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US economy expected to slow as rate hike expectations build - business live US economic growth slows sharply to 1.5% - live updates
(35 minutes later)
12.58pm GMT12:58
We’ve also got data showing that consumer inflation in the US fell during the last quarter.
The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) fell to 1.2%, down from 2.1% in the second quarter.
Dan Alpert, Managing Partner of New York investment bank Westwood Capital. says it suggests the economy is cooling. He’s not impressed with the growth figures either:
#GDP: Meh, tending to yuck. Consumers consuming sorta respectably. PCE Price index falls more to 1.2%. In normal times #Fed w/be cutting now
12.52pm GMT12:52
Bloomberg’s Carl Riccadonna reckons this growth report suggests US interest rates should remain at their current record low:
Overall, GDP growth slipped from 2.7% to 2.0%--this will not give the Fed confidence that time is right for liftoff.
12.48pm GMT12:48
This excellent spreadsheet shows which parts of the US economy grew in the last quarter (in green) and which shrank (in red):
Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP: pic.twitter.com/CvGztxe6CW
It highlights that consumer spending gave the biggest positive bump to the US economy in the last three months.
Updated at 12.48pm GMT
12.45pm GMT12:45
The US has grown by an average of 2% so far this year -- is that really enough to justify a rate hike in December?
#US GDP at 1.5% in Q3 leaving average quarterly growth so far this year at a rather modest 2% - we are at or a even a little below trend
If you're counting, GDP growth has averaged 2 percent through first three quarters of 2015. Another solid year, not a breakout year.
Updated at 12.49pm GMT
12.41pm GMT12:41
US GDP: The Detail
Today’s GDP report shows that US consumers drove growth in the last three months.
Household spending grew 3.2% in the quarter, suggesting the domestic economy remains strong.
However, US companies expanded their stockpiles at a slower rate, as they worked off inventories they had build up earlier this year. That was a drag on growth.
The report also shows that exports were hit by the strength of the US dollar (due to speculation that the Federal Reserve hikes US borrowing costs soon)
12.37pm GMT12:37
This US slowdown means that Britain is growing faster than America, at least over the last three months.
UK GDP rose by 0.5% in the third quarter, which equates to an annualised rate of 2%.
12.36pm GMT12:36
This growth reading is broadly in line with forecasts:
GDP forecasts were quite accurate, it turns out. No big surprises here.
12.31pm GMT12:31
US economic growth slows sharply
Here we go! The US economy has slowed sharply in the third quarter of this year.
GDP rose by an annualised rate of just 1.5% during Q3, according to data JUST released by the Commerce department. That’s a serious slowdown on the 3.9% recorded in the second quarter.
That means the US economy grew by less than 0.4% between the start of July and the end of September as weakness in the global economy hits the world’s largest economy.
More to follow!
Updated at 12.32pm GMT
12.25pm GMT12:25
Coming up at the bottom of the hour, the Q3 Advance US GDP report will be released. Traders expect a 1.6% annualized rate of growth.
12.19pm GMT12:1912.19pm GMT12:19
US GDP: A preambleUS GDP: A preamble
Just 10 minutes to go until we learn how the US economy fared in the last three months.Just 10 minutes to go until we learn how the US economy fared in the last three months.
Remember: Wall Street expect a sharp slowdown, from an annual rate of 3.9% to around 1.6%. Remember: Wall Street expect a sharp slowdown, from an annual rate of 3.9% in Q2 to around 1.6% in Q3.
Economists will be looking for several things. including:Economists will be looking for several things. including:
Updated at 12.27pm GMT
12.00pm GMT12:0012.00pm GMT12:00
The UK has made significant progress in creating gender diversity in the UK, but more needs to be done to get the City closer to parity.The UK has made significant progress in creating gender diversity in the UK, but more needs to be done to get the City closer to parity.
As flagged up early this morning, Lord Mervyn Davies has called for women to hold at least 33% of all board positions by the end of this decade.As flagged up early this morning, Lord Mervyn Davies has called for women to hold at least 33% of all board positions by the end of this decade.
There are more women on FTSE 350 boards than ever before – 26.1% at FTSE 100 companies and 19.6% at FTSE 250 firms. Davies said there had been 550 new women appointments in just over four years.There are more women on FTSE 350 boards than ever before – 26.1% at FTSE 100 companies and 19.6% at FTSE 250 firms. Davies said there had been 550 new women appointments in just over four years.
