
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s combative president, has been viewed almost as a pariah figure in recent years by European politicians worried about his perceived authoritarian tendencies, regressive brand of neo-Islamist politics and refusals to play to Washington’s and Nato’s tune.Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s combative president, has been viewed almost as a pariah figure in recent years by European politicians worried about his perceived authoritarian tendencies, regressive brand of neo-Islamist politics and refusals to play to Washington’s and Nato’s tune.
But as he headed for Brussels on Sunday for two days of talks, his first visit since he abruptly cancelled a 2011 trip, EU leaders are painfully aware the tables have turned.But as he headed for Brussels on Sunday for two days of talks, his first visit since he abruptly cancelled a 2011 trip, EU leaders are painfully aware the tables have turned.
Facing an unprecedented migrant influx, a rising threat from Islamic State terrorists, and unchecked Russian military intervention in Syria, Europe needs Erdoğan like never before.Facing an unprecedented migrant influx, a rising threat from Islamic State terrorists, and unchecked Russian military intervention in Syria, Europe needs Erdoğan like never before.
This turnabout was foreshadowed last December when David Cameron sought Turkey’s help in stemming the cross-border flow of British and other foreign jihadis to Isis in Syria and Iraq. During a visit to Ankara, Cameron said the two countries were working “hand in glove” to defeat Isis. Almost a year later, this claim remains open to question.This turnabout was foreshadowed last December when David Cameron sought Turkey’s help in stemming the cross-border flow of British and other foreign jihadis to Isis in Syria and Iraq. During a visit to Ankara, Cameron said the two countries were working “hand in glove” to defeat Isis. Almost a year later, this claim remains open to question.
Cameron’s demarche occurred before the Mediterranean migrant crisis eclipsed other bilateral concerns. Turkey has more than 1.8 million Syrian refugees on its soil. Many of them, driven to desperate measures after four years in limbo, attempted the journey to Europe in the summer, via Greece and the Balkans.Cameron’s demarche occurred before the Mediterranean migrant crisis eclipsed other bilateral concerns. Turkey has more than 1.8 million Syrian refugees on its soil. Many of them, driven to desperate measures after four years in limbo, attempted the journey to Europe in the summer, via Greece and the Balkans.
Having failed to agree a coherent overall policy to deal with the influx, divided EU leaders appealed to Turkey for help last month. The proffered quid pro quo was €1bn in aid to improve conditions in the camps in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. This panicky response has had little impact so far – and notably failed to impress Ankara. Having failed to agree a coherent overall policy to deal with the influx, divided EU leaders appealed to Turkey for help last month. The proffered quid pro quo was €1bn in aid to improve conditions in the camps in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. This response has had little impact so far and failed to impress the government in Ankara.
“Turkey cannot be the solution for the European Union’s inability to act collectively to address the enormity of this humanitarian tragedy and develop policies to share the burden,” said Sinan Ülgen, a former Turkish diplomat.“Turkey cannot be the solution for the European Union’s inability to act collectively to address the enormity of this humanitarian tragedy and develop policies to share the burden,” said Sinan Ülgen, a former Turkish diplomat.
“Nobody paid attention when a bloody war hit Syria, but they started to call it a serious problem when the Syrians came to the doors of Europe. This is not Turkey’s problem, it is Europe’s problem,” said Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the opposition Republican People’s party.“Nobody paid attention when a bloody war hit Syria, but they started to call it a serious problem when the Syrians came to the doors of Europe. This is not Turkey’s problem, it is Europe’s problem,” said Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the opposition Republican People’s party.
Whether Erdoğan is prepared to help on migration may depend on what Europe is prepared to give him in return. He is a fierce critic of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad. Ankara shares western alarm at Russia’s bombing campaign in Syria, which is targeting Turkish-backed anti-Assad groups as well as Isis.Whether Erdoğan is prepared to help on migration may depend on what Europe is prepared to give him in return. He is a fierce critic of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad. Ankara shares western alarm at Russia’s bombing campaign in Syria, which is targeting Turkish-backed anti-Assad groups as well as Isis.
Speaking at the weekend, Erdoğan said he did not understand why Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, whom he has courted as a foil to the US, was getting involved.Speaking at the weekend, Erdoğan said he did not understand why Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, whom he has courted as a foil to the US, was getting involved.
