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Canadian election: Justin Trudeau on the brink of reviving family tradition
Canadian election: Justin Trudeau's Liberals tipped to win nailbiting poll
(about 2 hours later)
Canada goes to the polls on Monday to decide whether to extend Conservative leader Stephen Harper’s near-decade in power or return the country to its more liberal roots.
Canadians head into a nail-bitingly close election on Monday in which the incumbent Conservative, Stephen Harper, is struggling to hold on to power in the face of a challenge by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party.
Harper is trailing Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, the son of the late prime minister Pierre Trudeau, in the polls.
Harper is seeking a rare fourth term as prime minister, but polls put the Liberals about seven points ahead – and approaching the popularity levels need for a majority in parliament.
“This is going to be a close election,” Trudeau told about 1,000 supporters in Halifax. “We’re on the verge of accomplishing something big.”
If he wins and can form a majority administration, Trudeau, the son of the late former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, would become Canada’s second youngest prime minister.
He may have to form an alliance with the third-placed party, the left-leaning New Democratic party, which is polling at about 22% of votes. The NDP leader, Thomas Mulcair, held events in Toronto on Sunday before travelling to Montreal.
Related: Will Trudeaumania sweep Canada’s Liberals into power – again? | Matthew Hays
Related: Will Trudeaumania sweep Canada’s Liberals into power – again? | Matthew Hays
Pierre Trudeau led Canada for almost all of a 16-year stretch from 1968-84 and is a legendary name in Canadian history. He is responsible for the country’s version of the bill of rights and open door to immigration.
A Trudeau victory could ease Canada’s tensions with the administration of Barack Obama, whose reluctance to approve a major Canada-US pipeline has damaged ties between the two major trading partners. While Trudeau supports the Alberta-to-Texas Keystone XL pipeline, it is not a do-or-die issue for him as it is for Harper, who represents a district in oil-rich Alberta.
Harper has fought to dismantle Pierre Trudeau’s legacy and is seeking a rare fourth term in the hopes of safeguarding his goal of shattering Canada’s reputation as a liberal haven.
Experts say that a Trudeau victory would make a thaw in relations between the two countries more likely, and would help to facilitate action on issues such as climate change.
Harper toured Conservative strongholds on Sunday, with stops in Saskatchewan and British Columbia. On Saturday, in what some observers called a desperate move, he attended a Toronto rally organised in part by the city’s former crack-smoking mayor, Rob Ford.
Harper spent the final weekend of campaigning making his pitch to the Ford Nation, the diehard conservative fans who coalesce around Toronto’s former crack-smoking mayor, Rob Ford, and his family.
Conservatives downplayed the choice of safe territory for Harper’s final campaigning, noting that media carry his messages widely across Canada.
In contrast, Trudeau staged a rally in Harper’s adopted home province of Alberta, traditionally a Conservative stronghold.
“We have a chance to bring real change to Canada and bring an end to the Harper decade,” the challenger said.
Trudeau, 43, has run an optimistic campaign and appears to have overcome relentless attack ads. In the final days of the campaign he visited districts where the Liberals traditionally haven’t won but now have a chance to win. Harper, 56, ran a divisive campaign that played on fears of the Muslim face veil. He visited districts he won in the 2011 election in an attempt to hang onto them.
The Liberals lead the Conservatives by almost 9 percentage points. According to the CTV/Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly tracking poll, the Liberals are at 39.1%, followed by the Conservatives at 30.5%. The New Democrats are at 19.7%. The margin of error for the survey of 800 respondents is 3.7 percentage points.
A minority government in the 338-seat Parliament appears likely no matter which party wins the most seats. That would mean the winning party would have a shaky hold on power and need to rely on another party to pass legislation. Harper has said he will step down as Conservative leader if his party loses.
Related: Pierre Trudeau
Related: Pierre Trudeau
If the Liberals win the most seats they are expected to rely on the New Democrats for support on a bill-by-bill basis. If the Harper Conservatives win the most seats, the Liberals and New Democrats say they will defeat them in a vote in parliament, raising the possibility of a coalition government or arrangement.
About 1,500 supporters gathered to hear Ford’s brother Doug, who replaced Rob Ford in the mayoral election after the latter was diagnosed with a rare form of cancer, introduce Harper. At Ford’s first mention of Trudeau, the room erupted into loud booing and cries of “shame”.
“It’s hard for me to see a path for his survival now,” said Tom Flanagan, Harper’s former campaign manager. “When you play out all the scenarios they all seem to end with a defeat on election night or a very tenuous victory that would not allow Harper to survive very long.”
In Quebec, Harper touted his economic track record and dodged questions about his relationship with the Fords.
If he wins Trudeau, a former teacher, would become the second youngest prime minister in Canada’s history, despite a thin resume.
David Axelrod, who helped mastermind Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign and offered advice to Trudeau’s team, tweeted congratulations to Trudeau’s top advisers for running a great campaign and said: “Hope beats fear.”
