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| Myanmar elections: What is happening? Your questions answered | Myanmar elections: What is happening? Your questions answered |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| What’s happening | What’s happening |
| Myanmar was ruled for five decades by a reclusive military junta that handpicked a nominally civilian government in 2010. This month the south-east Asian nation, formerly known as Burma, will vote in what is being touted as a free and fair election. | Myanmar was ruled for five decades by a reclusive military junta that handpicked a nominally civilian government in 2010. This month the south-east Asian nation, formerly known as Burma, will vote in what is being touted as a free and fair election. |
| When is voting day? | When is voting day? |
| Sunday November 8th. | Sunday November 8th. |
| Related: No vote, no candidates: Myanmar's Muslims barred from their own election | Related: No vote, no candidates: Myanmar's Muslims barred from their own election |
| When will we know the results? | When will we know the results? |
| Not on the day. Preliminary results could be announced on the 10th but it could be days, maybe weeks, before the official count is tallied. | Not on the day. Preliminary results could be announced on the 10th but it could be days, maybe weeks, before the official count is tallied. |
| Whose running and who will win? | Whose running and who will win? |
| There are more than 6,000 candidates and 91 registered political parties, many of them representing the large ethnic minority populations. They are competing for 498 seats for five-year terms in the upper and lower houses of the Hluttaw, Myanmar’s parliament. | There are more than 6,000 candidates and 91 registered political parties, many of them representing the large ethnic minority populations. They are competing for 498 seats for five-year terms in the upper and lower houses of the Hluttaw, Myanmar’s parliament. |
| All eyes are on the two frontrunners — the ruling and military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD). Myanmar observers say the Nobel peace prize winner’s party is expected to make huge gains after winning 43 out of the 44 parliamentary seats it contested in 2012 by-elections. | All eyes are on the two frontrunners — the ruling and military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD). Myanmar observers say the Nobel peace prize winner’s party is expected to make huge gains after winning 43 out of the 44 parliamentary seats it contested in 2012 by-elections. |
| In which case, Aung San Suu Kyi will become president? | In which case, Aung San Suu Kyi will become president? |
| No. A constitutional provision excludes her from the country’s top post as those with with foreign children are barred from the office. Suu Kyi’s late husband was British and she has two British sons. | No. A constitutional provision excludes her from the country’s top post as those with with foreign children are barred from the office. Suu Kyi’s late husband was British and she has two British sons. |
| In fact, no president will be announced until 2016 when elected MPs vote for a new leader. Three candidates run, two appointed by the Hluttaw and one by the military. The two runners-up become vice presidents. | In fact, no president will be announced until 2016 when elected MPs vote for a new leader. Three candidates run, two appointed by the Hluttaw and one by the military. The two runners-up become vice presidents. |
| However, Suu Kyi said in an interview last month that she plans to lead the country if her party triumphs despite the ban. The British-educated politician did not say how she would do that but added “the constitution will have to change to allow civilian authorities to have the necessary democratic authority over the armed forces.” | However, Suu Kyi said in an interview last month that she plans to lead the country if her party triumphs despite the ban. The British-educated politician did not say how she would do that but added “the constitution will have to change to allow civilian authorities to have the necessary democratic authority over the armed forces.” |
| Are these Myanmar’s first free and fair elections? | Are these Myanmar’s first free and fair elections? |
| In May 1990, Myanmar held its first multi-party elections since 1960 when the military dictatorship took power. Suu Kyi had returned to her home country two years prior to tend to her dying mother but found herself caught up in mass demonstrations against the junta. She formed the NLD and won a landslide victory in the 1990 polls. | In May 1990, Myanmar held its first multi-party elections since 1960 when the military dictatorship took power. Suu Kyi had returned to her home country two years prior to tend to her dying mother but found herself caught up in mass demonstrations against the junta. She formed the NLD and won a landslide victory in the 1990 polls. |
| Unhappy with its loss, the military annulled the results and placed Suu Kyi under house arrest. | Unhappy with its loss, the military annulled the results and placed Suu Kyi under house arrest. |
| Didn’t Myanmar already transition to democracy a few years ago? | Didn’t Myanmar already transition to democracy a few years ago? |
| Not really. The 2010 elections were internationally dismissed as fraudulent. The NLD boycotted the polls. | Not really. The 2010 elections were internationally dismissed as fraudulent. The NLD boycotted the polls. |
