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Canadian Election Underway as Long Campaign Heads to Photo Finish Canada Election Is Unpredictable to the End
(about 9 hours later)
OTTAWA — Despite a campaign that was the longest in modern Canada’s history, if remarkably swift by American standards, no obvious outcome has developed as Canadians vote on Monday. OTTAWA — Canadians faced a wide range of possible outcomes as they voted on Monday at the conclusion of a campaign that could end a decade of power for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party.
Many analysts have said that Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a Conservative who has held power for almost a decade, called the vote on Aug. 2 partly in the hope that the more voters saw of Justin Trudeau during his first term as leader of the Liberal Party, the less they would like him. Early Conservative ads emphasized Mr. Trudeau’s relative political inexperience and concluded with the slogan, “He’s just not ready.” For much of the 78-day race, all three major political parties were in a statistical dead heat, according to various polls. While the Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau, had emerged on top in several polls over the past week, its lead was short of conclusive.
But over the past week, polls have shown Mr. Trudeau and his party steadily increasing their hold on the lead, although not by a sufficient margin for many polling companies to predict a Liberal victory. Canadians only vote for members of Parliament, not the prime minister or parties, making it difficult to translate poll findings. And Mr. Harper won the three previous elections without ever exceeding 40 percent of the popular vote.
Conversely, the New Democratic Party, led by Tom Mulcair, started as the front-runner in polls, only to fall to third during a campaign that, at times, left all three parties in statistical dead heats. That had left analysts offering a range of possible results from Mr. Harper being returned with another minority government, some form of Liberal government or a muddy situation in which there was no clear victor.
But Canadians do not vote for the prime minister, nor for a political party. Instead, they elect 338 members of Parliament. Because national popular-vote numbers do not necessarily transfer directly to parliamentary seats, the fate of the New Democrats is similarly unclear. Regardless of the three major parties’ positions in the opinion surveys, analysts and campaigners in Canada were acutely aware that the comprehensive victory in Britain of David Cameron’s Conservative Party in May had not been forecast by polling firms. Early returns showed a higher-than-anticipated level of support for the Liberals in the Atlantic provinces. The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reported that Liberal candidates were leading or had been declared elected in all but one of the region’s 32 Parliamentary seats.
Regardless of the three major parties’ positions in the polls, campaigners in Canada are acutely aware that the victory in Britain of David Cameron’s Conservative Party in May had not been forecast by polling firms. Whether that would translate into a similar sweep nationally was unclear. The Atlantic provinces have historically favored the Liberals, although rarely to such a great extent. And election laws ban the release of polling information while voting is still underway.
While the Canadian election was initially met with summer vacation indifference, the cliffhanger ending appears to have attracted voter interest. Turnout fell to as low as 58.8 percent in 2008 and was 61.1 percent in the last parliamentary election, in 2011. But the agency that supervises federal elections reported that 71 percent more people voted in advance polls this month than four years ago. In some communities, the surge in interest created lines that persisted for hours. While the Canadian election was initially met with summer-vacation indifference when it was called on Aug 2, the cliffhanger ending appears to have attracted voter interest.
For many Canadians, the election is something of a referendum on Mr. Harper’s approach to government, which, in the view of his critics, has been autocratic and often focused on issues important to core Conservative supporters rather than to a majority of the population. Turnout fell to as low as 58.8 percent in 2008 and was 61.1 percent in the last parliamentary elections, in 2011. But the agency that supervises federal elections reported that 71 percent more people had cast early ballots this month than did four years ago.
The focus of the campaign has fluttered between issues including a scandal over Conservative senators’ expenses; antiterrorism measures Mr. Harper introduced; pensions; the stagnation of the country’s economy, caused by depressed oil prices; the government’s handling of refugees; the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact; and Mr. Harper’s attempts to ban the wearing of face veils known as niqabs during citizenship ceremonies. News reports indicated that voters faced unusually long lines at some of the 66,000 polling stations on Monday. A rush of traffic temporarily overwhelmed the website of Elections Canada, the agency responsible for federal votes.
None of the three leaders or their parties missed an opportunity to seize on that rising voter interest over the weekend. For many Canadians, the election was something of a referendum on Mr. Harper’s approach to government, which, in the view of his critics, has been heavy-handed and often focused on issues important to core Conservative supporters rather than to much of the population.
Facing the possibility of losing power, the Conservatives placed ads that were wrapped around the front pages of daily newspapers in large cities owned by the Postmedia Network Canada Corporation. While labeled, in small type, as advertising, the pages included the newspapers’ logos, prices and promotions of unrelated stories inside. The focus of the campaign fluttered among issues, including a scandal over Conservative senators’ expenses; antiterrorism measures Mr. Harper introduced; pensions; the stagnation of the economy, brought about by plunging oil prices; the government’s handling of refugees; the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact; and Mr. Harper’s attempts to ban the wearing of face veils known as niqabs during citizenship ceremonies.
After spending most of the campaign delivering standard election speeches in front of invitation-only crowds, Mr. Harper took a more theatrical approach in the final days before the election. At campaign stops, as Mr. Harper recited his party’s claims of what a Liberal government would cost individual families, a recording of an old-fashioned cash register bell repeatedly pealed through loudspeakers and audience members piled what appeared to be currency on tables. Many analysts have said that Mr. Harper called the election partly in the hope that the more voters saw of Mr. Trudeau during his first term as leader of the Liberals, the less they would like him. Early Conservative ads emphasized Mr. Trudeau’s relative political inexperience and concluded with the slogan, “Just not ready.”
