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| Myanmar and 8 Ethnic Groups Sign Cease-Fire, but Doubts Remain | Myanmar and 8 Ethnic Groups Sign Cease-Fire, but Doubts Remain |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| YANGON, Myanmar — Myanmar’s government signed a cease-fire agreement with eight armed ethnic groups on Thursday, in what the country’s leaders described as a major step toward peace in the vast borderland regions that have been restive since the earliest days of the country’s independence. | YANGON, Myanmar — Myanmar’s government signed a cease-fire agreement with eight armed ethnic groups on Thursday, in what the country’s leaders described as a major step toward peace in the vast borderland regions that have been restive since the earliest days of the country’s independence. |
| But the deal, signed in the capital, Naypyidaw, leaves many questions unanswered, including how the balance of power between the central government and the ethnic regions will be determined. It does not require the ethnic groups to disarm. | But the deal, signed in the capital, Naypyidaw, leaves many questions unanswered, including how the balance of power between the central government and the ethnic regions will be determined. It does not require the ethnic groups to disarm. |
| Perhaps most significant, the deal principally covers ethnic groups along the border with Thailand, but not the long stretch of territory bordering China. The ethnic groups with the two largest militias and tens of thousands of soldiers — the Kachin and the Wa — did not sign the agreement. Fighting in the Kachin region occurred as recently as Wednesday, an officer with the Kachin armed forces said. | Perhaps most significant, the deal principally covers ethnic groups along the border with Thailand, but not the long stretch of territory bordering China. The ethnic groups with the two largest militias and tens of thousands of soldiers — the Kachin and the Wa — did not sign the agreement. Fighting in the Kachin region occurred as recently as Wednesday, an officer with the Kachin armed forces said. |
| “The door is open to other groups that have yet to sign” the agreement, President Thein Sein said at the ceremony in Naypyidaw. He called the agreement “the only way to build peace.” | “The door is open to other groups that have yet to sign” the agreement, President Thein Sein said at the ceremony in Naypyidaw. He called the agreement “the only way to build peace.” |
| The deal is formally called the Nationwide Cease-fire Agreement, but analysts say that is a misnomer. Even as the government pursued the cease-fire, it has continued to battle ethnic groups including the Kachin, the Kokang and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, all of which are based along the border with China. | The deal is formally called the Nationwide Cease-fire Agreement, but analysts say that is a misnomer. Even as the government pursued the cease-fire, it has continued to battle ethnic groups including the Kachin, the Kokang and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, all of which are based along the border with China. |
| “If there are large areas of the country that are not included, it’s not really a nationwide cease-fire,” said Tom Kramer, a researcher at the Transnational Institute, an organization based in the Netherlands that examines ethnic issues in Myanmar. “The words about a nationwide cease-fire and talk of peace ring very hollow in some of these areas.” | |
| Negotiators acknowledged the deal’s shortcomings, but they said it provided a framework that other groups could join in the future. | Negotiators acknowledged the deal’s shortcomings, but they said it provided a framework that other groups could join in the future. |
| “Better a half-signed deal than no deal at all,” Aung Naing Oo, an official at the Myanmar Peace Center, a government-led organization that has brokered talks with ethnic groups, wrote in an article this month. He added, “The government will go ahead and cement a deal with whichever groups come on board.” | “Better a half-signed deal than no deal at all,” Aung Naing Oo, an official at the Myanmar Peace Center, a government-led organization that has brokered talks with ethnic groups, wrote in an article this month. He added, “The government will go ahead and cement a deal with whichever groups come on board.” |
| An officer of the Kachin Independence Army, Col. Zau Taung, said on Thursday that there had been fighting in the states of Kachin and Shan this week, including a skirmish in a Kachin township on Wednesday afternoon. “We learned the government army has increased troop mobilization around our headquarters with artillery after we decided not to participate in the cease-fire signing,” the colonel said. | An officer of the Kachin Independence Army, Col. Zau Taung, said on Thursday that there had been fighting in the states of Kachin and Shan this week, including a skirmish in a Kachin township on Wednesday afternoon. “We learned the government army has increased troop mobilization around our headquarters with artillery after we decided not to participate in the cease-fire signing,” the colonel said. |
| With nationwide elections only weeks away, the government has sought to portray the peace deal as a key achievement of Mr. Thein Sein’s administration. | With nationwide elections only weeks away, the government has sought to portray the peace deal as a key achievement of Mr. Thein Sein’s administration. |
