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Aung San Suu Kyi supporters confident after Myanmar's historic election Aung San Suu Kyi hints at victory in Myanmar poll despite delays
(about 4 hours later)
Supporters of Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi have been celebrating after the country held its first free nationwide election in 25 years, the biggest step yet in a journey to democracy from dictatorship. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has hinted at victory in Myanmar’s first free elections for decades despite an unexpected delay in the release of the results.
In her first comments after Sunday’s elections, Suu Kyi told a crowd gathered at the National League for Democracy (NLD) party headquarters in Yangon that the results would not be announced as soon as had been expected, “but I think you all have the idea of the results”.
“It is still a bit early to congratulate our candidates who will be the winners,” she said. “I want to remind you all that even candidates who didn’t win have to accept the winners, but it is important not to provoke the candidates who didn’t win to make them feel bad.”
The south-east Asian nation’s election commission had been due to reveal preliminary results at 9am on Monday morning but delayed until the afternoon.
The Union Election Commission said its chairman would give a media conference at 3pm local time (8.30am GMT) with results announced at 6pm. The final tally was expected on Tuesday.
A big crowd of supporters of Suu Kyi’s NLD party had gathered on Sunday evening at the group’s headquarters in Yangon, formerly Rangoon under the British empire, to cheer, dance and wave red flags.
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Although the outcome of the poll will not be clear for at least 36 hours, a large crowd blocked a busy road beside the headquarters of Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy in Yangon as they cheered and waved red flags. As many polling stations counted into the early hours of Monday morning, there were signs that the NLD was set for a convincing victory.
The NLD is expected to win the largest share of votes cast by an electorate of about 30 million, who chose from thousands of candidates standing for parliament and regional assemblies. House speaker and former ruling party chair Shwe Mann conceded defeat in the central Bago region. Other districts showed NLD gains although it was hard to tell if they represented the rest of the country.
But a legacy of military rule means Suu Kyi, who led the campaign for democracy, cannot become president. Whatever the result, Myanmar is heading into a period of uncertainty over how she and other ascendant parties negotiate sharing power with the still-dominant military. The official Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper ran its Monday headline as “Dawn of a New Era” and said turnout was estimated at 70%, with 30 million eligible voters.
A pariah state until a few years ago, Myanmar has had little experience organising elections. Some 10,000 observers were enlisted to scrutinise the process. Early indications from the monitors were that voting was mostly trouble-free, with only isolated irregularities. “We’re leading the race but we can’t say for sure we’ll win two-thirds of the seats in parliament. That would enable us to form an independent government without forming a coalition,” said NLD senior official and spokesman Han Tha Myint.
“From the dozens of people we have spoken, everybody feels they have been able to vote for whoever they wanted to in security and safety,” said Durudee Sirichanya, one of the international observers. The once-outlawed NLD is expected to win the popular vote, although the Nobel peace prize laureate, who spent much of the past quarter-century under house arrest, is barred from the presidency by a junta-drafted constitution.
In the city of Mandalay, about 100 people were prevented from voting after officials discovered they were outsiders who had been mysteriously added to the register and then bussed to the polling station. Yet a key concern, that the army generals would annul the vote as they did when Suu Kyi won a landslide in 1990, was rebuffed in the capital, Naypyitaw, where military commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing said there was “no reason not to accept the election results”, according to state media.
The main concern about the election’s fairness arose before the poll. Activists estimated that up to 4 million people, mostly citizens working abroad, would not be able to vote. Labelled an “outpost of tyranny” by the United States only ten years ago, Myanmar has reformed by releasing most political prisoners and allowing an independent press to operate. Although elections in 2010, which saw current president Thein Sein come to power, were widely dismissed as a sham.
Religious tension, fanned by Buddhist nationalists whose actions have intimidated Myanmar’s Muslim minority, also marred the election campaign. Among those excluded from voting were around a million Rohingya Muslims. The 2015 polls were observed by around 10,000 election monitors, including many from the European Union and United Nations, and early indications from monitors suggested a largely transparent process.
