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| Atmosphere at SNP conference sober as party ponders independence | Atmosphere at SNP conference sober as party ponders independence |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| SNP veterans from the days when the party was seen as a fringe force with just a handful of MPs are pinching themselves as they marvel at the crowds who have flocked to their conference in Aberdeen. | |
| The nationalists’ success in capturing 56 of Scotland’s 59 seats at the general election in May provides the perfect excuse for displays of triumphalism from the conference podium in the giant hall of the Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Centre. | The nationalists’ success in capturing 56 of Scotland’s 59 seats at the general election in May provides the perfect excuse for displays of triumphalism from the conference podium in the giant hall of the Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Centre. |
| But the atmosphere has been sober and professional as the party leadership delivers an uncomfortable message to diehard members who hope that the SNP’s historic parliamentary electoral success heralds a new surge in support for independence. | But the atmosphere has been sober and professional as the party leadership delivers an uncomfortable message to diehard members who hope that the SNP’s historic parliamentary electoral success heralds a new surge in support for independence. |
| In friendly, but unmistakeable terms, the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, and her deputy, John Swinney, have told the party that they are in no rush to hold a second referendum. The voters of Scotland, they say, opted to remain in the UK by a decisive 10-point margin last year, and there are no signs yet of a major shift in mood. | |
| Swinney epitomised this cautious approach in his conference speech on Friday when he looked forward to the Holyrood elections next May. “The question then will not be one of independence or the union,” he said. “That will be decided on another day, at another time.” | Swinney epitomised this cautious approach in his conference speech on Friday when he looked forward to the Holyrood elections next May. “The question then will not be one of independence or the union,” he said. “That will be decided on another day, at another time.” |
| In the packed coffee and burger bars of the conference centre senior SNP figures have started to flesh out the party’s game plan for the second referendum, as they make clear they have abandoned any thought of a “neverendum” – the process whereby repeated polls would be held until Scotland votes Yes. Senior figures say a second referendum is make or break and they will not entertain a third chance. | In the packed coffee and burger bars of the conference centre senior SNP figures have started to flesh out the party’s game plan for the second referendum, as they make clear they have abandoned any thought of a “neverendum” – the process whereby repeated polls would be held until Scotland votes Yes. Senior figures say a second referendum is make or break and they will not entertain a third chance. |
| Angus Robertson, the leader of the SNP MPs at Westminster, performed the last rites on a “neverendum” as he cited the example of Quebec. Independence was killed off for a generation when voters rejected independence in a second referendum in 1995 even though this was by a tiny margin – 50.58% - 49.42%. | Angus Robertson, the leader of the SNP MPs at Westminster, performed the last rites on a “neverendum” as he cited the example of Quebec. Independence was killed off for a generation when voters rejected independence in a second referendum in 1995 even though this was by a tiny margin – 50.58% - 49.42%. |
| Robertson, a former BBC diplomatic correspondent, who visited the province in 2011, told the Guardian: “One lesson I learnt from Quebec was don’t lose. People explained that having lost the second referendum so marginally caused tremendous difficulty for the sovereignty movement in Quebec ever since.” | Robertson, a former BBC diplomatic correspondent, who visited the province in 2011, told the Guardian: “One lesson I learnt from Quebec was don’t lose. People explained that having lost the second referendum so marginally caused tremendous difficulty for the sovereignty movement in Quebec ever since.” |
| Sturgeon told the conference that some key events, notably a UK-wide vote to leave the EU and a Scottish vote to reman in the EU, would create an “unstoppable” momentum towards a second referendum. But even then the SNP would tread with care as it makes two key calculations in the game plan for a second referendum. | Sturgeon told the conference that some key events, notably a UK-wide vote to leave the EU and a Scottish vote to reman in the EU, would create an “unstoppable” momentum towards a second referendum. But even then the SNP would tread with care as it makes two key calculations in the game plan for a second referendum. |
| The party musttake its time to be absolutely sure that it can win a referendum. It must offer reassurance to No voters on two fronts – that a vote for independence will not be a dangerous leap into the dark, posing financial risks, and that a Yes vote would not mark a rupture with the rest of the UK. | The party musttake its time to be absolutely sure that it can win a referendum. It must offer reassurance to No voters on two fronts – that a vote for independence will not be a dangerous leap into the dark, posing financial risks, and that a Yes vote would not mark a rupture with the rest of the UK. |
