Eight more votes. That's all we need for Australia to win marriage equality
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Version 0 of 1. Marriage equality has been through the wringer recently, with a six-hour Coalition party room meeting, plans for a public vote, and now a new prime minister. Many supporters are unsure about the way forward, vaguely hoping Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten might carry reform across the line, and fearing the possibility of a plebiscite. Related: Growing up gay in the Australian bush: 'We do not flaunt it, it's who we are' I believe marriage equality can be achieved relatively soon, but only with a well-thought out plan, good organising, the participation of grassroots supporters and a lot of heart. The key to achieving reform remains getting the numbers in both houses through a cross party free vote. Currently, we have a slim majority in the Senate but are about eight votes short in the House of Representatives. Remember, the Coalition’s stated policy is that MPs will not be bound to vote against marriage equality after the election. That means if we have the numbers in a cross party free vote it doesn’t matter who wins the election or what their majority is, marriage equality will pass. If the Coalition wins and a plebiscite is on the cards, having the numbers in parliament is also critical. It will much harder for the government to justify spending over $150m on a public vote if the numbers are there to quickly, easily and inexpensively pass legislation through parliament. If there is a plebiscite, having majority support for reform across both major parties, as well as from the leaders of both parties, will add great weight to the “yes” case. Not surprisingly, opponents of marriage equality are quickly retreating from the plebiscite option because we no longer have a prime minister who would have crafted a public vote to their advantage. If, as seems likely, Australians vote “yes”, the results are not binding and parliament would still be required to enact the result. Obviously, this will happen quicker and with the least amount of pain if there is already a majority of MPs in favour. However you look at it, majority support on a cross-party free vote remains the key to winning marriage equality, and the key to winning this support is the election. Elections have always been when incumbent and hopeful MPs are most likely to change their minds on marriage equality and where support in the community has increased most dramatically. At elections over the past decade, marriage equality has won support from the first inner-city Labor MPs, then suburban Labor MPs, and then, most recently, inner-city Liberals. This election offers us the opportunity to encourage suburban and regional Liberals and Nationals (and remaining right wing Labor MPs) to support reform and to finally achieve a majority in parliament. What makes this more likely is that marriage equality is no longer the divisive, left/right issue it once was, and concerns voters more than ever. For all these reasons, Australian Marriage Equality is focusing our attention on winning key votes for marriage equality in the lead up to the next election. In particular, our focus will be on seats where the sitting member is currently undecided and can be persuaded to change his or her mind. It is a completely achievable goal to get the eight more votes we need for a parliamentary majority from these 25 to 30 seats. We know it’s possible because over the last two years AME has established about a dozen electorate-based campaigns, successfully winning over undecided MPs in several seats. We will focus on helping to re-elect supporters of marriage equality, regardless of their political party We will also focus on helping to re-elect supporters of marriage equality who are under threat, regardless of their political party, because we cannot afford to lose any seats. To achieve this, Australian Marriage Equality has developed a new structure and recruited the team necessary to successfully campaign on a national scale. Key to this has been the employment of Erin McCallum, a highly-respected political strategist and grass roots organiser, as our new national campaign director. Erin previously worked as the campaigns chief of staff and then political director with GetUp!, and has worked on national election efforts in the US, UK and Australia. She was recruited for a senior position with a US presidential campaign before agreeing to bring her considerable experience and knowledge to bear on achieving marriage equality in Australia. AME has also commissioned an intensive round of research so we can develop the most effective campaign possible. All this change means AME is not only ready to win the election for marriage equality. With so much grass roots infrastructure already in place, we will also be ready to win a plebiscite if one is held. In the coming weeks we will unveil greater details of our election campaign: which seats we will campaign in, our teams in those seats and our messages to voters in those seats. We will also launch a new campaign to ensure Australians under 25 – a key demographic that is highly-motivated in support of marriage - are enrolled to vote and engaged with the campaign. Related: What the 'religious freedom' argument against marriage equality really means | Rodney Croome This is our plan for winning marriage equality but we can’t do it without supporters old and new. Our very first task will be will be making contact with supporters to see what it is that motivates them and how they want to be engaged on the ground. In Australia, leadership on marriage equality has always come from below, from everyday Australians who want fairness for their families, friends and for their nation. The next phase of the campaign will be no different. Each of us will have a crucial role to play in winning this long awaited reform. |