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Turkey election: Could bitterly divided nation be only a few steps away from a dictatorship? Turkey election: Could bitterly divided nation be only a few steps away from a dictatorship?
(about 1 hour later)
Turkey goes to the polls on Sunday in a parliamentary election that threatens to increase polarisation in a country that is already deeply divided.Turkey goes to the polls on Sunday in a parliamentary election that threatens to increase polarisation in a country that is already deeply divided.
At stake is the extent to which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has ruled Turkey since 2002, can establish one-party rule and near monopoly of political power. At stake is the extent to which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has ruled Turkey since 2002, can establish one-party rule and near monopoly of political power. 
The election is still in the balance, but inside Turkey the campaign has widened the fault lines between Kurds and Turks, secular and Islamic, Sunni majority and Alevi minority. Abroad, the results may determine the degree to which Turkey becomes further embroiled in the civil war in Syria and Iraq. The election is still in the balance, but inside Turkey the campaign has widened the fault lines between Kurds and Turks, secular and Islamic, Sunni majority and Alevi minority. Abroad, the results may determine the degree to which Turkey becomes further embroiled in the civil war in Syria and Iraq. 
Many people have put decisions on hold until they know the outcome of the election. Ersin Umut Guler, an actor and theatre director, is waiting to see if it will reduce political tensions, allowing him to bring back the body of his brother Aziz to Turkey from northern Syria where he was killed fighting Isis on 21 September when he stepped on a mine. Many people have put decisions on hold until they know the outcome of the election. Ersin Umut Guler, an actor and theatre director, is waiting to see if it will reduce political tensions, allowing him to bring back the body of his brother Aziz to Turkey from northern Syria where he was killed fighting Isis on 21 September when he stepped on a mine. 
The Turkish authorities refused to allow Aziz’s remains to be brought across the Syrian-Turkish border because it denounces the Kurdish opponents of Isis in Syria as “terrorists” linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) against whom it has been fighting a guerrilla war since 1984.  The Turkish authorities refused to allow Aziz’s remains to be brought across the Syrian-Turkish border because it denounces the Kurdish opponents of Isis in Syria as “terrorists” linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) against whom it has been fighting a guerrilla war since 1984.  
“It is like something out of Antigone [who was forbidden to bury the body of her brother killed in battle],” says Mr Guler. “It is an arbitrary decision taken because Turkey’s war with the PKK has started again and they are not allowing any of the bodies back from the Syrian border.”  He points out that Aziz was a Turkish citizen and had gone to fight Isis as a member of a socialist group and was not a member of the PKK. Aziz’s father has gone to Syria and is refusing to return to Turkey until he can bring his son’s body with him. “It is like something out of Antigone [who was forbidden to bury the body of her brother killed in battle],” says Mr Guler. “It is an arbitrary decision taken because Turkey’s war with the PKK has started again and they are not allowing any of the bodies back from the Syrian border.”  He points out that Aziz was a Turkish citizen and had gone to fight Isis as a member of a socialist group and was not a member of the PKK. Aziz’s father has gone to Syria and is refusing to return to Turkey until he can bring his son’s body with him. 
The four-and-a-half-month siege of Kobani and the aftermath of the last general election, on 7 June, have both served to reignite armed conflict between the Turkish state and the Kurdish minority. The four-and-a-half-month siege of Kobani and the aftermath of the last general election, on 7 June, have both served to reignite armed conflict between the Turkish state and the Kurdish minority. 
Ankara has been appalled to see the rise of a de facto Kurdish statelet in northern Syria and is accused by Kurds of favouring the Isis attack on it. Ankara has been appalled to see the rise of a de facto Kurdish statelet in northern Syria and is accused by Kurds of favouring the Isis attack on it. 
This has alienated conservative and religious Turkish Kurds, who had previously voted for the AKP but switched to the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic party (HDP) in the last election. This enabled the party to exceed the 10 per cent of the vote requirement to win representation in parliament and robbed Mr Erdogan and the AKP of their majority for the first time in 13 years.  This has alienated conservative and religious Turkish Kurds, who had previously voted for the AKP but switched to the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic party (HDP) in the last election. This enabled the party to exceed the 10 per cent of the vote requirement to win representation in parliament and robbed Mr Erdogan and the AKP of their majority for the first time in 13 years.  