And ever FTSE 100 company has at least one women on the boardAnd ever FTSE 100 company has at least one women on the board
Davies argues that this progress shows that the City doesn’t need fixed quotas.Davies argues that this progress shows that the City doesn’t need fixed quotas.
There is no evidence to warrant an about turn, but plenty of evidence to show the voluntary regime is working, as each and every month the percentage of women on FTSE boards increases.”There is no evidence to warrant an about turn, but plenty of evidence to show the voluntary regime is working, as each and every month the percentage of women on FTSE boards increases.”
Here’s our story on today’s report:Here’s our story on today’s report:
Related: A third of boardroom positions should be held by women, UK firms toldRelated: A third of boardroom positions should be held by women, UK firms told
It also sounds like the message hasn’t got through to the more old-fashioned areas of finance:It also sounds like the message hasn’t got through to the more old-fashioned areas of finance:
Impressive progress with women on boards. Comments on @FT article show there is still some way to go @30percentclub pic.twitter.com/eFTrWleZmKImpressive progress with women on boards. Comments on @FT article show there is still some way to go @30percentclub pic.twitter.com/eFTrWleZmK
11.26am GMT11:2611.26am GMT11:26
UK retail sales disappointUK retail sales disappoint
Katie AllenKatie Allen
Back in the UK, the latest snapshot of retail sales has come in weaker than expected, raises further questions about the strength of the wider economy.Back in the UK, the latest snapshot of retail sales has come in weaker than expected, raises further questions about the strength of the wider economy.
After news earlier this week that UK GDP growth eased in the third quarter, the CBI’s survey of retailers points to a subdued start to the final three months of the year.After news earlier this week that UK GDP growth eased in the third quarter, the CBI’s survey of retailers points to a subdued start to the final three months of the year.
The business group’s indicator of retail sales volumes signalled the slowest growth for six months in October after a strong September.The business group’s indicator of retail sales volumes signalled the slowest growth for six months in October after a strong September.
The CBI survey of 112 firms, which assesses the sector based on a balance of responses from individual companies, showed 38% said volumes were up on a year ago, and 20% said they were down. That gave a balance of +19%, compared with +49% in September. Retailers themselves had been expecting a reading of +51%.The CBI survey of 112 firms, which assesses the sector based on a balance of responses from individual companies, showed 38% said volumes were up on a year ago, and 20% said they were down. That gave a balance of +19%, compared with +49% in September. Retailers themselves had been expecting a reading of +51%.
But sales were regarded as above average for the time of year and growth was expected to improve slightly next month. Growth in orders placed upon suppliers was also lower than expected but remained above its long run average.But sales were regarded as above average for the time of year and growth was expected to improve slightly next month. Growth in orders placed upon suppliers was also lower than expected but remained above its long run average.
Internet sales volumes accelerated in the year to October, with growth set to pick up further next month, the CBI said.Internet sales volumes accelerated in the year to October, with growth set to pick up further next month, the CBI said.
Rain Newton-Smith, CBI director of economics, comments:Rain Newton-Smith, CBI director of economics, comments:
“Growth in sales and orders for high street retailers remains resilient, but there has been a slight slowdown in the pace of that growth following a strong September.“Growth in sales and orders for high street retailers remains resilient, but there has been a slight slowdown in the pace of that growth following a strong September.
“Internet sales are starting to ramp up again as we head towards Christmas and we would expect them to continue this positive pattern until the end of the year.“Internet sales are starting to ramp up again as we head towards Christmas and we would expect them to continue this positive pattern until the end of the year.
“Low inflation and improving wages mean the prospects for sales growth are decent, but challenges remain, like the weakening global economy and competitive pressures in the retail sector, so we can’t take this positive outlook for granted.”“Low inflation and improving wages mean the prospects for sales growth are decent, but challenges remain, like the weakening global economy and competitive pressures in the retail sector, so we can’t take this positive outlook for granted.”
11.15am GMT11:1511.15am GMT11:15
City veteran George Magnus makes a typically astute point:City veteran George Magnus makes a typically astute point:
Too late. Countries w/o state interference in fertility had lower birth rates. It's called getting richer https://t.co/5ljCTEVnxhToo late. Countries w/o state interference in fertility had lower birth rates. It's called getting richer https://t.co/5ljCTEVnxh
Rising prosperity can bring better access to contraception, better education and job prospects for women (which is also a key factor in reducing poverty).Rising prosperity can bring better access to contraception, better education and job prospects for women (which is also a key factor in reducing poverty).
