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Mr. Putin’s Motives in Syria Mr. Putin’s Motives in Syria
(about 3 hours later)
Why exactly President Vladimir Putin is sending “volunteer” ground forces into Syria is not entirely clear. It may be to protect the Russian base near Latakia from which Russia has begun flying bombing missions against Syrian rebel groups, or it may be because Russia’s Syrian ally, President Bashar al-Assad, is in such danger of falling that Russian ground troops will actually enter the fray against the innumerable insurgent groups fighting him. Why President Vladimir Putin is sending “volunteer” ground forces into Syria is not entirely clear. It may be to protect the Russian base near Latakia from which Russia has begun flying bombing missions against Syrian rebel groups, or it may be because Russia’s Syrian ally, President Bashar al-Assad, is in such danger of falling that Russian ground troops will actually enter the fray against the innumerable insurgent groups fighting him.
What is clear is that these “volunteers” are there about as voluntarily as were the Russian soldiers ordered into Crimea or eastern Ukraine. Russians might want to ask why young Russians are being sent to face mortal danger in the Middle East in service of Mr. Putin’s very dangerous gamble.What is clear is that these “volunteers” are there about as voluntarily as were the Russian soldiers ordered into Crimea or eastern Ukraine. Russians might want to ask why young Russians are being sent to face mortal danger in the Middle East in service of Mr. Putin’s very dangerous gamble.
Propping up a flailing ally is only one of Mr. Putin’s probable motives. He no doubt wants to flex his muscles (again) before a Russian public increasingly feeling the pain of a mismanaged economy and to deflect attention from the stalemate in Ukraine. But he may not be strutting for long.Propping up a flailing ally is only one of Mr. Putin’s probable motives. He no doubt wants to flex his muscles (again) before a Russian public increasingly feeling the pain of a mismanaged economy and to deflect attention from the stalemate in Ukraine. But he may not be strutting for long.
Syria is the proverbial quagmire. If the United States and its allies have failed either to create a viable opposition front or to eradicate the Islamic State, it is not only because of the limited effort but also because the tangle of insurgent groups, with their ever-shifting alliances, offer only an array of bad choices.Syria is the proverbial quagmire. If the United States and its allies have failed either to create a viable opposition front or to eradicate the Islamic State, it is not only because of the limited effort but also because the tangle of insurgent groups, with their ever-shifting alliances, offer only an array of bad choices.
By sending warplanes to bomb rebels, including those the United States has tried to shape into some semblance of an opposition, and now by sending in Russian soldiers, Mr. Putin stands to make matters far more complex. There is no assurance that his move would bring an end to the fighting any sooner. By sending warplanes to bomb rebels, including those the United States has tried to shape into some semblance of an opposition, and now by sending in Russian soldiers, Mr. Putin stands to make matters far more complex. There is no assurance that his move will bring an end to the fighting any sooner.
If Mr. Putin had ever been eager for peace, he could have exerted pressure on the Assad government before it stoked the civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands of Syrians, driven millions from their homes, and destroyed vast stretches of the country. If Mr. Putin had ever been eager for peace, he could have exerted pressure on the Assad government before it stoked the civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands of Syrians, driven millions from their homes and destroyed vast stretches of the country.
Instead, he supported Mr. Assad and his brutal reprisals against civilians and the opposition, which opened up space for extremists to operate and expand, turning this war into a threat to the entire region. Even now, Mr. Putin could help by coordinating his actions with the West, but he seems entranced by the lure of making a grandstand play.Instead, he supported Mr. Assad and his brutal reprisals against civilians and the opposition, which opened up space for extremists to operate and expand, turning this war into a threat to the entire region. Even now, Mr. Putin could help by coordinating his actions with the West, but he seems entranced by the lure of making a grandstand play.
It may not be too late for Mr. Putin to reconsider. The United States and its allies are in need of help and might well be open to cooperating with Russia on finding a combination of military and diplomatic measures that could curb the Islamic State and, more important, impose cease-fires that would give civilians some respite from the violence. That, ultimately, should be the priority for both the West and for Russia. And it would certainly be a better way for Mr. Putin to satisfy his need for respect and a role in the Middle East. It may not be too late for Mr. Putin to reconsider. The United States and its allies are in need of help and might well be open to cooperating with Russia on finding a combination of military and diplomatic measures that could curb the Islamic State and, more important, impose cease-fires that would give civilians some respite from the violence. That, ultimately, should be the priority for both the West and Russia. And it would certainly be a better way for Mr. Putin to satisfy his need for respect and a role in the Middle East.