Relations between the government and the Kurds deteriorated rapidly as Mr Erdogan and AKP leaders repeatedly accused the HDP, which favours a ceasefire, of being a cat’s paw of the PKK. Relations between the government and the Kurds deteriorated rapidly as Mr Erdogan and AKP leaders repeatedly accused the HDP, which favours a ceasefire, of being a cat’s paw of the PKK. 
On 20 July an Isis suicide bomber at Suruc killed 32 young socialists on their way to aid reconstruction at Kobani. After two Turkish policemen were killed in retaliation, the Turkish army and air force resumed attacks on the PKK in south-east Turkey and Iraq. On 20 July an Isis suicide bomber at Suruc killed 32 young socialists on their way to aid reconstruction at Kobani. After two Turkish policemen were killed in retaliation, the Turkish army and air force resumed attacks on the PKK in south-east Turkey and Iraq. 
On 10 October another Isis suicide bombing killed 102 people demonstrating for peace in Ankara in Turkey’s worst terrorist attack. Opposition parties accuse the authorities of not defending them against Isis and have cancelled all pre-election rallies.   On 10 October another Isis suicide bombing killed 102 people demonstrating for peace in Ankara in Turkey’s worst terrorist attack. Opposition parties accuse the authorities of not defending them against Isis and have cancelled all pre-election rallies.   
The election campaign has been extraordinarily violent with demonstrators attacking HDP offices and opposition newspapers. Murat Yetkin, a leading journalist on the liberal and secular daily Hurriyet, recalls how mobs twice attacked the office of his newspaper in September, smashing all the windows. A columnist was later assaulted and had his nose and ribs broken.The election campaign has been extraordinarily violent with demonstrators attacking HDP offices and opposition newspapers. Murat Yetkin, a leading journalist on the liberal and secular daily Hurriyet, recalls how mobs twice attacked the office of his newspaper in September, smashing all the windows. A columnist was later assaulted and had his nose and ribs broken.
Firefighters walk through smoke while fighting a forest fire near the Basque town of Berango, near Bilbao, northern Spain,
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Vatican Gendarme adjusts his cloak as Pope Francis celebrates the holy Mass for the families in St.Peter's Basilica at the Vatican,Vatican Gendarme adjusts his cloak as Pope Francis celebrates the holy Mass for the families in St.Peter's Basilica at the Vatican,
A man walks near a building on fire following a reported air strike by government forces in the rebel-held region of Eastern Ghouta, on the outskirts of the Syrian capital Damascus. Syria's nearly five-year war has left more than 250,000 dead and forced some 12 million people from their homesA man walks near a building on fire following a reported air strike by government forces in the rebel-held region of Eastern Ghouta, on the outskirts of the Syrian capital Damascus. Syria's nearly five-year war has left more than 250,000 dead and forced some 12 million people from their homes
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An ultra-Orthodox Jewish man gestures the v-sign for victory from behind police tape at the site of a reported attack by a Palestinian assailant near Jerusalem's Old City. "Police officers spotted a man who aroused their suspicions and approached him to check," a police spokeswoman said. "The terrorist pulled out a knife and tried to stab the policeman and was quickly killed by police gunfire."An ultra-Orthodox Jewish man gestures the v-sign for victory from behind police tape at the site of a reported attack by a Palestinian assailant near Jerusalem's Old City. "Police officers spotted a man who aroused their suspicions and approached him to check," a police spokeswoman said. "The terrorist pulled out a knife and tried to stab the policeman and was quickly killed by police gunfire."