It can also make it harder for couples to settle down early....It can also make it harder for couples to settle down early....
Party: we'll leave the one-child policy to the property market instead.Party: we'll leave the one-child policy to the property market instead.
Updated at 11.19am GMTUpdated at 11.19am GMT
11.14am GMT11:1411.14am GMT11:14
We should remember that China’s one-child-per-family policy had already begun to be relaxed before today’s news.We should remember that China’s one-child-per-family policy had already begun to be relaxed before today’s news.
In 2013, Beijing said couples could have two children if one of them was an only child (fairly likely, given the old policy)In 2013, Beijing said couples could have two children if one of them was an only child (fairly likely, given the old policy)
The FT’s David Keohane has done a nice analysis. Here’s a flavour:The FT’s David Keohane has done a nice analysis. Here’s a flavour:
You could have a second child if you or your partner were yourself an only child. That alongside the fact it was already possible to buy yourself an exception and it didn’t count if you were a rural family whose first child was a girl meant there were quite a few loopholes. And in 2007, via JPM, a family-planning official in China estimated the one-child policy applied to less than 40% of the population. .You could have a second child if you or your partner were yourself an only child. That alongside the fact it was already possible to buy yourself an exception and it didn’t count if you were a rural family whose first child was a girl meant there were quite a few loopholes. And in 2007, via JPM, a family-planning official in China estimated the one-child policy applied to less than 40% of the population. .
Better hope this attempt goes better than that 2013 attempt to shake things up. As Cap Econ said of that move, “Partial easing of the policy in late 2013 – the government allowed couples to have a second child if one of the parents is an only child – didn’t increase the birth rate by as much as the government had anticipated.Better hope this attempt goes better than that 2013 attempt to shake things up. As Cap Econ said of that move, “Partial easing of the policy in late 2013 – the government allowed couples to have a second child if one of the parents is an only child – didn’t increase the birth rate by as much as the government had anticipated.
My man @DavidKeo has the definitive piece on China's latest tweak to the rules on number of children allowed https://t.co/jzxsxRubchMy man @DavidKeo has the definitive piece on China's latest tweak to the rules on number of children allowed https://t.co/jzxsxRubch
11.04am GMT11:0411.04am GMT11:04
The New Zealand dollar is also getting a boost; its dairy industry could benefit from faster population growth in China.The New Zealand dollar is also getting a boost; its dairy industry could benefit from faster population growth in China.
New Zealand Dollar flies as #China drops one-child policy. pic.twitter.com/ZpK5ktWSoeNew Zealand Dollar flies as #China drops one-child policy. pic.twitter.com/ZpK5ktWSoe
10.48am GMT10:4810.48am GMT10:48
Shares in French consumer giant Danone have jumped by 2% after news broke that China is ending its one-child-per-family policy.Shares in French consumer giant Danone have jumped by 2% after news broke that China is ending its one-child-per-family policy.
Danone is a major producer of baby food and formula, so should benefit quite quickly from the change.Danone is a major producer of baby food and formula, so should benefit quite quickly from the change.
10.44am GMT10:4410.44am GMT10:44
China goes for growth by abolishing one-child ruleChina goes for growth by abolishing one-child rule
Big news breaking in China... Beijing is abolishing the one-child per family policy as part of its attempts to boost growth.Big news breaking in China... Beijing is abolishing the one-child per family policy as part of its attempts to boost growth.
That’s according to the official newswire, Xinhua, which is reporting that all couples will be allowed two children.That’s according to the official newswire, Xinhua, which is reporting that all couples will be allowed two children.
Xinhua: China is targeting "medium-high" eco growth for 2016-2020. Clarida on @bsurveillance says if this a departure from figures, it's NB.Xinhua: China is targeting "medium-high" eco growth for 2016-2020. Clarida on @bsurveillance says if this a departure from figures, it's NB.
This ends its three-decades policy, and could have a significant long-term impact on China’s economic prospects. Eventually.....This ends its three-decades policy, and could have a significant long-term impact on China’s economic prospects. Eventually.....
