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UK retail sales boosted by falling prices and Rugby World Cup UK retail sales boosted by falling prices and Rugby World Cup
(about 4 hours later)
Falling store prices and Rugby World Cup promotions helped boost retail sales in September at the fastest monthly rate since December 2013, according to official figures. Falling shop prices and Rugby World Cup promotions last month helped boost retail sales at the fastest rate for almost two years, according to official figures.
Related: Bank of England governor under fire after Brexit intervention - business liveRelated: Bank of England governor under fire after Brexit intervention - business live
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have increased by 1.9% compared with August. Year-on-year sales registered a 6.5% increase. Strong wages growth and the warm autumn weather were also credited with persuading shoppers to buy 1.9% more goods in September than the previous month and 6.5% more than at this time last year, said the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The ONS head of retail sales statistics, Kate Davies, said: “Falling in-store prices and promotions around the Rugby World Cup are likely to be the main factors why the quantity bought in the retail sector increased in September at the fastest monthly rate seen since December 2013. The retail sector is continuing to grow with September seeing the 29th consecutive month of year-on-year increases.” Analysts were divided over how to interpret the bumper figures. Some argued they were a sign of resurgent consumer confidence, but others cautioned that slowing economic growth would soon hold back spending.
Related: UK retail sales: all that glitters is not gold Ian Gilmartin, head of retail and wholesale at Barclays, said a spending splurge in the week around Black Friday, especially on consumer electronics, and a strong Christmas were on the horizon.
Ian Gilmartin, head of retail and wholesale at Barclays, said: “September’s ONS retail statistics show that it was a really impressive month for retailers, accelerating August’s strong numbers. Hosting the Rugby World Cup provided a timely boost to sales and helped the industry set a solid platform for the all-important Christmas period. “September’s ONS retail statistics show that it was a really impressive month for retailers, accelerating August’s strong numbers. Hosting the Rugby World Cup provided a timely boost to sales and helped the industry set a solid platform for the all-important Christmas period.
“Retailers are now readying themselves for Black Friday and finalising their preparations for Christmas, and it’s clear from my conversations with clients that there is a growing optimism in the industry, with retailers increasingly hopeful that higher levels of disposable income resulting from recent drops in food and fuel prices will lead to a positive outcome in the season ahead.”“Retailers are now readying themselves for Black Friday and finalising their preparations for Christmas, and it’s clear from my conversations with clients that there is a growing optimism in the industry, with retailers increasingly hopeful that higher levels of disposable income resulting from recent drops in food and fuel prices will lead to a positive outcome in the season ahead.”
James Knightley, UK economist at ING Financial Markets said that with employment and real wage growth rising strongly, the housing market looking strong and consumer confidence still at high levels, there was a growing likelihood of the Bank of England raising interest rates early in the new year.
But Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said much of the last year’s growth in sales was based on heavy discounting that was becoming unsustainable.
“The strong growth in sales volumes has largely reflected sharp and unsustainable falls in goods prices. Indeed, retail sales [prices] fell 3.7% year-over-year in September, the biggest decline since records began in 1987,” he said.
Related: UK retail sales: all that glitters is not gold
Tombs also said a 2.3% jump in food and drink sales, the biggest rise since April 2014, was helped by sales associated with the Rugby World Cup, making it another temporary factor that could prove even shorter lived after England’s early exit from the tournament.
A surge in car mileage was another factor that could prove temporary, he said. Car drivers added almost 12% to their total mileage in September, adding to the consumption of fuel on garage forecourts.
Consumer spending has proved an essential ingredient in Britain’s recovery over recent months as both the manufacturing sector and construction industry slow.
The slowdown in China and the higher value of sterling have hit exports and in recent weeks, and forced steel firms to make huge layoffs.
Bank of England governor Mark Carney said in August that the decision on whether to raise rates would be clearer at the end of the year.