Children queue to receive food and toys during a distribution by members of the Youth Movement for the Future of Ivory Coast (REJACI) in a poor neighbourhood in the suburb of Cocody, in AbidjanChildren queue to receive food and toys during a distribution by members of the Youth Movement for the Future of Ivory Coast (REJACI) in a poor neighbourhood in the suburb of Cocody, in Abidjan
Maxi yacht Comanche powers through heavy swells outside Sydney's harbour during the 71st Sydney to Hobart Yacht race, Australia's premiere bluewater classic race.Maxi yacht Comanche powers through heavy swells outside Sydney's harbour during the 71st Sydney to Hobart Yacht race, Australia's premiere bluewater classic race.
Fire photographer Tod Sudmeier gets hit with flying embers from strong winds at the Solimar brush fire that started early Saturday morning in Ventura County, California. A wildfire in Southern California burned over 1,000 acres of land, forced the closure of parts of two major highways and led to evacuations on Saturday, fire officials said.Fire photographer Tod Sudmeier gets hit with flying embers from strong winds at the Solimar brush fire that started early Saturday morning in Ventura County, California. A wildfire in Southern California burned over 1,000 acres of land, forced the closure of parts of two major highways and led to evacuations on Saturday, fire officials said.
Novice Buddhist monks react to the camera during the Jangchup Lamrim teachings conducted by the Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama (not pictured) at the Tashi Lhunpo Monastery in Bylakuppe in Karnataka, IndiaNovice Buddhist monks react to the camera during the Jangchup Lamrim teachings conducted by the Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama (not pictured) at the Tashi Lhunpo Monastery in Bylakuppe in Karnataka, India
Pope Francis waves during the "Urbi et Orbi" (to the City and the World) Christmas message from the balcony overlooking St. Peter's Square at the VaticanPope Francis waves during the "Urbi et Orbi" (to the City and the World) Christmas message from the balcony overlooking St. Peter's Square at the Vatican
Winter swimmers (L) look on as a man (R) wearing a Santa Claus hat and beard jumps into a pool carved into thick ice covering the Songhua River, to celebrate the upcoming Christmas, in Harbin, Heilongjiang province, China,Winter swimmers (L) look on as a man (R) wearing a Santa Claus hat and beard jumps into a pool carved into thick ice covering the Songhua River, to celebrate the upcoming Christmas, in Harbin, Heilongjiang province, China,
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Aisha, 15, (L) (who asked to withhold her last name), a Syrian refugee from Raqqa, waits with a fellow refugee while harvesting cannabis in the Bekaa valley, Lebanon. Syrian refugees work to harvest and process spiky-leafed cannabis plants in neighboring Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. Often farmers of cotton and wheat back home in Raqqa province - now the de facto capital of Islamic State - the conflict in Syria drove them to seek safety in a region where Syrian migrant workers used to spend a few months a year before returning home.Aisha, 15, (L) (who asked to withhold her last name), a Syrian refugee from Raqqa, waits with a fellow refugee while harvesting cannabis in the Bekaa valley, Lebanon. Syrian refugees work to harvest and process spiky-leafed cannabis plants in neighboring Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. Often farmers of cotton and wheat back home in Raqqa province - now the de facto capital of Islamic State - the conflict in Syria drove them to seek safety in a region where Syrian migrant workers used to spend a few months a year before returning home.