Long-run GDP is basically population growth times productivity. Expect #China's new two-child policy to have an impact in 20 yearsLong-run GDP is basically population growth times productivity. Expect #China's new two-child policy to have an impact in 20 years
Impact of the #China decision to allow 2-child families won't be felt yet, but will be massive for the next generation in Asia, circa 2035+Impact of the #China decision to allow 2-child families won't be felt yet, but will be massive for the next generation in Asia, circa 2035+
Top Communist party officials have been setting the country’s new five-year plan this week, with a big focus on growth.Top Communist party officials have been setting the country’s new five-year plan this week, with a big focus on growth.
Updated at 11.08am GMTUpdated at 11.08am GMT
10.31am GMT10:3110.31am GMT10:31
We also have new consumer confidence figures for the eurozone, which show a small deterioration this month.We also have new consumer confidence figures for the eurozone, which show a small deterioration this month.
CHART: Italy's consumer confidence higher than Germany's for the first time in 5 years. France remains an outlier. pic.twitter.com/6ve3HoHQM2CHART: Italy's consumer confidence higher than Germany's for the first time in 5 years. France remains an outlier. pic.twitter.com/6ve3HoHQM2
10.27am GMT10:2710.27am GMT10:27
The latest survey of European economic confidence is out, and it shows that firms are a little more optimistic.The latest survey of European economic confidence is out, and it shows that firms are a little more optimistic.
The Commission’s Economic Sentiment index has risen to 105.9 in the eurozone, up from 105.6 in September, and closer to the wider EU measure.The Commission’s Economic Sentiment index has risen to 105.9 in the eurozone, up from 105.6 in September, and closer to the wider EU measure.
That’s the fourth rise in a row, suggesting conditions are steadily (and slowly) improving.That’s the fourth rise in a row, suggesting conditions are steadily (and slowly) improving.
10.07am GMT10:0710.07am GMT10:07
Traders in Frankfurt aren’t too impressed by Deutsche Bank’s new turnaround plan.Traders in Frankfurt aren’t too impressed by Deutsche Bank’s new turnaround plan.
Shares in the company have slumped by 6% this morning, as investors digest the thousand of job cuts announced by John Cryan today. His decision to axe dividends in 2015 and 2016 has not helped the mood.Shares in the company have slumped by 6% this morning, as investors digest the thousand of job cuts announced by John Cryan today. His decision to axe dividends in 2015 and 2016 has not helped the mood.
Reuters explains why:Reuters explains why:
“We still believe there are major risks here and therefore think a capital increase in 2016 is still highly probable,” Citi analysts said in a note.“We still believe there are major risks here and therefore think a capital increase in 2016 is still highly probable,” Citi analysts said in a note.
A trader said: “Investors are very disappointed. Two years of no dividends and CEO Cryan cautions 2016 and 2017 won’t be strong in terms of business either. That’s a long time and shareholders are wondering why they should stay invested.”A trader said: “Investors are very disappointed. Two years of no dividends and CEO Cryan cautions 2016 and 2017 won’t be strong in terms of business either. That’s a long time and shareholders are wondering why they should stay invested.”
9.53am GMT09:539.53am GMT09:53
Something for London property owners to ponder...Something for London property owners to ponder...
UBS Real Estate Bubble Index shows majority of of world cities significantly overvalued. London is especially bubbly pic.twitter.com/4RcmbR9lfvUBS Real Estate Bubble Index shows majority of of world cities significantly overvalued. London is especially bubbly pic.twitter.com/4RcmbR9lfv
9.41am GMT09:419.41am GMT09:41
Today’s US growth report (due in under three hours) could be less grim than some economists predict, reckons Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX.Today’s US growth report (due in under three hours) could be less grim than some economists predict, reckons Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX.
He believes that Wall Street forecasts may not capture the latest economic data, such as better-than-expected trade figures released yesterday. So the slowdown might not be quite as severe....He believes that Wall Street forecasts may not capture the latest economic data, such as better-than-expected trade figures released yesterday. So the slowdown might not be quite as severe....
Spivak says:Spivak says:
The preliminary set of third-quarter US GDP figures is in focus. The annualized growth rate is expected to register at 1.6%, down from 3.9% recorded in the three months through June. US economic news-flow has improved relative to consensus forecasts recently, hinting analysts’ models are underestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for an upside surprise.The preliminary set of third-quarter US GDP figures is in focus. The annualized growth rate is expected to register at 1.6%, down from 3.9% recorded in the three months through June. US economic news-flow has improved relative to consensus forecasts recently, hinting analysts’ models are underestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for an upside surprise.
