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| Myanmar election: Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD on course for historic win – live | Myanmar election: Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD on course for historic win – live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 3.01am GMT03:01 | |
| Oliver Holmes | |
| My colleague Oliver Holmes sends this dispatch from Yangon on the reaction to jubilation among NLD supporters: | |
| The state-run Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper ran an opinion article on Tuesday warning: “Every stakeholder in Myanmar politics to make wise decisions during this important juncture in the country’s history.” | |
| It went on: “Veering away from what we know to be the best course of action for the people could see the country descend into confusion and chaos.” | |
| Many are concerned that the months after the election could be chaotic, especially if the NLD tries to assert its dominance or if the military feels its influence is overly threatened. | |
| “The problems that have plagued Myanmar’s political system have stemmed from the exclusion of the wishes of a significant number of stakeholders. It is therefore important for some stakeholders to retreat and for some to take a few steps forward,” the opinion article said, without specifying if it was referring to the NLD or the military. | |
| The months after the election are going to see intense political manoeuvring by Aung San Suu Kyi and the army-aligned politicians, as a government is formed and nominations for the next president are decided. | |
| Under the military-drafted constitution, members of parliament choose two presidential candidates and the army appoints a third. After that, parliament votes. | |
| This will not happen until early 2016 and Suu Kyi’s comment that she intends to be “above the president” has antagonised Myanmar’s military leaders. | |
| The opinion article warned: “Decision-makers must accommodate the wishes of all stakeholders. This is important for peace as well as for national reconciliation. National reconciliation can only be achieved if it is completely inclusive.” | |
| 2.53am GMT02:53 | |
| The next official update on vote-counting is at 11am local time (3.30pm AEDT/4.30am GMT) but it’s likely that we will get a sense – albeit unofficial – of how far the NLD could progress via its own tallies. | |
| [Edit: this post was amended to remove a BBC journalist’s tweet that has been deleted.] | |
| Updated at 3.03am GMT | |
| 2.48am GMT02:48 | |
| More results announced | |
| The official electoral commission has announced the next batch of results. | |
| With 121 seats declared so far, the NLD has won 111. | |
| 2.30am GMT02:30 | |
| A reminder that, even if the NLD secures victory, Myanmar’s constitution bars Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming president. | |
| A constitutional provision introduced by the military junta excludes from the role all those with foreign children – Suu Kyi’s late husband was British and she has two British sons. | |
| But Suu Kyi has insisted that she will lead the country from a role “above the president” if the NLD wins the election: | |
| The constitution will have to change to allow civilian authorities to have the necessary democratic authority over the armed forces. | |
| She has also vowed to amend what she called the “very silly” constitutional provision, again implemented by the military, which reserves 25% of the seats in parliament and the most powerful ministerial portfolios for itself. | |
| Related: Myanmar elections: What is happening? Your questions answered | |
| Updated at 2.36am GMT | |
| 2.17am GMT02:17 | 2.17am GMT02:17 |
| My colleague Oliver Holmes is in Yangon and notes the “surreal” sight of state media leading on expected success for Suu Kyi and her opposition party: | My colleague Oliver Holmes is in Yangon and notes the “surreal” sight of state media leading on expected success for Suu Kyi and her opposition party: |
| Myanmar state media headline today says "NLD dominates". pic.twitter.com/3aZDuT8MOr | Myanmar state media headline today says "NLD dominates". pic.twitter.com/3aZDuT8MOr |
| 2.09am GMT02:09 | 2.09am GMT02:09 |
| Tom Phillips | Tom Phillips |
| Victory for Aung San Suu Kyi could cause “discomfort” in China, reports the Guardian’s Beijing correspondent, Tom Phillips: | Victory for Aung San Suu Kyi could cause “discomfort” in China, reports the Guardian’s Beijing correspondent, Tom Phillips: |
| Suu Kyi – a highly sensitive figure in China given her long and successful struggle against Myanmar’s authoritarian rulers – is unlikely to make many Chinese front pages in the wake of her electoral triumph. | Suu Kyi – a highly sensitive figure in China given her long and successful struggle against Myanmar’s authoritarian rulers – is unlikely to make many Chinese front pages in the wake of her electoral triumph. |
| But there are already signs of China’s discomfort at the prospect of her party’s win heralding an era of much closer ties between Myanmar and the west – and the United States in particular. | But there are already signs of China’s discomfort at the prospect of her party’s win heralding an era of much closer ties between Myanmar and the west – and the United States in particular. |
| An editorial in the Global Times, a Beijing-run tabloid, today warns that for Myanmar, tilting away from China and towards the west would be “a witless move [that] would ruin the strategic space and resources it can obtain from China’s amicable policies”. | An editorial in the Global Times, a Beijing-run tabloid, today warns that for Myanmar, tilting away from China and towards the west would be “a witless move [that] would ruin the strategic space and resources it can obtain from China’s amicable policies”. |
