In a year of Trump and Carson, GOP governors struggle in presidential race
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Version 0 of 1. LAS VEGAS — When Republican governors gathered in Florida a year ago, they had much to celebrate. They had scored a series of victories in the 2014 midterms, and their ranks were impressively stocked with experienced and tested politicians preparing to run in 2016. The announcement Tuesday by Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal that he was suspending his presidential campaign tells the story of what’s happened since. What might have been the year of the governors, so far at least, has turned out to be a bust. Jindal was the third candidate to quit the GOP race, following Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Texas governor Rick Perry to the sidelines. Meanwhile, other current and former governors — Jeb Bush of Florida, Chris Christie of New Jersey, John Kasich of Ohio, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and George Pataki of New York — are all struggling near or at the bottom of the field. What’s brought the party to this point? Interviews with governors and strategists at the Republican Governors Association meeting here this week underscore the degree to which all politicians — whether from Washington or the states — got caught in the downdraft of a frustrated electorate looking to vent its anger. And it’s not clear when or if that will change. “From my years in Congress, I saw the rise of a conservative movement around the country that was frustrated frankly with both political parties,” Indiana Gov. Mike Pence said Wednesday morning. “I think the attraction of outsider candidates is an expression of that frustration. People are looking — at least at this point in the election — to [get] behind people who’ve not been a part.” [Jindal suspends his campaign, saying it’s not his time] Rarely had prospects for a governor emerging as the party’s nominee seemed as bright as they did a year ago. In the 2014 campaign, RGA leaders had touted their members as leading the party and, more subtly, as the grown-ups of the GOP. Governors, they noted, were providing models of successful conservative governance that could be sold in 2016 as a contrast to the record of President Obama’s administration. The governors as a group also were not shy about drawing a contrast with the party’s congressional wing, whose ranks — particularly in the House — were salted with tea party devotees who seemed to prefer blocking action in Washington to legislating. While Congress dithered, or in one case forced a partial shutdown of the government, the governors liked to claim they were the ones getting things done. But to date, there’s been no particular advantage to being a politician from outside Washington. A former party official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to be candid, said that, while governors haven’t been associated with the problems of Washington, their ambitions to go to Washington make them vulnerable to the same feelings of anger that are directed at the capital. “A politician who’s trying to go be president gets lumped in with Washington,” the former official said. “The people who’ve never held public office are not tarred with that brush.” Arguably, the first three presidential candidates to quit the race were not built to go the distance. Perry never escaped the terrible impression he made as a candidate in 2012. Walker thought that, after surviving a tough recall election in 2012 and winning reelection in 2014, he was well prepared for a presidential campaign. It turned out he wasn’t. Jindal never found traction on the right, despite everything he tried to get attention. Matthew Dowd, who was a senior strategist for President George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, said that the governors still in the race also haven’t provided a compelling rationale for their candidacies. “They weren’t able to adapt to a new environment and what the voters want this year,” he said by e-mail. “And when they did, their story line was already set.” Former Mississippi governor Haley Barbour said he could not remember a campaign with so many governors with good records running for president. But because nearly all have been competing in the same space for voters, they’ve had trouble emerging, particularly in a year like this. “You had so many candidates and so many of them were governors,” he said, “and then by the time there started to be a small amount of winnowing, the dynamics of the race had taken on a genuinely unprecedented direction.” Jindal made note of this as he departed the race, saying that in this “crazy, unpredictable year,” policy papers were anything but coin of the realm. Jindal, at heart a policy wonk, had a slew of policy papers, but they were lost in a campaign in which a frustrated electorate has been looking for vehicles through which to vent their frustrations with the political status quo. At one time, gubernatorial experience was considered ideal preparation for the White House, a training ground for a national executive and a laboratory for policy experimentation. Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush used their governorships as springboards to national office. That kind of experience has been a tough sell in this campaign. Bush has spent months describing his eight-year record as governor of Florida but has seen his support shrink. Other governors have found the same. Walker got no credit for having successfully battled organized labor and other powerful constituencies in the Democratic Party. Texas during Perry’s 14 years in office produced more jobs than any other state, but no one in his party seemed to care about that record. Christie has tried to convince voters that he has been a strong and conservative chief executive who has been able to work with Democrats in a blue state. Kasich promotes his policy and political successes in one of the most important swing states in the country. Both see some gains in New Hampshire, but each remains far behind Trump and Carson. [Carson team hits back at reports about his foreign policy prep] The candidates are attempting to differentiate themselves, but as one strategist working for one of the candidates put it Wednesday, “it’s a struggle for anyone to really get noticed when Trump says we’re going to bomb the s--- out of them and that becomes the story for 24 hours.” No doubt the governors in the race still believe that the electorate will begin to look more seriously at records and accomplishments rather than rhetoric and style as the first votes near. Bush said as much Tuesday. Pointing to the terrorist attacks in Paris, he told an audience in South Carolina: “We’re electing a president of the United States, a commander in chief of our armed forces. It’s a serious undertaking.” Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), who has endorsed Christie, told reporters that, as someone who was elected with no political experience, he understands the appeal of outsiders to frustrated voters. “But I can tell you that some of the folks who are the outsiders running are not the best people to be running the country,” he added. Saying the race “is far from over,” Hogan predicted, “When the voting starts, you may see Republican governors at the top of the pack.” Phil Musser, a GOP strategist, said by e-mail that it would be foolish to write off the governors at this point. “As the issue dynamics change yet again in the race, it’s too soon to write off a class of politicians in a race that is as unpredictable as advanced whitewater rapids,” he said. But the game plans that governors once might have thought would be successful are likely to need adjustment, given the state of the party and the attraction of Trump and Carson. Predicting more turbulence, Pence said the successful candidates would be those who offer a vision for the future but also those who understand the current mood. “Ultimately, elections are never about the past,” he said. “They’re always about the future. And I think that the candidate that will be successful in our primaries will be that individual who articulates the most compelling vision for the future that speaks into this moment in the life of our nation.” |