Such a result may boost the likelihood of a 2015 Fed rate hike in the minds of investors, pushing the US Dollar higher. The impact on risk sentiment trends is unclear for now but whatever happens may help establish a dominant paradigm in the days and weeks ahead.Such a result may boost the likelihood of a 2015 Fed rate hike in the minds of investors, pushing the US Dollar higher. The impact on risk sentiment trends is unclear for now but whatever happens may help establish a dominant paradigm in the days and weeks ahead.
Updated at 9.50am GMTUpdated at 9.50am GMT
9.23am GMT09:239.23am GMT09:23
Deutsche Bank has also revealed that 4,000 of its 9,000 job cuts will fall in Germany.Deutsche Bank has also revealed that 4,000 of its 9,000 job cuts will fall in Germany.
Staff who survive the cull could also be also hit in the pocket. John Cryan says it would be “unacceptable” to not share the consequences of recent poor behaviour.Staff who survive the cull could also be also hit in the pocket. John Cryan says it would be “unacceptable” to not share the consequences of recent poor behaviour.
That poor behaviour includes a record $2.5bn fine for Deutsche’s role in the Libor rigging scandal.That poor behaviour includes a record $2.5bn fine for Deutsche’s role in the Libor rigging scandal.
9.15am GMT09:159.15am GMT09:15
Deutsche Bank announces huge job cutsDeutsche Bank announces huge job cuts
It’s a black morning for Deutsche Bank staff, as new chief executive Jon Cryan wields the axe at Germany’s biggest bank.It’s a black morning for Deutsche Bank staff, as new chief executive Jon Cryan wields the axe at Germany’s biggest bank.
Cryam has just announced plans to cut 9,000 jobs, and sell businesses which employ another 15,000 people. That’s around 25% of the company’s workforce.Cryam has just announced plans to cut 9,000 jobs, and sell businesses which employ another 15,000 people. That’s around 25% of the company’s workforce.
Deutsche is pulling out of a swathe of developing and smaller advanced economies. It will close operations in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Malta and New Zealand.Deutsche is pulling out of a swathe of developing and smaller advanced economies. It will close operations in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Malta and New Zealand.
Around 6,000 consultants are also facing the chop, as part of a cost-cutting spree that will also see dividend payments suspended until 2017.Around 6,000 consultants are also facing the chop, as part of a cost-cutting spree that will also see dividend payments suspended until 2017.
News of the restructuring came shortly after Deutsche reported a net loss of €6bn in the three months to the end of September, and a 7% slide in revenues.News of the restructuring came shortly after Deutsche reported a net loss of €6bn in the three months to the end of September, and a 7% slide in revenues.
Cryan, who took over in July, told reporters that the company faces “hard decisions” after its “highly disappointing” performance, adding:Cryan, who took over in July, told reporters that the company faces “hard decisions” after its “highly disappointing” performance, adding:
“We must reduce Deutsche Bank’s complexity”“We must reduce Deutsche Bank’s complexity”
Updated at 9.18am GMTUpdated at 9.18am GMT
8.50am GMT08:508.50am GMT08:50
Miners and Barclays drag London stock market downMiners and Barclays drag London stock market down
Those disappointing results from Barclays and Royal Dutch Shell have helped to wipe almost 1% off the FTSE 100 this morning.Those disappointing results from Barclays and Royal Dutch Shell have helped to wipe almost 1% off the FTSE 100 this morning.
The blue chip index is down 53 points at 6383, with mining stocks among the big fallers.The blue chip index is down 53 points at 6383, with mining stocks among the big fallers.
Miners in the bad books again. $FTSE pic.twitter.com/U51OpSBvwcMiners in the bad books again. $FTSE pic.twitter.com/U51OpSBvwc
Conner Campbell of SpreadEx explains:Conner Campbell of SpreadEx explains:
Helping drag the commodity sector as a whole further into the red was Shell; announcing its third quarter results less than 48 hours after revealing its latest ($2 billion) write-down in relation to its failed Carmon Creek project, the oil giant slipped to a $6.1 billion loss after the cost of ending multiple long term projects added up to a whopping $8.2 billion.Helping drag the commodity sector as a whole further into the red was Shell; announcing its third quarter results less than 48 hours after revealing its latest ($2 billion) write-down in relation to its failed Carmon Creek project, the oil giant slipped to a $6.1 billion loss after the cost of ending multiple long term projects added up to a whopping $8.2 billion.
