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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/29/turnbulls-unstoppable-charm-cant-be-beaten-only-bypassed
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| Turnbull's unstoppable charm can't be beaten – only bypassed | Turnbull's unstoppable charm can't be beaten – only bypassed |
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| There’s a massive gulf between how many politicians, campaigners and journalists perceive the rough and tumble of politics, and the reality of how the issues and debates are digested by the “punters”. Focus groups are a much derided campaigning tool that have been accused of creating a bland, poll driven style of politics, but whatever their faults they are useful in helping understand how little ordinary Australians care about ins and outs of politics. | There’s a massive gulf between how many politicians, campaigners and journalists perceive the rough and tumble of politics, and the reality of how the issues and debates are digested by the “punters”. Focus groups are a much derided campaigning tool that have been accused of creating a bland, poll driven style of politics, but whatever their faults they are useful in helping understand how little ordinary Australians care about ins and outs of politics. |
| Related: The Malcolm Turnbull interview: 'If something isn't working, chuck it out' | Related: The Malcolm Turnbull interview: 'If something isn't working, chuck it out' |
| Having observed many focus group discussions over numerous election campaigns, one thing has clearly stood out – the gap between what political parties are selling, and what voters think is a believable proposition. Seasoned political campaigners can come up with perfectly crafted and well-researched strategies designed to swing votes, but if their message doesn’t ring true with the voters’ understanding of politics they simply won’t get anywhere. | Having observed many focus group discussions over numerous election campaigns, one thing has clearly stood out – the gap between what political parties are selling, and what voters think is a believable proposition. Seasoned political campaigners can come up with perfectly crafted and well-researched strategies designed to swing votes, but if their message doesn’t ring true with the voters’ understanding of politics they simply won’t get anywhere. |
| One stark example of this was during the 2013 federal election when the Greens were campaigning against Labor on the basis of Julia Gillard’s welfare cuts that slashed payments to single mothers. Even though the campaign was based entirely on fact, the research showed it wasn’t cutting through. Labor voters refused to accept that Gillard would do something so callous, and if she did, there must have a good reason. So they were willing to excuse it. | One stark example of this was during the 2013 federal election when the Greens were campaigning against Labor on the basis of Julia Gillard’s welfare cuts that slashed payments to single mothers. Even though the campaign was based entirely on fact, the research showed it wasn’t cutting through. Labor voters refused to accept that Gillard would do something so callous, and if she did, there must have a good reason. So they were willing to excuse it. |
| This kind of situation occurs regularly. While it flummoxes politicians and strategists, it actually makes sense. Ordinary voters have their own perceptions of political parties and leaders that are drawn from a melange of news, anecdotes and gossip they pick up over time – not from a religious following of what individual pieces of legislation eventually work their way through parliament. | This kind of situation occurs regularly. While it flummoxes politicians and strategists, it actually makes sense. Ordinary voters have their own perceptions of political parties and leaders that are drawn from a melange of news, anecdotes and gossip they pick up over time – not from a religious following of what individual pieces of legislation eventually work their way through parliament. |
| This phenomenon is occurring again, but this time the losers are the Labor party and the winner is Malcolm Turnbull, the most popular conservative leader in a decade. | This phenomenon is occurring again, but this time the losers are the Labor party and the winner is Malcolm Turnbull, the most popular conservative leader in a decade. |
| The argument that Turnbull is as ideologically extreme as Tony Abbott has been strongly put, but it’s clear that it just isn’t ringing true with the public. Newspoll puts support for Turnbull at 63% and in two-party preferred terms the Coalition leads Labor by 52% to 48%. So not only has Turnbull made inroads into the Labor and Greens vote, a proportion of Labor voters prefer him over Bill Shorten. | The argument that Turnbull is as ideologically extreme as Tony Abbott has been strongly put, but it’s clear that it just isn’t ringing true with the public. Newspoll puts support for Turnbull at 63% and in two-party preferred terms the Coalition leads Labor by 52% to 48%. So not only has Turnbull made inroads into the Labor and Greens vote, a proportion of Labor voters prefer him over Bill Shorten. |
| It shouldn’t be surprising that the public don’t buy the argument that he’s just an Abbott clone. | It shouldn’t be surprising that the public don’t buy the argument that he’s just an Abbott clone. |
| How can this be since much of the government’s political agenda remains unchanged? | How can this be since much of the government’s political agenda remains unchanged? |
| Essentially it’s because no matter how many times the mantra of “Malcolm Turnbull is Tony Abbott in a nicer suit” is repeated, the average voter just won’t believe it. Voters know that Turnbull and Abbott were leadership rivals who didn’t get along, and their perception of Turnbull is of a sophisticated, thoroughly modern and forward-looking leader, in contrast to Abbott’s dull and incoherent conservatism. | Essentially it’s because no matter how many times the mantra of “Malcolm Turnbull is Tony Abbott in a nicer suit” is repeated, the average voter just won’t believe it. Voters know that Turnbull and Abbott were leadership rivals who didn’t get along, and their perception of Turnbull is of a sophisticated, thoroughly modern and forward-looking leader, in contrast to Abbott’s dull and incoherent conservatism. |