| “It is still a surprise to some people that we are not proposing tectonic separation and floating off geographically past Greenland,” Robertson says. “We are in favour of remaining on the island of Britain and living on an island without borders, either physical or mental.” | “It is still a surprise to some people that we are not proposing tectonic separation and floating off geographically past Greenland,” Robertson says. “We are in favour of remaining on the island of Britain and living on an island without borders, either physical or mental.” |
| For such a highly disciplined party with a central command structure that imposes strict control on its communications, the thinking on how to prepare the ground for a second referendum is taking place in a remarkably free way. The historic divisions between “fundies” – fundamentalists who are impatient for a referendum – and gradualists prepared to bide their time, are now playing out between the generations. | For such a highly disciplined party with a central command structure that imposes strict control on its communications, the thinking on how to prepare the ground for a second referendum is taking place in a remarkably free way. The historic divisions between “fundies” – fundamentalists who are impatient for a referendum – and gradualists prepared to bide their time, are now playing out between the generations. |
| Related: Second Scottish referendum inevitable, says Alex Salmond | Related: Second Scottish referendum inevitable, says Alex Salmond |
| Alex Salmond, the former first minister who said during the referendum campaign that a poll could only be held once a generation, has indicated he would be happy to see another referendum at some point during the next Scottish parliament. But younger SNP figures say the party should take its time and say they are prepared to wait, in contrast to the likes of Salmond who will be 61 next month. | Alex Salmond, the former first minister who said during the referendum campaign that a poll could only be held once a generation, has indicated he would be happy to see another referendum at some point during the next Scottish parliament. But younger SNP figures say the party should take its time and say they are prepared to wait, in contrast to the likes of Salmond who will be 61 next month. |
| One minister even dared to define what would constitute “strong and consistent” evidence of support for referendum – the term proposed by Sturgeon and Swinney. This would be clear evidence in opinion polls for about a year that support for independence stood at least 60% – well above the 44.7% secured by the Yes camp last year. | One minister even dared to define what would constitute “strong and consistent” evidence of support for referendum – the term proposed by Sturgeon and Swinney. This would be clear evidence in opinion polls for about a year that support for independence stood at least 60% – well above the 44.7% secured by the Yes camp last year. |
| Some members of SNP’s younger generation are so attached to the idea of a long game that there are even suggestions that a period out of office might help the Yes camp act as insurgents. “The younger generation feel no need to rush,” says one figure, who is aware that by the election after next in 2021 the SNP could have to defend a 14 year record in government. They say that waiting until the 2020s or the 2030s may be on the cards. | Some members of SNP’s younger generation are so attached to the idea of a long game that there are even suggestions that a period out of office might help the Yes camp act as insurgents. “The younger generation feel no need to rush,” says one figure, who is aware that by the election after next in 2021 the SNP could have to defend a 14 year record in government. They say that waiting until the 2020s or the 2030s may be on the cards. |
| The older and younger generations agree that they can only win if they win over No voters by addressing their fears and uncertainties about independence. Top of the list is to offer more credible answers on what currency an independent Scotland would use after the main UK parties rejected the idea of a currency union. | The older and younger generations agree that they can only win if they win over No voters by addressing their fears and uncertainties about independence. Top of the list is to offer more credible answers on what currency an independent Scotland would use after the main UK parties rejected the idea of a currency union. |
| But the SNP also wants to acknowledge the British identity felt by many Scots as it talks of championing a social union. “One area where I think we failed was to explain adequately how Scotland would thrive as part of a social union together with our friends in England, Wales and Ireland, north and south,” Robertson said. | But the SNP also wants to acknowledge the British identity felt by many Scots as it talks of championing a social union. “One area where I think we failed was to explain adequately how Scotland would thrive as part of a social union together with our friends in England, Wales and Ireland, north and south,” Robertson said. |
| “This is something that really matters to a lot of people, especially for those who have a British identity or a British-Scottish identity or a more British than Scottish identity.” | “This is something that really matters to a lot of people, especially for those who have a British identity or a British-Scottish identity or a more British than Scottish identity.” |