This pushed Shell nearly 2% lower after the bell, worsening the situation in an already loss-loving sector.This pushed Shell nearly 2% lower after the bell, worsening the situation in an already loss-loving sector.
Other European stock markets are faring better this morning:Other European stock markets are faring better this morning:
Updated at 9.02am GMTUpdated at 9.02am GMT
8.34am GMT08:348.34am GMT08:34
Shares in Barclays have fallen by 3.5% in early trading, after the bank missed profit forecasts and posted a 10% drop in adjusted earnings.Shares in Barclays have fallen by 3.5% in early trading, after the bank missed profit forecasts and posted a 10% drop in adjusted earnings.
Barclays also revealed that ring-fencing its retail banking arm will cost £1bn, on top of £2.3bn bill on legal costs and compensation.Barclays also revealed that ring-fencing its retail banking arm will cost £1bn, on top of £2.3bn bill on legal costs and compensation.
And intriguingly, the company also warned that it faces new compensation claims to foreign exchange customers. But Barclays refused to give much information in a conference call with the media....And intriguingly, the company also warned that it faces new compensation claims to foreign exchange customers. But Barclays refused to give much information in a conference call with the media....
My colleague Jill Treanor tells us what we know:My colleague Jill Treanor tells us what we know:
As its new boss, Jes Staley, pledged to clean up the bank’s reputation, Barclays said it was facing £290m redress costs as a result of an internal review relating to rates for foreign exchange transactions between 2005 and 2012.As its new boss, Jes Staley, pledged to clean up the bank’s reputation, Barclays said it was facing £290m redress costs as a result of an internal review relating to rates for foreign exchange transactions between 2005 and 2012.
The figures were released a day after Barclays named Staley, a US investment banker, as its new chief executive. He is on a £10m pay packet and will start on 1 December.The figures were released a day after Barclays named Staley, a US investment banker, as its new chief executive. He is on a £10m pay packet and will start on 1 December.
The £290m is part of £1.3bn set aside for compensating customers in the fist nine months of this year, while there is £1bn for on going investigations and litigation.The £290m is part of £1.3bn set aside for compensating customers in the fist nine months of this year, while there is £1bn for on going investigations and litigation.
More here:More here:
Related: Barclays legal bill hits £2.3bn in nine monthsRelated: Barclays legal bill hits £2.3bn in nine months
Updated at 8.36am GMTUpdated at 8.36am GMT
8.25am GMT08:258.25am GMT08:25
The UK government has taken another step towards untangling itself from the banking sector, by selling more shares in Lloyds Banking Group.The UK government has taken another step towards untangling itself from the banking sector, by selling more shares in Lloyds Banking Group.
This cuts the taxpayers stake in Lloyds to below 10%, seven years after bailing out the company during the financial crisis.This cuts the taxpayers stake in Lloyds to below 10%, seven years after bailing out the company during the financial crisis.
Updated at 8.25am GMTUpdated at 8.25am GMT
8.12am GMT08:128.12am GMT08:12
Morgan Stanley reckons the Federal Reserve will be feeling pleased with itself:Morgan Stanley reckons the Federal Reserve will be feeling pleased with itself:
MS: Fed was aiming for markets to adjust to better price-in a December hike. At close-to 50/50 now, the Fed got what it was looking for.MS: Fed was aiming for markets to adjust to better price-in a December hike. At close-to 50/50 now, the Fed got what it was looking for.
8.10am GMT08:108.10am GMT08:10
UK house prices rise againUK house prices rise again
Britain’s economy may be slowing down, but house prices are still rising.Britain’s economy may be slowing down, but house prices are still rising.
Nationwide has reported that prices rose by 0.6% this month, pushing the annual house price inflation up to 3.9%.Nationwide has reported that prices rose by 0.6% this month, pushing the annual house price inflation up to 3.9%.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, says house prices will probably keep rising. But can building firms keep up?Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, says house prices will probably keep rising. But can building firms keep up?
Gardner says:Gardner says:
“Over the past five months annual price growth has remained in a fairly narrow range between 3% and 4%, broadly consistent with earnings growth over the longer term.“Over the past five months annual price growth has remained in a fairly narrow range between 3% and 4%, broadly consistent with earnings growth over the longer term.