Students dressed up as Christmas gifts take part in a Christmas parade in Beirut, Lebanon,Students dressed up as Christmas gifts take part in a Christmas parade in Beirut, Lebanon,
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AFP/GettyAFP/Getty
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Left-wing Podemos (We Can) party leader Pablo Iglesias casts his vote in Spain's general election in Madrid, SpainLeft-wing Podemos (We Can) party leader Pablo Iglesias casts his vote in Spain's general election in Madrid, Spain
ReutersReuters
A man prepares decorations ahead of the birthday of Prophet Mohammed in Sidon, south LebanonA man prepares decorations ahead of the birthday of Prophet Mohammed in Sidon, south Lebanon
ReutersReuters
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AFPAFP
A couple carrying a freshly cut Christmas tree at a plantation in Negenborn, GermanyA couple carrying a freshly cut Christmas tree at a plantation in Negenborn, Germany
Paratroopers from the Qatari armed forces take part in Qatar's National Day celebrations in DohaParatroopers from the Qatari armed forces take part in Qatar's National Day celebrations in Doha
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Bangladeshi children attend a rally during the Victory Day celebrations in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Bangladesh marks its 44th Victory Day across the country remembering the country's war heroes. Bangladesh became a free nation on 16 December 1971 after a nine-month bloody war with PakistanBangladeshi children attend a rally during the Victory Day celebrations in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Bangladesh marks its 44th Victory Day across the country remembering the country's war heroes. Bangladesh became a free nation on 16 December 1971 after a nine-month bloody war with Pakistan
Filipino children rest next to damaged houses in the typhoon-hit town of Magallanes, Sorsogon province, southern Manila, Philippines. At least four people were killed and hundreds of thousands were displaced as a powerful typhoon pummelled the Philippines for the second day, officials said. Typhoon Melor also toppled trees and electric posts, totally and partially destroyed houses, as well as rice paddies submerged in waters, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). Thousands of air and sea passengers were stranded in different ports and airports as 64 domestic flights were cancelled while hundreds of ships stopped from sailing due to bad weatherFilipino children rest next to damaged houses in the typhoon-hit town of Magallanes, Sorsogon province, southern Manila, Philippines. At least four people were killed and hundreds of thousands were displaced as a powerful typhoon pummelled the Philippines for the second day, officials said. Typhoon Melor also toppled trees and electric posts, totally and partially destroyed houses, as well as rice paddies submerged in waters, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). Thousands of air and sea passengers were stranded in different ports and airports as 64 domestic flights were cancelled while hundreds of ships stopped from sailing due to bad weather
Soldiers of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) jump as part of their winter training in temperature of negative 26 degrees Celsius at China's border with Russia in Heihe, Heilongjiang province, ChinaSoldiers of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) jump as part of their winter training in temperature of negative 26 degrees Celsius at China's border with Russia in Heihe, Heilongjiang province, China
A villager walks outside her house as Mount Bromo spews volcanic materials into the air, in Probolinggo, East Java, Indonesia. Indonesian authorities have raised the alert level of the volcano to the second highest as its activity increased earlier this month
Labourers pull a pontoon to construct a temporary bridge for the Magh Mela festival on the river Ganges in Allahabad, India. The festival is an annual religious event held during the Hindu month of Magh, when thousands of Hindu devotees take a holy dip in the waters of the Ganges
This week workers were constructing sturdier defences in the forecourt of the building, but there is a sense that all institutions critical of Mr Erdogan are under permanent siege. This week workers were constructing sturdier defences in the forecourt of the building, but there is a sense that all institutions critical of Mr Erdogan are under permanent siege. 
Mr Yetkin says that polarisation in Turkey is at its zenith with a danger that, if Mr Erdogan wins a simple majority of 276 seats in the 550-seat parliament (the AKP currently has 258 seats), then he will establish an authoritarian presidential system. Mr Yetkin says that polarisation in Turkey is at its zenith with a danger that, if Mr Erdogan wins a simple majority of 276 seats in the 550-seat parliament (the AKP currently has 258 seats), then he will establish an authoritarian presidential system. 
Polls show that the four main political parties’ share of the vote has not changed much since the last election in June, with the AKP hovering at just over 40 per cent. This puts it within a few seats of an absolute majority, failing which it might seek a coalition with the more secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) or the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP). Polls show that the four main political parties’ share of the vote has not changed much since the last election in June, with the AKP hovering at just over 40 per cent. This puts it within a few seats of an absolute majority, failing which it might seek a coalition with the more secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) or the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP). 
But Mr Erdogan has never shown any liking for coalitions or for diluting his own power. But Mr Erdogan has never shown any liking for coalitions or for diluting his own power. 
His chances of success may be greater than they look because so many institutions and centres of power, such as the army, judiciary and much of the media, have been tamed and brought under his control.His chances of success may be greater than they look because so many institutions and centres of power, such as the army, judiciary and much of the media, have been tamed and brought under his control.