| Top it off with the fact that Turnbull was actually responsible for deposing Tony Abbott from the prime ministership, it shouldn’t be surprising that the public don’t buy the argument that he’s just an Abbott clone. | Top it off with the fact that Turnbull was actually responsible for deposing Tony Abbott from the prime ministership, it shouldn’t be surprising that the public don’t buy the argument that he’s just an Abbott clone. |
| You don’t have to be a political insider to see that Labor, the Greens and their extra-parliamentary allies like the union movement have been caught off guard by Turnbull’s ascendence. The strategy under Abbott was clear: remind voters how much they personally despise him and that he is trying to destroy universal healthcare and defund our public schools and universities, and hope the wave of resentment propels them into government. | You don’t have to be a political insider to see that Labor, the Greens and their extra-parliamentary allies like the union movement have been caught off guard by Turnbull’s ascendence. The strategy under Abbott was clear: remind voters how much they personally despise him and that he is trying to destroy universal healthcare and defund our public schools and universities, and hope the wave of resentment propels them into government. |
| Without the Abbott bogeyman, disarray has set in. Labor’s bizarre proxy attack on Turnbull’s wealth, by unsubtly pointing out some of his investments were managed out of the Cayman Islands, encapsulates their disorientation and confusion. The offensive was quickly shut down when Labor MP’s realised they couldn’t rule out having some of their own investments managed in the Cayman Islands. | Without the Abbott bogeyman, disarray has set in. Labor’s bizarre proxy attack on Turnbull’s wealth, by unsubtly pointing out some of his investments were managed out of the Cayman Islands, encapsulates their disorientation and confusion. The offensive was quickly shut down when Labor MP’s realised they couldn’t rule out having some of their own investments managed in the Cayman Islands. |
| All the attack achieved was to remind voters that the prime minister is independently wealthy and a financially acute businessman. In other words, a role model for the kind of aspirational, middle-Australia voters Labor has spent 30 years trying to pivot towards. | All the attack achieved was to remind voters that the prime minister is independently wealthy and a financially acute businessman. In other words, a role model for the kind of aspirational, middle-Australia voters Labor has spent 30 years trying to pivot towards. |
| Another example of Labor’s strategic confusion is the reincarnation of Bill Shorten as some sort of uber-venture capitalist, committed to turning Australia into a “startup nation”. Since taking on the prime ministership, Turnbull has made political hay out of the fact he started up one of Australia’s first internet service providers and therefore “gets” the kind of policies required to build an innovative Australia. | Another example of Labor’s strategic confusion is the reincarnation of Bill Shorten as some sort of uber-venture capitalist, committed to turning Australia into a “startup nation”. Since taking on the prime ministership, Turnbull has made political hay out of the fact he started up one of Australia’s first internet service providers and therefore “gets” the kind of policies required to build an innovative Australia. |
| Turnbull owns the space. Why would Australians trust a former union boss who smells like shady deals rather than an actual entrepreneur when it comes to startups and innovation policy? | Turnbull owns the space. Why would Australians trust a former union boss who smells like shady deals rather than an actual entrepreneur when it comes to startups and innovation policy? |
| Related: From 'axe the tax' to 'climate consensus': how Abbott reshaped our climate story | Alex Frankel | Related: From 'axe the tax' to 'climate consensus': how Abbott reshaped our climate story | Alex Frankel |
| It’s clear the strategy of trying to portray Malcolm Turnbull as a smoother, more charming Tony Abbott is failing. While Labor seems confused on how to respond, the Greens appear to be moving towards a position of potentially negotiating more political deals with the Turnbull government, to demonstrate their maturity. However, this approach simply sends a message to the voters who switched their support to Turnbull that they did the right thing, and legitimises the government’s agenda. | |
| Both Labor and the Greens should stop trying to develop a political strategy premised around trying to neutralise Turnbull the individual. It won’t work and it doesn’t provide the kind of vision that motivates and excites voters. | Both Labor and the Greens should stop trying to develop a political strategy premised around trying to neutralise Turnbull the individual. It won’t work and it doesn’t provide the kind of vision that motivates and excites voters. |
| By ignoring the prime minister’s insurmountable personal charm and instead developing a coherent platform that outlines the kinds of policies Australia needs for the future (and the values that underpin them) and communicating those directly to voters, progressives can bypass the Turnbull phenomenon and potentially defeat the Coalition. | By ignoring the prime minister’s insurmountable personal charm and instead developing a coherent platform that outlines the kinds of policies Australia needs for the future (and the values that underpin them) and communicating those directly to voters, progressives can bypass the Turnbull phenomenon and potentially defeat the Coalition. |