While this bodes well for a sustainable increase in housing market activity, much will depend on whether building activity can keep pace with increasing demand.While this bodes well for a sustainable increase in housing market activity, much will depend on whether building activity can keep pace with increasing demand.
8.04am GMT08:048.04am GMT08:04
This explains why the markets are taking the Federal Reserve’s comment about considering a rate rise at its “next meeting” so seriously:This explains why the markets are taking the Federal Reserve’s comment about considering a rate rise at its “next meeting” so seriously:
JPM's Feroli: the statement's direct reference to the 'next' mtg was the first such mention of possible action at a subsequent mtg since '99JPM's Feroli: the statement's direct reference to the 'next' mtg was the first such mention of possible action at a subsequent mtg since '99
7.59am GMT07:597.59am GMT07:59
Today’s US GDP report will probably show that growth has fallen back below the 2% trend rate.Today’s US GDP report will probably show that growth has fallen back below the 2% trend rate.
The Wall Street Journal explains:The Wall Street Journal explains:
The economy has grown at little better than a 2% pace since the recovery began in mid-2009. That’s largely because a quarter or two of above-trend growth has been upended by a weak performance.The economy has grown at little better than a 2% pace since the recovery began in mid-2009. That’s largely because a quarter or two of above-trend growth has been upended by a weak performance.
If the third-quarter data turns out as economists project, growth for the year will have decelerated from last year’s 2.4% increase.If the third-quarter data turns out as economists project, growth for the year will have decelerated from last year’s 2.4% increase.
As this chart shows, the US economy has been held back by two bad winters:As this chart shows, the US economy has been held back by two bad winters:
7.53am GMT07:537.53am GMT07:53
Before last night’s Fed meeting, investors were only pricing in a 35% chance that US borrowing costs would rise in December. It’s now a 48% chance:Before last night’s Fed meeting, investors were only pricing in a 35% chance that US borrowing costs would rise in December. It’s now a 48% chance:
Morning Note: 1. Premier Li floats 6.5% target. 2. DB plans to scrap dividend. 3. And there was a Fed meeting... pic.twitter.com/6IZW1ryiXyMorning Note: 1. Premier Li floats 6.5% target. 2. DB plans to scrap dividend. 3. And there was a Fed meeting... pic.twitter.com/6IZW1ryiXy
7.49am GMT07:497.49am GMT07:49
US GDP: Growth expected to slow sharplyUS GDP: Growth expected to slow sharply
In a few hours we find out how badly the US economy has suffered from the problems in emerging markets, and China’s slowdown.In a few hours we find out how badly the US economy has suffered from the problems in emerging markets, and China’s slowdown.
Economists expect that the first estimate of US GDP for the last quarter, due at 12.30pm GMT, will show a sharp drop in growth in the world’s biggest economy.Economists expect that the first estimate of US GDP for the last quarter, due at 12.30pm GMT, will show a sharp drop in growth in the world’s biggest economy.
Wall Street estimates that US GDP rose at an annualised rate of around 1.5%, or roughly 0.4% in pure quarterly terms. If so, that’s a big slowdown compared to the second quarter of 2015, when the US posted annualised growth of 3.9% (or 1% quarter-on-quarter).Wall Street estimates that US GDP rose at an annualised rate of around 1.5%, or roughly 0.4% in pure quarterly terms. If so, that’s a big slowdown compared to the second quarter of 2015, when the US posted annualised growth of 3.9% (or 1% quarter-on-quarter).
A weak GDP print will add to growing concerns over the global economy. Earlier this week, UK growth slowed from 0.7% to 0.5%, suggesting advanced economies are coming off the boil.A weak GDP print will add to growing concerns over the global economy. Earlier this week, UK growth slowed from 0.7% to 0.5%, suggesting advanced economies are coming off the boil.
BUT.... the report may also show that the US domestic economy is strengthening. If consumer spending is strong, then the Federal Reserve may feel emboldened to push on and raise interest rates in December....BUT.... the report may also show that the US domestic economy is strengthening. If consumer spending is strong, then the Federal Reserve may feel emboldened to push on and raise interest rates in December....
Updated at 7.50am GMTUpdated at 7.50am GMT
7.26am GMT07:267.26am GMT07:26
The Agenda: US rate hike expectations buildThe Agenda: US rate hike expectations build
Good morning , and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning , and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Today we’ll be mopping up the reaction to last night’s Federal Reserve meeting, where US policymakers floated the serious possibility of raising interest rates in December.Today we’ll be mopping up the reaction to last night’s Federal Reserve meeting, where US policymakers floated the serious possibility of raising interest rates in December.
