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Haste for migrant deal shows Merkel under strain | Haste for migrant deal shows Merkel under strain |
(about 21 hours later) | |
In politics you can sometimes gauge the level of panic and fear by the speed with which previously held principles are set aside. | In politics you can sometimes gauge the level of panic and fear by the speed with which previously held principles are set aside. |
So with the migrant crisis. | So with the migrant crisis. |
Some open borders have been suspended, governments are contemplating talking to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, long denounced as a brutal dictator, and a deal is being hastily concluded with Turkey, widely held to be an increasingly authoritarian country. | |
And then what is being debated in Germany - containment camps on its borders and a police union chief urging Germany to build a fence along its border with Austria - are all indicators of the political tension gripping Berlin. | And then what is being debated in Germany - containment camps on its borders and a police union chief urging Germany to build a fence along its border with Austria - are all indicators of the political tension gripping Berlin. |
Angela Merkel has called her decision to open Germany's borders to refugees a "historic challenge" - but she is no longer in charge of events. | Angela Merkel has called her decision to open Germany's borders to refugees a "historic challenge" - but she is no longer in charge of events. |
Her increasingly restive party is muttering she is "without a plan". | Her increasingly restive party is muttering she is "without a plan". |
So the overture to Turkey - it is born out of the failure of other policies. | So the overture to Turkey - it is born out of the failure of other policies. |
Germany had put great store by burden-sharing, by getting other countries to accept quotas. | Germany had put great store by burden-sharing, by getting other countries to accept quotas. |
It was muscled through a meeting of EU interior ministers against the wishes of several countries. | It was muscled through a meeting of EU interior ministers against the wishes of several countries. |
But only a handful of refugees have been relocated. Many others are refusing to leave Germany. | But only a handful of refugees have been relocated. Many others are refusing to leave Germany. |
It is the case that many of those seeking asylum in Germany are from Kosovo and Albania. | It is the case that many of those seeking asylum in Germany are from Kosovo and Albania. |
Both countries are considered safe and the government in Berlin wants people returned there as quickly as possible. | Both countries are considered safe and the government in Berlin wants people returned there as quickly as possible. |
It did not take long for the migrants to get medical certificates which prevent them being deported. | It did not take long for the migrants to get medical certificates which prevent them being deported. |
So Turkey came to be seen as the key to managing the crisis. | So Turkey came to be seen as the key to managing the crisis. |
The EU wants Turkey to slow the numbers crossing the Aegean. | The EU wants Turkey to slow the numbers crossing the Aegean. |
It also wants Turkey to take back any migrants who are refused asylum and entry into the EU. | It also wants Turkey to take back any migrants who are refused asylum and entry into the EU. |
Key Turkish election | Key Turkish election |
Even though Turkey is only a couple of weeks away from a sensitive election, Angela Merkel has hurried to Ankara to meet the president and prime minister. | |
The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, was clear: "an agreement with Turkey makes sense only if it contains the flows of refugees". | |
The Turks are in no hurry to conclude a deal. | The Turks are in no hurry to conclude a deal. |
They understand events have handed them powerful cards. | They understand events have handed them powerful cards. |
They also have a sense of grievance. | They also have a sense of grievance. |
They have hosted two million Syrian refugees and feel that "the EU was not a partner". | They have hosted two million Syrian refugees and feel that "the EU was not a partner". |
"Unfortunately, Turkey was left alone by the international community," said Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. | |
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: "We've spent $8bn until now. How much did the West give?" | |
The answer was a few hundred million dollars. | The answer was a few hundred million dollars. |
So the Turkish government wants funding - perhaps 3bn euros (£2.2bn; $3.4bn) or more. | |
It wants a lifting of visa restrictions inside the open borders of the Schengen area. | It wants a lifting of visa restrictions inside the open borders of the Schengen area. |
It wants to see its application to join the EU "fast-tracked". | It wants to see its application to join the EU "fast-tracked". |
EU accession | EU accession |