While Mr. Harper, more than many prime ministers, has transformed and tightly controlled the mechanisms of government since first taking power in 2006, he portrayed himself as an outsider on Sunday. If that was the case, it backfired.
“We do not want to go back to the days where the government ran for a handful of Liberal special interest groups and the bureaucracy,” Mr. Harper said in Newmarket, Ontario, a suburb of Toronto. “And the Liberal campaign, when you cut away all the fancy rhetoric, that’s all it is really about.” Although Mr. Trudeau has been prone to occasional verbal slips since assuming his leadership role in 2013, including the use of a vulgar metaphor in response to Mr. Harper’s decision to commit Royal Canadian Air Force fighters to the multinational campaign against the Islamic State, he has grown in stature over the course of the election.
Many of the crowds that gathered to see Mr. Harper in the final days of the campaign were noticeably smaller than those from previous weeks. The prime minister’s spokesman, Kory Teneycke, attributed that to the party asking supporters to join door-to-door campaigns. He proved able at crucial events, like a debate on foreign policy, where even some Liberals feared that he might stumble. Late in the campaign, the Liberals flipped the Conservative slogan to “Ready” in its ads.
On Saturday night, the Conservative campaign adopted another unorthodox approach, sending Mr. Harper to a rally organized by Rob Ford, the former Toronto mayor known for using crack cocaine and public drunkenness, and Doug Ford, his brother. While Doug Ford introduced Mr. Harper, the prime minister kept his distance from the more notorious of the brothers. Television footage showed party aides appearing to steer Mr. Harper and Rob Ford away from each other, and Mr. Harper shook hands with people in the crowd. In a symbol of the Liberals’ confidence, Mr. Trudeau used part of his final day of campaigning on Sunday to visit Alberta, Mr. Harper’s adopted province and the Conservative Party’s power base. An energy program introduced in 1980 by Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau, Justin Trudeau’s father, had for decades made the Liberal Party almost toxic in the province, which is dominated by the oil and gas industry. Mr. Trudeau’s stops included Calgary, Mr. Harper’s hometown and a place that has not elected a Liberal since 1968.
Mr. Trudeau was also in an unlikely place on Sunday: Alberta, Mr. Harper’s adopted province and the Conservative Party’s traditional power base. An energy program introduced in 1980 by then Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau, Justin Trudeau’s father, had for decades made the Liberal Party an almost toxic substance in the province, which is dominated by the oil and gas industry. The younger Mr. Trudeau’s appearance there in the closing hours of the campaign was a clear sign of the Liberals’ newfound confidence. That victory 47 years ago was part of a wave of Liberal triumphs that became known as Trudeaumania. While the younger Mr. Trudeau has clearly enjoyed a successful campaign, Liberal support does not seem to have matched the euphoric level it found then under his father.
Mr. Trudeau’s stops included Calgary, Mr. Harper’s hometown and a place that has not elected a Liberal since 1968. Several analysts said that drought could be broken this year. The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reported that about 1,000 people attended a Liberal rally in a Calgary banquet hall on Sunday, and that several hundred others, unable to squeeze in, stood outside. As a result, both Mr. Harper and Tom Mulcair, the leader of the New Democratic Party, were far from conceding defeat before Monday.
“I’ve been coming out to Alberta for years with a message that this place is important to me, that this place matters deeply,” Mr. Trudeau said in Edmonton, the capital of the province. “It’s a message that I’m proud to deliver here with a big smile, as a Liberal, as a Trudeau and as a Quebecer.” After spending most of the campaign delivering standard election speeches to invitation-only crowds, Mr. Harper took a more theatrical approach in the final days. At campaign stops, as he recited his party’s claims of what a Liberal government would cost individual families, a recording of an old-fashioned cash register bell repeatedly pealed through loudspeakers and audience members piled what appeared to be currency on tables.
Mr. Mulcair, who has criticized Mr. Trudeau and his party for taking on New Democratic candidates rather than Conservatives, turned his attention on Sunday to attacking the Liberals during one of his final campaign stops in Toronto. Mr. Mulcair, who had insisted that the election should be focused on removing the Conservatives from power, devoted much of the final hours of his campaign to attacking the Liberals.
“What Mr. Trudeau calls ‘real change’ is actually just the same old Liberal Party with the same old insiders pulling the strings and the same old scandals,” Mr. Mulcair said. The ideal for all three parties is winning a majority of the 338 seats in the House of Commons, a feat Mr. Harper only achieved in his third successful campaign.
If the Conservatives emerge with the largest number of seats, he will have the first opportunity to form the next government. Yet Mr. Mulcair and Mr. Trudeau have both said that they will bring down any Conservative minority government at the first opportunity, most likely on the usually ritualistic vote on the government’s legislative agenda when Parliament is recalled.
Whichever of the two other parties has the second-largest number of seats would then form a government, which would be sustained, at least for a period, by the tacit support of the third-place party.
If Mr. Harper emerges with a minority, he could forestall a rapid end to his government by delaying Parliament’s return. Adam Dodek, a law professor at the University of Ottawa, said that Mr. Harper could govern without Parliament until the end of March when government spending authorizations expire.
But, he added, “in any sort of minority situation there will be political pressure to recall Parliament in a relatively timely fashion.”