Dubai Airshow: Bigger, brasher and louder

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The Dubai Airshow was bigger, brasher and - with more fighter jet displays - louder than the previous event in 2013.

But there were question marks over whether the show would produce the headlines of previous years, and so it proved.

Three themes emerged from this extravaganza in the desert.

Airlines are pausing for breath in the pace at which they are placing aircraft orders, defence cheque books are being opened again after years of budget cuts, and the Dubai show underlines a shift in the centre of gravity for the aerospace and defence industry.

Two years ago, the Dubai show generated announcements for civil aircraft orders worth $206bn (£135bn).

Fast-growing Emirates Airline, Eithad and Qatar Airways were the biggest customers, but there were also orders from the Gulf burgeoning budget airline carriers.

Orders backlog

This time, Asian airlines provided some of the bigger news of the week.

On Monday, India's Jet Airways said it would buy 75 Boeing 737MAX aircraft worth $8bn, though this was really confirmation of a previous announcement.

The biggest single all-new order was from Vietnamese low cost carrier Vietjet, which is buying 30 Airbus A321s in a deal worth $3.6bn at list prices.

Airlines typically get discounts for bulk-buys and negotiations seem to have gone down to the wire, with Airbus delaying a formal announcement several times.

Did Vietjet get better terms because the show had been quiet? The deal was a "win-win" for both sides said Vietjet chief executive Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao.

There were other orders, but nothing to compare, say, with Boeing's haul of $101bn worth of deals unveiled two years ago.

"I think everyone's more than adequately ordered," says Richard Aboulafia, vice president at US-based aerospace consultancy Teal Group. "The Gulf carriers are still expanding, but the existing orders will do the job."

One constraint on new orders is that the production lines of Airbus and Boeing are full for years to come. Analysts at IHS Global Insight estimate that there is a backlog of 750 aircraft from Gulf airlines alone.

As Boeing Commercial Airplanes president Raymand Conner said, airlines may now have to wait for deliveries so long into future, with unknown economic and geo-political uncertainties, that a slowdown in the order pace was inevitable.

There were no orders for Airbus' super-jumbo, the A380, whose wings are made in the UK. Doubts about the aircraft's future refuse to go away, despite Airbus saying it fully committed to production.

However, there were, at least, positive noises from potential customers. Emirates reiterated its interest in a re-engineered A380 to make it more fuel efficient and possibly longer, or "stretched" to carry more passengers.

Turkish Airlines' chief investment officer Ahmet Bolat also said his company was very interested in buying a new A380 variant, although any order would certainly not match the 140 aircraft that Emirates has in the air or ready for future delivery.

However, Airbus is highly unlikely to commit to the €2bn ($2.1bn; £1.4bn)-plus development cost of a new A380 without firm promises of a big order.

'Serious conversations'

Meanwhile, announcements and news about defence deals came thick and fast - something of a surprise given the sensitivity of doing arms business in the Middle East.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia, fighting in both Yemen against Houthi rebels and as part of the US-led coalition against so-called Islamic State, opened their chequebooks.

Among UAE orders was a $1.27bn deal for an upgraded Saab surveillance system, while Lockheed Martin secured a contract to service fighter jet target and radar systems.

Among other orders publicly disclosed, was one from Lebanon, for an undisclosed price, aircraft from Embraer Defense & Security. And Boeing disclosed that it is in "serious conversation" with five potential customers for its Maritime Surveillance Aircraft, a long-range spying plane.

With oil revenues falling, there was doubt among analysts about whether Middle East states would be big buyers at the Dubai show.

But the worsening security situation in the region has encouraged states to spend, especially on urgent operational requirements, said IHS analyst Ben Moores.

The US had a huge defence presence with all the major firms on show, plus a string of high level officials and military top brass.

But there is frustration that defence firms, trying to adjust to falling revenues in the US and Europe, could be selling more in the Middle East and beyond if Washington would speed up regulatory approval for exports.

During a press conference, US Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James said she would look at how to speed up clearance of sales overseas.

The US estimates that exports in the 12 months to the end of September were $47bn, against $34.2bn in the previous 12 months.

But Boeing was among several companies to warn that some orders were going elsewhere because of US approval delays. It is causing "a lot of concerns" and "frustration" for companies and potential buyers, said Jeff Kohler, an executive at Boeing's defence division.

Economic diversity

One theme to emerge strongly from recent commercial and defence spending by Gulf states is how they are using the deals to put down manufacturing and engineering roots, helping to diversify the economies away from oil and tourism.

Saudi Arabian Airlines said it is building a one million square metre aircraft repair and overhaul facility at Jeddah airport after announcing a tie-up with Deutsche Technik, the world's biggest aircraft maintenance group.

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi-based Strata announced that it was building an R&D operation, becoming not just a company that builds parts for others, but one that is developing new manufacturing technologies.

Strata, which is part of investment giant Mubadala, already makes wing parts for Airbus and components for Boeing.

The move will promote technological development within the aerospace industry and the UAE's manufacturing sector as a whole, said Strata chief executive, Badr Al Olama.

They are baby-steps against the size of manufacturing investment outside the Gulf, but underline the ambition. That's why the airshow held a Futures Day, in which 3,000 UAE university and college students attended a series of events to promote careers in aerospace.

The UAE even has its own space programme (you couldn't miss it at the show) to send an unmanned mission to Mars by 2021.

A vanity project? May be, but it will suck in technology and expertise.

And it all began when the UAE decided, years ago, that aviation was key to its economic growth - and is why Dubai now holds arguably the most significant airshow in the world.