The EU has indicated that it is prepared to support opening Chapter 17 of the accession process which deals with economic and monetary affairs. | The EU has indicated that it is prepared to support opening Chapter 17 of the accession process which deals with economic and monetary affairs. |
Turkey was accepted as a formal candidate to join the EU in 1999. | Turkey was accepted as a formal candidate to join the EU in 1999. |
It was a slow process. Not all of Europe's leaders wanted Turkey in the union. | It was a slow process. Not all of Europe's leaders wanted Turkey in the union. |
Former French President Nicholas Sarkozy said: "The EU is primarily for the European continent. To my knowledge, our Turkish friends - a great power, a great nation - are mainly in Asia Minor." | |
Only recently the German chancellor said: "I still have hesitations over Turkey's full membership." | |
The hesitations were not just about the impact of having such a large country join the union. | |
Read more: | Read more: |
Can deeds match words?: The challenges ahead for the EU and Turkey | Can deeds match words?: The challenges ahead for the EU and Turkey |
The pull of Europe: Five migrant stories | The pull of Europe: Five migrant stories |
Merkel under pressure: Chancellor's migrant policy faces criticism at home | Merkel under pressure: Chancellor's migrant policy faces criticism at home |
Focus on Turkey: Why the EU views Syria's northern neighbour as key | Focus on Turkey: Why the EU views Syria's northern neighbour as key |
Crisis in graphics: Migration numbers explained | Crisis in graphics: Migration numbers explained |
There were increasing concerns about the authoritarian leadership of Erdogan, the leader of the AKP, an Islamist party. | |
The media is not free. Journalists are frequently under pressure of arrest. Some reporters have been jailed. | The media is not free. Journalists are frequently under pressure of arrest. Some reporters have been jailed. |
Papers and TV networks have been restricted in reporting the investigation into the recent Ankara bombings. | Papers and TV networks have been restricted in reporting the investigation into the recent Ankara bombings. |
The courts are not always impartial and the rights of the Kurdish minority are under threat. | The courts are not always impartial and the rights of the Kurdish minority are under threat. |
Human rights | Human rights |
Many members of the European Parliament believe their concerns about basic human rights have not been addressed and are now being set aside. | Many members of the European Parliament believe their concerns about basic human rights have not been addressed and are now being set aside. |
The fact that Angela Merkel was prepared to shake the hand of the Turkish president in the midst of a controversial election campaign is a sign of Europe's desperation. | |
Earlier in the year Mr Erdogan's party had lost its majority after 13 years in power. | Earlier in the year Mr Erdogan's party had lost its majority after 13 years in power. |
Attempts at forming a coalition failed and the president has called fresh elections. | |
His opponents accuse him of using a bomb attack to launch raids against the Kurds and so widen political divisions. | His opponents accuse him of using a bomb attack to launch raids against the Kurds and so widen political divisions. |
Breaking point | Breaking point |
In just five weeks from the beginning of September, Germany accepted some 409,000 arrivals. | |
The states and local councils are at breaking point and Angela Merkel is facing fierce criticism from within her own party. | The states and local councils are at breaking point and Angela Merkel is facing fierce criticism from within her own party. |
To relieve that pressure back home she has turned to Turkey but at a cost. | To relieve that pressure back home she has turned to Turkey but at a cost. |
The publication of the EU's annual progress report on Turkey's EU membership, which almost certainly contains criticism of the Turkish leadership, has now suddenly been delayed - probably until after the Turkish election. | The publication of the EU's annual progress report on Turkey's EU membership, which almost certainly contains criticism of the Turkish leadership, has now suddenly been delayed - probably until after the Turkish election. |
Compromises unimaginable just weeks ago are now being embraced. | Compromises unimaginable just weeks ago are now being embraced. |
Berlin is hoping that the onset of winter will slow the arrival of refugees for several months. | Berlin is hoping that the onset of winter will slow the arrival of refugees for several months. |
It is a race against time. The German government needs a breathing space. | It is a race against time. The German government needs a breathing space. |
Angela Merkel says it is "the most difficult task I've experienced in my Chancellorship". | Angela Merkel says it is "the most difficult task I've experienced in my Chancellorship". |
It will, without doubt, define her legacy. | It will, without doubt, define her legacy. |
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