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Turks could pay high price for stability promised by Erdoğan Turks could pay high price for stability promised by Erdoğan
(about 17 hours later)
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s pugnacious president, was dealt a blow in June when his ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) unexpectedly lost its parliamentary majority. On Sunday, in a snap rerun of the June polls predicted to be a turning point for the nation, he rolled the dice of history, taking the riskiest gamble of his political life. And defying all the odds, he won.Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s pugnacious president, was dealt a blow in June when his ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) unexpectedly lost its parliamentary majority. On Sunday, in a snap rerun of the June polls predicted to be a turning point for the nation, he rolled the dice of history, taking the riskiest gamble of his political life. And defying all the odds, he won.
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But Turks may now pay a high price for the stability that Erdoğan vowed was only attainable if he and the AKP were once again given sole charge. Reduced to its essential components, Erdoğan’s unpalatable message was one of division and fear: fear of neighbours, Kurds, foreigners, refugees, the Americans, the EU – and fear of each other. The taste will linger.But Turks may now pay a high price for the stability that Erdoğan vowed was only attainable if he and the AKP were once again given sole charge. Reduced to its essential components, Erdoğan’s unpalatable message was one of division and fear: fear of neighbours, Kurds, foreigners, refugees, the Americans, the EU – and fear of each other. The taste will linger.
Erdoğan calculated that he could turn the vote around by playing the “après moi le deluge” card. “This election was necessitated by the unstable outcome of the 7 June elections. It has become apparent how important stability is to our nation,” he said on Sunday after casting his ballot. Erdoğan calculated that he could turn the vote around by playing the “après moi le déluge” card. “This election was necessitated by the unstable outcome of the 7 June elections. It has become apparent how important stability is to our nation,” he said on Sunday after casting his ballot.
Stability. Security. This was his constant refrain throughout the campaign, even as suicide bombers were murdering more than 100 Kurdish activists on his Ankara doorstep. He hammered it home again and again, even though, strictly speaking, the president should remain above the electoral fray. Plainly, enough voters took his chill warnings to heart.Stability. Security. This was his constant refrain throughout the campaign, even as suicide bombers were murdering more than 100 Kurdish activists on his Ankara doorstep. He hammered it home again and again, even though, strictly speaking, the president should remain above the electoral fray. Plainly, enough voters took his chill warnings to heart.
As the final results were counted on Sunday night, it became clear that Erdoğan’s party had defied the opinion polls and taken around 49% of the vote, according to TV projections, with more than 97% of all ballots counted. That put the AKP almost 10 points up on June. The main opposition party, the CHP, trailed a distant second on about 25%, while the pro-Kurdish party, the HDP, only just surmounted the 10% needed to enter parliament.As the final results were counted on Sunday night, it became clear that Erdoğan’s party had defied the opinion polls and taken around 49% of the vote, according to TV projections, with more than 97% of all ballots counted. That put the AKP almost 10 points up on June. The main opposition party, the CHP, trailed a distant second on about 25%, while the pro-Kurdish party, the HDP, only just surmounted the 10% needed to enter parliament.
It was a stunning personal triumph for a man whose authoritarianism has provoked deep concern over the future of Turkey’s democracy. Hailed by supporters as the new Ataturk, mocked by enemies as a wannabe Ottoman sultan, Erdoğan now has the chance to shape modern Turkey to his liking and stamp his character, vision and conservative, neo-Islamist views on the country for generations to come.It was a stunning personal triumph for a man whose authoritarianism has provoked deep concern over the future of Turkey’s democracy. Hailed by supporters as the new Ataturk, mocked by enemies as a wannabe Ottoman sultan, Erdoğan now has the chance to shape modern Turkey to his liking and stamp his character, vision and conservative, neo-Islamist views on the country for generations to come.
Roundly condemned for a crackdown on opposition newspapers, social media and independent journalism and reviled for his violent crushing of the 2013 Gezi park protests in Istanbul, Erdoğan has nevertheless come out on top again.Roundly condemned for a crackdown on opposition newspapers, social media and independent journalism and reviled for his violent crushing of the 2013 Gezi park protests in Istanbul, Erdoğan has nevertheless come out on top again.
His latest triumph is a feat to match or even surpass his three consecutive AKP general election victories since 2002; this time was all the more remarkable because he himself was not on the ballot. The election should have been about picking a new parliament. But in truth, it was all about him.His latest triumph is a feat to match or even surpass his three consecutive AKP general election victories since 2002; this time was all the more remarkable because he himself was not on the ballot. The election should have been about picking a new parliament. But in truth, it was all about him.
Related: Stability and security dominate Turkish election debatesRelated: Stability and security dominate Turkish election debates
The scale of the AKP’s surge, in which it apparently took votes from the nationalist MHP, whose share fell to around 12% from 16% last time, means it will hold at least 315 seats in the 550-member parliament (276 are required for a majority). If the party can attract enough votes from the nationalist MHP, it will be within tantalising reach of the 330 votes needed to allow it to amend or rewrite the constitution.The scale of the AKP’s surge, in which it apparently took votes from the nationalist MHP, whose share fell to around 12% from 16% last time, means it will hold at least 315 seats in the 550-member parliament (276 are required for a majority). If the party can attract enough votes from the nationalist MHP, it will be within tantalising reach of the 330 votes needed to allow it to amend or rewrite the constitution.