“Russia has no border with Syria, but I have a 911km-long border. I am disturbed with what is happening now,” he told al-Jazeera.“Russia has no border with Syria, but I have a 911km-long border. I am disturbed with what is happening now,” he told al-Jazeera.
Erdoğan has repeatedly proposed creating safe havens protected by no-fly zones in northern Syria, in part to stem the flow of refugees. The US and Britain have blocked the idea so far. But with Russian planes attacking at random and reportedly killing civilians at the weekend, locally agreed ceasefire areas in northern Syria are reportedly breaking down.Erdoğan has repeatedly proposed creating safe havens protected by no-fly zones in northern Syria, in part to stem the flow of refugees. The US and Britain have blocked the idea so far. But with Russian planes attacking at random and reportedly killing civilians at the weekend, locally agreed ceasefire areas in northern Syria are reportedly breaking down.
The result may be further dislocation of civilians, spilling into Turkey, and a worsening of the crisis. From Erdoğan’s point of view, this makes the no-fly zone proposal even more pressing.The result may be further dislocation of civilians, spilling into Turkey, and a worsening of the crisis. From Erdoğan’s point of view, this makes the no-fly zone proposal even more pressing.
Support came last week from John Kasich, the Republican presidential hopeful, who also proposed sending US ground troops into Syria to push back pro-Assad and Russian forces as well as Isis.Support came last week from John Kasich, the Republican presidential hopeful, who also proposed sending US ground troops into Syria to push back pro-Assad and Russian forces as well as Isis.
Erdoğan’s Brussels shopping list does not stop there. He will want a halt to open EU criticism of domestic political developments in Turkey, including his widening crackdown on press freedom and independent journalism. A growing number of journalists have been accused of insulting the president – an offence that carries a five-year jail term.Erdoğan’s Brussels shopping list does not stop there. He will want a halt to open EU criticism of domestic political developments in Turkey, including his widening crackdown on press freedom and independent journalism. A growing number of journalists have been accused of insulting the president – an offence that carries a five-year jail term.
He will also seek de facto European acquiescence in his blatant attempt to revive open conflict, political and military, with Turkey’s Kurdish minority ahead of elections due on 1 November.He will also seek de facto European acquiescence in his blatant attempt to revive open conflict, political and military, with Turkey’s Kurdish minority ahead of elections due on 1 November.
The polls mark Erdoğan’s second attempt this year to win a parliamentary mandate to create a dominant, Putin-style executive presidency. He plainly hopes to scare voters into supporting his power-grab. The polls mark Erdoğan’s second attempt this year to win a parliamentary mandate to create a dominant, Putin-style executive presidency. He plainly hopes to scare voters into supporting his power grab.
In a telling indication of how the balance of advantage has shifted, the one issue Erdoğan may not spend much time pursuing is Turkey’s long-standing, long-stalled EU membership application. At one time this was considered a matter of major importance and urgency. Ankara was furious at French and German obstructionism. In a telling indication of how the balance of advantage has shifted, the one issue Erdoğan may not spend much time pursuing is Turkey’s long-standing, long-stalled EU membership application. At one time this was considered a matter of major importance and urgency. Ankara was furious at French and German obstruction.
How times have changed. Playing his nationalist, neo-Islamist fiddle, Erdoğan has scorned the EU, claiming an increasingly economically powerful Turkey does not need to join an “Islamophobic Christian club”. Contemplating an EU riven by currency crises, humiliated by Russia in Ukraine and Syria, and bitterly divided over migration policy, he now has even less cause to seek favour.How times have changed. Playing his nationalist, neo-Islamist fiddle, Erdoğan has scorned the EU, claiming an increasingly economically powerful Turkey does not need to join an “Islamophobic Christian club”. Contemplating an EU riven by currency crises, humiliated by Russia in Ukraine and Syria, and bitterly divided over migration policy, he now has even less cause to seek favour.
Instead, the Brussels visit by Turkey’s abrasive president may be the occasion for some harsh home truths about waning European power and influence.Instead, the Brussels visit by Turkey’s abrasive president may be the occasion for some harsh home truths about waning European power and influence.