Only this week in Ankara, police forced their way into the headquarters of the Koza-Ipek Holding company, which owns two newspapers and two television channels, to enforce a court order appointing a panel of trustees. Only this week in Ankara, police forced their way into the headquarters of the Koza-Ipek Holding company, which owns two newspapers and two television channels, to enforce a court order appointing a panel of trustees. 
The AKP has an overwhelming advantage when it comes to campaigning and influencing the electorate. A survey of the state-owned TV channels shows that, over the past 25 days, they have given 30 hours of coverage to the AKP and 29 hours to Mr Erdogan’s activities, while the CHP received five hours, the MHP one hour and 10 minutes, and the HDP 18 minutes.  The AKP has an overwhelming advantage when it comes to campaigning and influencing the electorate. A survey of the state-owned TV channels shows that, over the past 25 days, they have given 30 hours of coverage to the AKP and 29 hours to Mr Erdogan’s activities, while the CHP received five hours, the MHP one hour and 10 minutes, and the HDP 18 minutes.  
Mr Erdogan may also benefit from a sense among many voters that the AKP represents stability, even if it involves a shift towards dictatorship, and all the other alternatives mean economically damaging instability and uncertainty. Mr Erdogan may also benefit from a sense among many voters that the AKP represents stability, even if it involves a shift towards dictatorship, and all the other alternatives mean economically damaging instability and uncertainty. 
The Turkish economy no longer produces the spectacular growth seen up to 2012. Well-educated graduates are finding it difficult to get a job or, when they lose their job, to find a new one. The Turkish economy no longer produces the spectacular growth seen up to 2012. Well-educated graduates are finding it difficult to get a job or, when they lose their job, to find a new one. 
Dilsah Deniz, a woman in her twenties with a degree in international relations, used to work as a manager in a company making weapons, but the sharp decline in the value of the Turkish currency over the past year meant that it could no longer afford to buy raw materials in Europe. Its two factories closed, she lost her job and has been unable to find one since. Dilsah Deniz, a woman in her twenties with a degree in international relations, used to work as a manager in a company making weapons, but the sharp decline in the value of the Turkish currency over the past year meant that it could no longer afford to buy raw materials in Europe. Its two factories closed, she lost her job and has been unable to find one since. 
She says that many companies have stopped interviewing job applicants until they know the outcome of the election. She hopes that greater stability will improve her chances of employment.  She says that many companies have stopped interviewing job applicants until they know the outcome of the election. She hopes that greater stability will improve her chances of employment.  
She may be disappointed whatever the election result. The violence that is convulsing Syria and Iraq is spreading to Turkey, and Isis bomb attacks have poisoned relations between Turks and Kurds. She may be disappointed whatever the election result. The violence that is convulsing Syria and Iraq is spreading to Turkey, and Isis bomb attacks have poisoned relations between Turks and Kurds. 
Worse, Turkey’s engagement in Syria has not stopped the creation of a new Kurdish quasi-state stretching along 250 miles of Turkey’s southern frontier, which is today run by the Syrian branch of the PKK. Worse, Turkey’s engagement in Syria has not stopped the creation of a new Kurdish quasi-state stretching along 250 miles of Turkey’s southern frontier, which is today run by the Syrian branch of the PKK. 
Turkey, which was poised to be a major power in the Middle East in 2012, has now been all but excluded as an influence in much of the region. A further advance along the border by the Syrian Kurds might lead Ankara to consider direct military intervention.  Turkey, which was poised to be a major power in the Middle East in 2012, has now been all but excluded as an influence in much of the region. A further advance along the border by the Syrian Kurds might lead Ankara to consider direct military intervention.  
The result of the election on Sunday is unpredictable, but it has already unleashed or exacerbated powerful divisive forces. Mr Erdogan may want to bring these under control after the election, but he will find it difficult to do so.The result of the election on Sunday is unpredictable, but it has already unleashed or exacerbated powerful divisive forces. Mr Erdogan may want to bring these under control after the election, but he will find it difficult to do so.