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The dangers of underestimating rises in student numbers The dangers of underestimating rises in student numbers
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According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), letting English universities recruit as many students as they like will mean 1,000 more home and EU undergraduates in the coming years. Given that 400,000 full-time undergraduates begin their studies each year, that is both imperceptible and implausible.According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), letting English universities recruit as many students as they like will mean 1,000 more home and EU undergraduates in the coming years. Given that 400,000 full-time undergraduates begin their studies each year, that is both imperceptible and implausible.
It is less than one extra student from each school and college with a sixth form. Yet universities are now free to recruit as many students as they like from the other 27 EU states as well as the four parts of the UK.It is less than one extra student from each school and college with a sixth form. Yet universities are now free to recruit as many students as they like from the other 27 EU states as well as the four parts of the UK.
The OBR is ignoring historical trends. Student numbers have risen since the second world war. Yet many groups are still under-represented on campus. So there is room for growth.The OBR is ignoring historical trends. Student numbers have risen since the second world war. Yet many groups are still under-represented on campus. So there is room for growth.
The OBR is also ignoring experience abroad. Australia has a higher education system that is very similar to ours. When student number controls were removed there in 2012, Australians were shocked to find enrolments increased by over 5% a year. That’s 20 times higher than the OBR is forecasting.The OBR is also ignoring experience abroad. Australia has a higher education system that is very similar to ours. When student number controls were removed there in 2012, Australians were shocked to find enrolments increased by over 5% a year. That’s 20 times higher than the OBR is forecasting.
All this matters because the government uses the OBR’s forecasts to decide how much to borrow. As the Australian precedent shows, when you underestimate the number of new student places other education spending gets cut in due course.All this matters because the government uses the OBR’s forecasts to decide how much to borrow. As the Australian precedent shows, when you underestimate the number of new student places other education spending gets cut in due course.
For the government and universities to plan ahead with confidence, the OBR must revisit its predictions or provide an explanation for its pessimism.Nick HillmanDirector, Higher Education Policy Institute, OxfordFor the government and universities to plan ahead with confidence, the OBR must revisit its predictions or provide an explanation for its pessimism.Nick HillmanDirector, Higher Education Policy Institute, Oxford
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