John Kerry, the US secretary of state, said in a statement the election was an important step forward, but added it was “far from perfect”. Yet the main concerns over fairness were raised ahead of election day, with an estimated 4 million Burmese living abroad unable to vote and the exclusion of around a million Rohingya Muslims, a stateless and persecuted minority.
Important impediments remain to a fully democratic civilian government, Kerry said, “including the reservation of a large number of unelected seats for the military; the disfranchisement of groups of people who voted in previous elections, including the Rohingya; and the disqualification of candidates based on arbitrary application of citizenship and residency requirements”. The army has also enshrined its power in the constitution – reserving 25% of parliament seats – keeping the most powerful ministerial portfolios and banning Suu Kyi from the presidency as she has foreign family members. Her late husband was a British academic and she has two British sons.
Still, there was excitement among voters about the first general election since a quasi-civilian government replaced military rule in 2011, which was widely seen as a referendum on the country’s unsteady reform process. Jason Carter, grandson of former US president Jimmy Carter and international election observer, said monitors would release a full evaluation “including the political context in which this election is occurring” on Tuesday.
“I’ve done my bit for change, for the emergence of democracy,” said Daw Myint, a 55-year-old former teacher, after she cast her vote for the NLD in Yangon.
Many voters doubted the military would accept the outcome of the vote if the NLD wins.
But in the capital, Naypyitaw, military commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing said there would be no repeat of the last free vote in 1990, when Suu Kyi won but the army ignored the result. She spent most of the next 20 years under house arrest before her release in 2010.
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“If the people choose them (the NLD), there is no reason we would not accept it,” the senior general told reporters. Many in the country are worried about the post-election period, where Suu Kyi — who boldly announced last week she would be “above the president” — will negotiate power sharing with the military.
Results from the election are expected to come in slowly, with a clear overall picture not likely to emerge until Tuesday morning. Thai security forces along the Myanmar border, where multiple ethnic conflicts have raged, have been put on alert in preparation for violence following the election, the Bangkok Post reported in neighbouring Thailand.
Suu Kyi is barred from taking the presidency herself by provisions of a constitution written by the military junta to preserve its power. Polls were cancelled in nearly 600 village areas, mostly in the conflict-affected states of Kachin and Shan, the election commission said, adding that a lack of security would not allow for transparent polling.
But if she wins a majority and is able to form Myanmar’s first democratically elected government since the early 1960s, Suu Kyi says she will be the power behind the new president regardless of a constitution she has derided as “very silly”. John Kerry, the US secretary of state, said in a statement that the election was an important step forward, but added it was “far from perfect”.
Suu Kyi started the contest with a sizeable handicap: even if the vote is deemed free and fair, one-quarter of parliament’s seats will still be held by unelected military officers. “A peaceful post-election period is crucial for stability and maintaining the confidence of the people in the credibility of the electoral process and the overall political transition,” he said.
To form a government and choose its own president, the NLD on its own or with allies must win more than two-thirds of all seats up for grabs. The ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party would need far fewer seats if it secured the backing of the military bloc in parliament. As the army is guaranteed blocs in parliament, Suu Kyi must take 67% of all contested seats in order to gain a majority. If her party does that and forms a government, it will be the first democratically elected since the early 1960s.
But many voters were expected to spurn the USDP, created by the former junta and led by former military officers, because it is linked with the brutal dictatorship that installed president Thein Sein’s nominally civilian government in 2011. Suu Kyi has promised to amend a constitution she has denounced as “very silly”.
An inconclusive result could thrust some of the 91 parties contesting the election, including many representing Myanmar’s myriad ethnic minorities, into a king-maker role. The incumbent Union Solidarity and Development Party would need far fewer seats as it backed by of the military. Some 91 parties have contested the election in a country of around 51 million people.
Even if the NLD is victorious, the military will retain significant power. It is guaranteed key ministerial positions, the constitution gives it the right to take over the government under certain circumstances, and it also has a grip on the economy through holding companies.