America’s central bank dropped its previous warnings about risk that global financial problems pose to the US economy.America’s central bank dropped its previous warnings about risk that global financial problems pose to the US economy.
And it added a crucial new sentence to its monetary policy statement:And it added a crucial new sentence to its monetary policy statement:
“In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.”“In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.”
This suggests that a first rate rise in almost a decade could finally be close. And emerging market currencies have slid overnight, as money pours back into the US dollar.This suggests that a first rate rise in almost a decade could finally be close. And emerging market currencies have slid overnight, as money pours back into the US dollar.
IG’s Angus Nicholson explains:IG’s Angus Nicholson explains:
A new sentence in the Fed monetary policy statement has put a December rate hike by the Fed back on the table.A new sentence in the Fed monetary policy statement has put a December rate hike by the Fed back on the table.
G10 currencies slid against a resurgent US dollar, while the worst was left for emerging market currencies. The Korean won, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit saw the heaviest selling in Asia.G10 currencies slid against a resurgent US dollar, while the worst was left for emerging market currencies. The Korean won, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit saw the heaviest selling in Asia.
The euro has also weakened, which could send Mario Draghi scurrying off to hang up the Christmas decorations early:The euro has also weakened, which could send Mario Draghi scurrying off to hang up the Christmas decorations early:
#Dollar at 2-1/2-month high after Fed keeps Dec rate hike on agenda. Euro trades <$1.10. https://t.co/3tvmIjbBv3 pic.twitter.com/MEpU4ADLhJ#Dollar at 2-1/2-month high after Fed keeps Dec rate hike on agenda. Euro trades <$1.10. https://t.co/3tvmIjbBv3 pic.twitter.com/MEpU4ADLhJ
European stock markets are expected to take the news in their stride, perhaps taking comfort that the Fed isn’t as worried as last month.European stock markets are expected to take the news in their stride, perhaps taking comfort that the Fed isn’t as worried as last month.
That sets the scene for the main news of the day - the US growth figures, due at 12.30pm GMT, which are expected to show a sharp slowdown (more on that in a moment).That sets the scene for the main news of the day - the US growth figures, due at 12.30pm GMT, which are expected to show a sharp slowdown (more on that in a moment).
Lots of financial results to wade through this morning, including Deutsche Bank (which has reported a €6bn loss and is suspending its dividend in an attempt to cut costs and drive profits), Barclays (which has just posted a 13% drop in adjusted profits), and Royal Dutch Shell.Lots of financial results to wade through this morning, including Deutsche Bank (which has reported a €6bn loss and is suspending its dividend in an attempt to cut costs and drive profits), Barclays (which has just posted a 13% drop in adjusted profits), and Royal Dutch Shell.
Deutsche Bank posts €6bn Q3 loss.Deutsche Bank posts €6bn Q3 loss.
LATEST: Barclays 3rd-quarter adjusted pretax profit is £1.4 billion ($2.1 billion), down 13% https://t.co/CodSGQmEeQ pic.twitter.com/xNmRCIrgwmLATEST: Barclays 3rd-quarter adjusted pretax profit is £1.4 billion ($2.1 billion), down 13% https://t.co/CodSGQmEeQ pic.twitter.com/xNmRCIrgwm
Oil Giant Shell Slumps To £4bn Quarterly Loss https://t.co/c7oH8bYvny pic.twitter.com/MmSaJXMYd0Oil Giant Shell Slumps To £4bn Quarterly Loss https://t.co/c7oH8bYvny pic.twitter.com/MmSaJXMYd0
We also get the latest measure of UK house prices, from the Nationwide building society.We also get the latest measure of UK house prices, from the Nationwide building society.
And the City will be set a new target on gender diversity today. Lord Davies is expected to say that at least 33% of all board members at Britain’s biggest firms should be female, by 2020:And the City will be set a new target on gender diversity today. Lord Davies is expected to say that at least 33% of all board members at Britain’s biggest firms should be female, by 2020:
CITY AM: the 33% club #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/NZ6Svjjda8CITY AM: the 33% club #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/NZ6Svjjda8
We’ll be tracking all the main events through the dayWe’ll be tracking all the main events through the day
Updated at 7.32am GMTUpdated at 7.32am GMT