Will Trudeaumania sweep Canada’s Liberals into power – again?
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Version 0 of 1. In the longest official federal election period in the nation’s history, it now appears Liberal leader Justin Trudeau may well be the nation’s next prime minister, with polls showing him establishing a commanding lead over his rivals, and the trend continuing to grow. Related: Canada's Liberal party within reach of election win going into final stretch It’s a stunning development in an election that could be described as an epic cliffhanger. Many, if not most, Canadians are eager for a change from prime minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative government, but with two worthy and eager rivals – the New Democratic party’s Thomas Mulcair and the Liberal party’s Justin Trudeau – where those change-hungry voters will place their bet has been difficult to decipher. When Harper announced the campaign in early August, it was met with immediate cynicism. The extended campaign time (79 days as opposed to what had been the standard 37 days) gave the Conservatives an immediate advantage, given that their financial war chest is considerably larger than that of the Liberals or NDP. The Conservative strategy seemed a sound one: let the two opposition parties battle it out while the ruling party would float as much advertising as possible, handily winning over another majority. But the ruling party has faced considerable obstacles, including an astonishingly embarrassing ongoing scandal involving appointees to the unelected Senate (the Canadian version of the House of Lords) and a flagging economy. Polls have indicated many Canadians want change. Ironically enough, one of the main reasons Canadians may have shifted their allegiances to the Liberal party leader is precisely because of the most famous negative ad campaign of the election, paid for and put into heavy rotation by the Conservatives. The ad, first rolled out in May by the Conservatives, has a group of people looking over an application by Justin Trudeau for the PM’s job. Perhaps most striking for its laughably bad acting, the ad has people concluding Trudeau is a lightweight who is “just not ready” for the job, with one concluding “nice hair, though”. The ad attempts to suggest that not only is Trudeau simply not ready but voting for him is tantamount to a risky foray into untested waters, given the turbulent global economy and nagging threats of terror (the Cons have been playing both up at every turn). But a funny thing happened on the way through this fear-mongering: by just about any standards, Trudeau has run an excellent campaign. In late August he unveiled a campaign promise to invest billions of dollars in Canada’s roads, bridges, public transit and other public facilities. He suggested these were all necessary investments, which would help to stimulate the moribund economy, and went one step further, suggesting if he formed government, he would be open to deficit spending – moderate deficits, he cautioned, which would be over by 2019. In the strange triangulation that sees three parties in Canada all vying for dominance with an electorate spread over five unique regions and two languages, the move was worth the gamble. It allowed Trudeau to appear to campaign to the left of Mulcair, who had repeatedly promised he would not be willing to run deficits. The ad had an unintended effect: it lowered expectations so far it made Trudeau’s campaign seem surprisingly surefooted By early September, polls indicated the just-not-ready ad campaign may have proven effective, with respondents suggesting that perhaps Trudeau was indeed inexperienced. But as the campaign proceeded, gaffes his opponents were dreaming of didn’t transpire. Trudeau has appeared cool and confident, his debate performances solid, and the advertising campaign that suggested he was not prime minister material has had an unintended effect: it lowered expectations so far that it made Trudeau’s campaign seem surprisingly fresh and sure-footed. Trudeau’s rallies are growing in size, evoking memories of the euphoric “Trudeaumania” that swept his father’s ascent to the political stage in the late 1960s. To be sure, Trudeau faces very real challenges in the final days of the campaign (Canadians go to the polls on Monday). Mulcair and the NDP continue to have strong appeal in Quebec, and the vote-splitting between the moderate Liberals and left-of-centre NDP could still benefit the Conservatives. And if he wins a minority in parliament – a very likely outcome – Trudeau will have to forge deals with the NDP, who have been slamming the Liberals as a party that often campaigns to the left but governs to the right once in power. If the polling trends are any indication, Canada could be headed for a second prime minister Trudeau. And they will have a Conservative attack ad to thank for it. |