| In 2011, decades of complete military autocracy ostensibly ended when Thein Sein — a former general and prime minister under the junta — was installed as president. The government released Suu Kyi from house arrest and freed hundreds of political prisoners. Peaceful demonstrations were allowed and the NLD re-registered as a political party. | In 2011, decades of complete military autocracy ostensibly ended when Thein Sein — a former general and prime minister under the junta — was installed as president. The government released Suu Kyi from house arrest and freed hundreds of political prisoners. Peaceful demonstrations were allowed and the NLD re-registered as a political party. |
| However, the military still automatically reserves a quarter of seats in both houses of parliament under the constitution it drafted and the powerful interior, defence and border affairs ministerial posts are reserved for men in uniform. The generals also retain a veto over constitutional reform. | However, the military still automatically reserves a quarter of seats in both houses of parliament under the constitution it drafted and the powerful interior, defence and border affairs ministerial posts are reserved for men in uniform. The generals also retain a veto over constitutional reform. |
| Amnesty International said in a report last month that there are at least 91 prisoners of conscience behind bars. “As elections on 8 November draw near, the authorities are sliding back into old ways – harassing and arresting peaceful activists simply for disagreeing with, or criticising the government,” it said. | Amnesty International said in a report last month that there are at least 91 prisoners of conscience behind bars. “As elections on 8 November draw near, the authorities are sliding back into old ways – harassing and arresting peaceful activists simply for disagreeing with, or criticising the government,” it said. |
| Why did the military reform? | Why did the military reform? |
| Hard to tell with Yangon being one of the most secretive authorities on the globe. | Hard to tell with Yangon being one of the most secretive authorities on the globe. |
| Jeffrey Bader of Brookings Institution in Washington said after a trip in 2012 that one important factor was a desire to escape a growing dependence on China, as sanctions prevented investment from the west. | Jeffrey Bader of Brookings Institution in Washington said after a trip in 2012 that one important factor was a desire to escape a growing dependence on China, as sanctions prevented investment from the west. |
| Following the reforms, the US and EU relaxed sanctions and the economy grew rapidly. Foreign cars cruise around Yangon and KFC opened in June, the first major western fast-food chain. Concrete hotels and condos rise from the graves of old buildings. | |
| Will the military nullify the results again if it loses? | Will the military nullify the results again if it loses? |
| Also hard to tell, but analysts say its less likely than in 1990. | Also hard to tell, but analysts say its less likely than in 1990. |
| An International Crisis Group report said the months between the election and the appointment of the president “will be a time of considerable uncertainty, possible tension, and intense behind-the-scenes negotiation”. | An International Crisis Group report said the months between the election and the appointment of the president “will be a time of considerable uncertainty, possible tension, and intense behind-the-scenes negotiation”. |
| “The commander-in-chief has voiced support for the democratic electoral process and has undoubtedly foreseen the prospect of strong support for the NLD. But this does not mean he would be comfortable with all the potential implications of such an outcome,” it said, in reference to the highly influential Gen Min Aung Hlaing. | “The commander-in-chief has voiced support for the democratic electoral process and has undoubtedly foreseen the prospect of strong support for the NLD. But this does not mean he would be comfortable with all the potential implications of such an outcome,” it said, in reference to the highly influential Gen Min Aung Hlaing. |
| Are the polls really going to be free and fair? | Are the polls really going to be free and fair? |
| For the first time, the European Union will observe the elections, sending 150 monitors from all 28 member states to the country of 51 million. Journalists and academics are also flooding into the country. So we should have a rough idea. | |
| There have been several non-democratic events in the lead up to the polls, notably the disenfranchisement of around half a million Muslim Rohingya, a persecuted and stateless minority. The NLD has also expressed concerns about the electoral roll and the political sympathies of the election commissioner, the senior official overseeing the vote. | There have been several non-democratic events in the lead up to the polls, notably the disenfranchisement of around half a million Muslim Rohingya, a persecuted and stateless minority. The NLD has also expressed concerns about the electoral roll and the political sympathies of the election commissioner, the senior official overseeing the vote. |
| A United Nations rights investigator said last week that restrictions on the rights to freedom of expression, assembly and association – including arrests and excessive use of force against protesters – put genuine elections at risk. | A United Nations rights investigator said last week that restrictions on the rights to freedom of expression, assembly and association – including arrests and excessive use of force against protesters – put genuine elections at risk. |
| Polling stations will also be absent from large areas of the country ridden by conflict after Yangon failed to sign a comprehensive ceasefire. | Polling stations will also be absent from large areas of the country ridden by conflict after Yangon failed to sign a comprehensive ceasefire. |