| This week, the state news media broadcast the arrival of the leaders of armed ethnic groups, who hugged army officers, their former enemies. The most significant signatory to the agreement appeared to be the Karen National Union, which has been fighting the Myanmar government for more than 60 years. | This week, the state news media broadcast the arrival of the leaders of armed ethnic groups, who hugged army officers, their former enemies. The most significant signatory to the agreement appeared to be the Karen National Union, which has been fighting the Myanmar government for more than 60 years. |
| Mutu Say Paw, the chairman of the Karen National Union, called the deal “a new page in history.” But he urged the military to use negotiations, not force, to bring other ethnic groups into the agreement. | Mutu Say Paw, the chairman of the Karen National Union, called the deal “a new page in history.” But he urged the military to use negotiations, not force, to bring other ethnic groups into the agreement. |
| “Before reaching a political solution, we hope all will avoid using force,” he said. | “Before reaching a political solution, we hope all will avoid using force,” he said. |
| Groups that refused to sign the deal gave varying reasons. U Mong Gwang, a liaison officer for the Kachin Independence Organization, the Kachin Independence Army’s political wing, said it had not signed because it was hoping for an “all-inclusive cease-fire agreement with all ethnic groups.” | Groups that refused to sign the deal gave varying reasons. U Mong Gwang, a liaison officer for the Kachin Independence Organization, the Kachin Independence Army’s political wing, said it had not signed because it was hoping for an “all-inclusive cease-fire agreement with all ethnic groups.” |
| “We cannot betray our ethnic allies,” he said. | “We cannot betray our ethnic allies,” he said. |
| The United Wa State Army, the largest ethnic army in Myanmar, which has a long history of ties to drug-trafficking syndicates, said it did not need to join the agreement because it had already agreed to a cease-fire with the government in 1989. | The United Wa State Army, the largest ethnic army in Myanmar, which has a long history of ties to drug-trafficking syndicates, said it did not need to join the agreement because it had already agreed to a cease-fire with the government in 1989. |
| “They recognized the Wa area as a special administrative region,” said U Aung Myint, a Wa leader, speaking from Panghsang, where the group is based. “Why do we need to sign again?” | “They recognized the Wa area as a special administrative region,” said U Aung Myint, a Wa leader, speaking from Panghsang, where the group is based. “Why do we need to sign again?” |
| More than three years of negotiations failed to produce an agreement on a broad political vision for Myanmar’s ethnic regions. Instead, a vaguely defined political dialogue is to begin within 90 days of the signing of the cease-fire. | More than three years of negotiations failed to produce an agreement on a broad political vision for Myanmar’s ethnic regions. Instead, a vaguely defined political dialogue is to begin within 90 days of the signing of the cease-fire. |
| Ethnic groups are also supposed to agree to details of how the cease-fire will be monitored after the signing — an arrangement that one expert on ethnic insurgencies in the region, Bertil Lintner, called a “joke.” | Ethnic groups are also supposed to agree to details of how the cease-fire will be monitored after the signing — an arrangement that one expert on ethnic insurgencies in the region, Bertil Lintner, called a “joke.” |
| “Crucial details about how and by whom on-the-ground monitoring will be conducted will be discussed and negotiated after rather than before the signing,” Mr. Lintner said. “That is not going to work.” | “Crucial details about how and by whom on-the-ground monitoring will be conducted will be discussed and negotiated after rather than before the signing,” Mr. Lintner said. “That is not going to work.” |
| Also undecided is the timing for disarmament by the ethnic groups, which Myanmar’s military has said will affect how long it retains its dominant role in the country’s politics. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the Burmese armed forces, said in a recent interview that the military could withdraw from politics only once ethnic groups “come into the legal fold, give up their arms, and participate peacefully in building a democratic nation.” | Also undecided is the timing for disarmament by the ethnic groups, which Myanmar’s military has said will affect how long it retains its dominant role in the country’s politics. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the Burmese armed forces, said in a recent interview that the military could withdraw from politics only once ethnic groups “come into the legal fold, give up their arms, and participate peacefully in building a democratic nation.” |
| Notably absent from the ceremony on Thursday was Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace laureate and leader of the country’s democracy movement, who declined an invitation to attend. | Notably absent from the ceremony on Thursday was Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace laureate and leader of the country’s democracy movement, who declined an invitation to attend. |
| She was quoted last month as expressing skepticism about the cease-fire, saying it had to be “real and true.” | She was quoted last month as expressing skepticism about the cease-fire, saying it had to be “real and true.” |
| “The most important thing is that it’s a long-lasting cease-fire deal,” she said. “No fighting should break out again on the next day after signing of the agreement.” | “The most important thing is that it’s a long-lasting cease-fire deal,” she said. “No fighting should break out again on the next day after signing of the agreement.” |