| The Global Times claims that Beijing, which for years was one of the junta’s few international friends, “won’t deem it unusual that Myanmar develops its ties with the US”. | The Global Times claims that Beijing, which for years was one of the junta’s few international friends, “won’t deem it unusual that Myanmar develops its ties with the US”. |
| It goes on: “Maintaining friendly and cooperative ties with China will be a rational choice for all its neighbouring countries. China should have full confidence in this respect and not be hoodwinked by western opinion.” | It goes on: “Maintaining friendly and cooperative ties with China will be a rational choice for all its neighbouring countries. China should have full confidence in this respect and not be hoodwinked by western opinion.” |
| The editorial echoes comments from China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Hong Lei, on Monday. | The editorial echoes comments from China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Hong Lei, on Monday. |
| “As a friendly neighbour of Myanmar, China supports Myanmar in all political agendas after the election in accordance with law so as to realise national stability and long-term development,” he said. | “As a friendly neighbour of Myanmar, China supports Myanmar in all political agendas after the election in accordance with law so as to realise national stability and long-term development,” he said. |
| 1.52am GMT01:52 | 1.52am GMT01:52 |
| Latest results | Latest results |
| Only a small proportion of the country’s 498 seats, across the lower and upper house, have so far been declared. | Only a small proportion of the country’s 498 seats, across the lower and upper house, have so far been declared. |
| By 11pm local time, 54 seats had been declared, with NLD taking 48 of those. | By 11pm local time, 54 seats had been declared, with NLD taking 48 of those. |
| But the NLD is confident of big wins across at least four states, and says it expects to have won 97% of the first 119 seats that have been counted. | But the NLD is confident of big wins across at least four states, and says it expects to have won 97% of the first 119 seats that have been counted. |
| NLD claims it has won: | NLD claims it has won: |
| Official confirmation is rolling out slowly, with the electoral commission set to start the release of more results in around 40 minutes’ time. | Official confirmation is rolling out slowly, with the electoral commission set to start the release of more results in around 40 minutes’ time. |
| 1.35am GMT01:35 | 1.35am GMT01:35 |
| Opening summary | Opening summary |
| Claire Phipps | Claire Phipps |
| Welcome to continuing live coverage as results roll in from Myanmar’s general election. | Welcome to continuing live coverage as results roll in from Myanmar’s general election. |
| Myanmar’s official electoral commission has so far declared only a handful of results. | Myanmar’s official electoral commission has so far declared only a handful of results. |
| By 10pm local time on Monday (15.30 GMT/Tuesday 02.30 AEDT), the commission said Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) had won 25 seats and the ruling party two, all of them in the lower house. | By 10pm local time on Monday (15.30 GMT/Tuesday 02.30 AEDT), the commission said Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) had won 25 seats and the ruling party two, all of them in the lower house. |
| There are 498 seats in upper and lower houses of Myanmar to be announced in a series of rounds. | There are 498 seats in upper and lower houses of Myanmar to be announced in a series of rounds. |
| This means there are hundreds more results still to be declared, with counting due to resume today at 9am local time (02.30GMT/13.30 AEDT). | This means there are hundreds more results still to be declared, with counting due to resume today at 9am local time (02.30GMT/13.30 AEDT). |
| But NLD supporters are already celebrating what they believe will be a landslide victory, claiming late on Monday to have made a near clean sweep of the lower house in four of the 14 states in which results have been counted (though not yet officially declared). | But NLD supporters are already celebrating what they believe will be a landslide victory, claiming late on Monday to have made a near clean sweep of the lower house in four of the 14 states in which results have been counted (though not yet officially declared). |
| The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) – the current ruling party, backed by the military – appeared to concede it was on course to lose control, with acting chairman Htay Oo, who was voted out of his own seat, admitting: | The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) – the current ruling party, backed by the military – appeared to concede it was on course to lose control, with acting chairman Htay Oo, who was voted out of his own seat, admitting: |
| We have a higher percentage of losses than wins … The results are not yet official but we accept any outcome. | We have a higher percentage of losses than wins … The results are not yet official but we accept any outcome. |
| Suu Kyi said it was “still a bit early” for congratulations, but told jubilant supporters: | Suu Kyi said it was “still a bit early” for congratulations, but told jubilant supporters: |
| I think you all have the idea. | I think you all have the idea. |
| This live blog will carry all the latest updates throughout the day as results come in. | This live blog will carry all the latest updates throughout the day as results come in. |
| My colleague Oliver Holmes is in Yangon and will be filing updates to this live blog and on Twitter @olireports. | My colleague Oliver Holmes is in Yangon and will be filing updates to this live blog and on Twitter @olireports. |
| I will also post key developments @Claire_Phipps. And please do post comments and questions below the line. | I will also post key developments @Claire_Phipps. And please do post comments and questions below the line. |