This in turn means Erdoğan is potentially now within sight of realising his most controversial and cherished ambition: to create a Putin-esque executive presidency and in effect change Turkey from a parliamentary democracy, under cabinet government, to a land of one-man presidential diktat. This has been his aim since he was forced under party rules to relinquish the prime ministership last year. Now he finally looks like getting his way.This in turn means Erdoğan is potentially now within sight of realising his most controversial and cherished ambition: to create a Putin-esque executive presidency and in effect change Turkey from a parliamentary democracy, under cabinet government, to a land of one-man presidential diktat. This has been his aim since he was forced under party rules to relinquish the prime ministership last year. Now he finally looks like getting his way.
Erdoğan’s outright victory will alarm the many Turkish and western critics of his confrontational approach to Turkey’s sizeable ethnic Kurd minority in the south-east of the country, and of his renewed military campaign against Kurdish separatists in northern Iraq. This shift resulted in mounting violence leading up to Sunday’s vote – and raised levels of insecurity among ordinary voters, which may have been its purpose.Erdoğan’s outright victory will alarm the many Turkish and western critics of his confrontational approach to Turkey’s sizeable ethnic Kurd minority in the south-east of the country, and of his renewed military campaign against Kurdish separatists in northern Iraq. This shift resulted in mounting violence leading up to Sunday’s vote – and raised levels of insecurity among ordinary voters, which may have been its purpose.
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Erdoğan was accused by critics of cynically reigniting the conflict after the AKP’s election setback. Now he may press his advantage and take even tougher action against the PKK’s armed separatists and their allies. Alternatively, secure in his new mandate, he could pull back and reinstate the ceasefire and the peace process that he himself set in train several years ago. The US will push for this latter course of action, and also for a halt to recent Turkish attacks on Syrian Kurd militias, whom Washington is backing as a buffer against Islamic State (Isis).Erdoğan was accused by critics of cynically reigniting the conflict after the AKP’s election setback. Now he may press his advantage and take even tougher action against the PKK’s armed separatists and their allies. Alternatively, secure in his new mandate, he could pull back and reinstate the ceasefire and the peace process that he himself set in train several years ago. The US will push for this latter course of action, and also for a halt to recent Turkish attacks on Syrian Kurd militias, whom Washington is backing as a buffer against Islamic State (Isis).
Even if it managed to scrape into parliament, the HDP, whose unprecedented success in June set all these events in motion, was the night’s loser. Speaking before the results were announced, Selahattin Demirtas, the HDP leader, was optimistic about Turkey’s future. “What all Turkey wants and needs more than anything is peace and calm. I hope good election results will give solace to the suffering families of those who gave their lives for peace, freedom and democracy.” Instead, Turkey’s Kurds now face an extended period of extreme uncertainty.Even if it managed to scrape into parliament, the HDP, whose unprecedented success in June set all these events in motion, was the night’s loser. Speaking before the results were announced, Selahattin Demirtas, the HDP leader, was optimistic about Turkey’s future. “What all Turkey wants and needs more than anything is peace and calm. I hope good election results will give solace to the suffering families of those who gave their lives for peace, freedom and democracy.” Instead, Turkey’s Kurds now face an extended period of extreme uncertainty.
Related: Beset by terror and crisis at home and war abroad, Turks prepare for a fateful choiceRelated: Beset by terror and crisis at home and war abroad, Turks prepare for a fateful choice
Erdoğan may also be tempted to up the ante in his negotiations with the EU about Turkey’s role in stemming the flow of Syrian refugees to Europe. His pre-election outline agreement with Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, to intercept and host refugees in return for billions of euros in EU aid and accelerated EU membership negotiations, could soon be in doubt.Erdoğan may also be tempted to up the ante in his negotiations with the EU about Turkey’s role in stemming the flow of Syrian refugees to Europe. His pre-election outline agreement with Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, to intercept and host refugees in return for billions of euros in EU aid and accelerated EU membership negotiations, could soon be in doubt.
He may now drive a much harder bargain, backed by a threat to walk away altogether. Given Sunday night’s results, Merkel must now also ask herself whether she played into Erdoğan’s hands by holding a meeting with him and boosting his standing shortly before the vote.He may now drive a much harder bargain, backed by a threat to walk away altogether. Given Sunday night’s results, Merkel must now also ask herself whether she played into Erdoğan’s hands by holding a meeting with him and boosting his standing shortly before the vote.
Erdoğan’s success on Sunday night, and his plan for an executive presidency, appear at odds with a nationwide survey conducted in April-May by the Pew Research Centre. It showed his personal approval rating down to a new low of 39%, compared with 51% last year and 62% in 2013.Erdoğan’s success on Sunday night, and his plan for an executive presidency, appear at odds with a nationwide survey conducted in April-May by the Pew Research Centre. It showed his personal approval rating down to a new low of 39%, compared with 51% last year and 62% in 2013.
The survey indicated that after uniting Turkey under his neo-Islamist AKP banner in the early years of his rule, Erdoğan has since become an increasingly divisive figure. The Pew survey found that 49% of Turks thought the country’s democracy was working well, while the other 49% thought the exact opposite.The survey indicated that after uniting Turkey under his neo-Islamist AKP banner in the early years of his rule, Erdoğan has since become an increasingly divisive figure. The Pew survey found that 49% of Turks thought the country’s democracy was working well, while the other 49% thought the exact opposite.
Most of those asked said they preferred parliamentary democracy to any other system. But amid the current atmosphere of violence and instability, support for Erdoğan’s style of “strongman leadership” is rising and now stands at 36%, as against 26% in 2012. These stark divisions seem certain to grow as long as the epic struggle for modern Turkey’s identity continues to rage.Most of those asked said they preferred parliamentary democracy to any other system. But amid the current atmosphere of violence and instability, support for Erdoğan’s style of “strongman leadership” is rising and now stands at 36%, as against 26% in 2012. These stark divisions seem certain to grow as long as the epic struggle for modern Turkey’s identity continues to rage.