The Guardian view on Myanmar’s elections: a notable victory, but tough times still lie ahead
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Version 0 of 1. Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy have won a major victory, although how complete it is will not be clear for some days. But it is not too early to say that it is a fitting triumph and a reward for a life selflessly devoted to the task of restoring democracy to her country. Aung San Suu Kyi is barred from the nation’s executive presidency, but will now almost certainly be able to put forward a candidate for the post. She has said that she would lead the government whether or not she is the president. But the really important question is not whether she can form a government, but whether she can rule. This is not, at bottom, a constitutional issue, but one concerning military, economic and social power. The constitution needs to be changed, and until it is Myanmar will not have full democracy. Yet it is the broader balance between two centres of power – the democratic, rooted in parliament, and the military, entrenched in the state’s institutions – that matters most. Aung San Suu Kyi and her party had already profoundly changed that balance, although the military’s own reforms also played a part. For example, the era in which electoral success could simply be negated by the army has passed. So has the time when a general election could be crudely fixed, as has also happened in the past. Now the NLD can claim to represent the people in a way it could not when it had only a small number of seats won in byelections, which is where it stood previously, after declining to contest the last general election in 2010. The relative legitimacy of the NLD and the military-dominated institutions of the Myanmar state has shifted even more toward the former. But that does not mean that the military class, with its control of the security forces, its huge economic holdings, and a substantial social constituency, much of which is not in uniform, is on the ropes. The political contest is now more subtle but no less sharp. The military class and Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD will continue in an uneasy and rivalrous relationship. It will have aspects of both reluctant partnership and a continuing struggle. There will be bargaining and manoeuvring in the months between now and March, when the next president will be chosen. But the conflict in the longer run will be about who can cope with the pent-up pressure for change and improvement in Myanmar society. Sunday’s lengthy queues of orderly and patient voters were a symptom of that pressure: the people of Myanmar were giving notice, more confidently and more forcefully than in the past, that they must and will have change. They want it in their economic circumstances, in more and better jobs, and better conditions. They want it in the distribution of wealth, ending the privileged and corrupt cornering of assets by a narrow class. They want it in the law, to prevent such activities as the seizure of farmland for development without fair compensation and with no effective redress. They want the wars that have sapped Myanmar since independence to stop, for good. They want roads, bridges and pipelines – but without selling the country out to the Chinese or other foreign investors. And yes, they want democracy, to be able to choose their governments and shape their policies through the vote. They want a lot, in other words. Politics in Myanmar in the future will be about who can deliver and who is failing to deliver. There may be elements in the military who do not object to the NLD having a governmental role and bearing for a while the burden of this expectation, suffering a loss of popularity when, as is inevitable, there is disappointment. Equally, a partial political retreat would spare them the obloquy that would come their way if they denied the NLD its place in government. Their hope might be that as an inexperienced NLD flounders, the military side can build a more substantial popular base. Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD can rightly congratulate themselves on winning the election. Now comes the hard part. |