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Police cuts: Terror response warning to home secretary Police cuts: Terror response warning to home secretary
(about 2 hours later)
Police cuts expected to be announced in next week's Spending Review may "reduce very significantly" the UK's ability to respond to a Paris-style attack, Home Secretary Theresa May has been warned. Police cuts could "reduce very significantly" the UK's ability to respond to a Paris-style attack, the home secretary has been warned.
The advisory comes in a restricted document prepared for Mrs May by one of the UK's most senior police officers. In a restricted document prepared for Theresa May, one of the UK's most senior police officers said that mainstream policing was essential in the fight against terrorism.
It says the ability to mobilise large numbers of officers would "reduce very significantly across the country". The cuts are expected to be announced in next week's Spending Review.
Labour has warned that savings above 10% would be "dangerous".
Shadow chancellor John McDonnell said he had asked George Osborne to take police cuts out of the Spending Review, while shadow home secretary Andy Burnham has written to Mrs May.
The Home Office said it would not comment on a leaked document.The Home Office said it would not comment on a leaked document.
The BBC has seen key paragraphs of the document, Implications of the Paris Attack for UK Police Preparedness.
It suggests further cuts to police budgets would affect the authorities' ability to respond to multiple attacks.
'Surge capacity' concerns
BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg said: "We are left in very little doubt that there are very serious concerns about just how far the axe can fall safely on police numbers without having a significant impact."
It is expected that Chancellor George Osborne could announce cuts to the police budget of more than 20% when he addresses Parliament on Wednesday.It is expected that Chancellor George Osborne could announce cuts to the police budget of more than 20% when he addresses Parliament on Wednesday.
That is more than double what the document suggests is viable to keep numbers at the level required in the event of an attack.That is more than double what the document suggests is viable to keep numbers at the level required in the event of an attack.
In other developments:In other developments:
The government has committed to protecting the counter-terrorism budget. The government has committed to protecting the counter-terrorism budget. But the concerns in the document go beyond this specific budget.
But the concerns in the document go beyond this specific budget.
They are outlined in a letter to the home secretary dated 15 November and copied to the Treasury, Number 10 and the security services.They are outlined in a letter to the home secretary dated 15 November and copied to the Treasury, Number 10 and the security services.
It is understood to have been requested at a meeting of the government's emergency committee, Cobra, on the day after the 13 November Paris attacks that killed 129 people.It is understood to have been requested at a meeting of the government's emergency committee, Cobra, on the day after the 13 November Paris attacks that killed 129 people.
The letter cites worries over "surge capacity" - the need to mobilise large numbers of officers and resources in the event of a serious attack. The BBC has seen key paragraphs of the document, Implications of the Paris Attack for UK Police Preparedness.
It suggests further cuts to police budgets would affect the authorities' ability to respond to multiple attacks.
Mr Osborne and Mrs May met on Thursday to try to finalise spending plans for the Home Office.
Steve White, chairman of the Police Federation of England and Wales, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "We can barely cope now.
"If there are going to be further cuts to the police service, quite frankly, God help us. We are not going to be able to respond to something on the scale of Paris."
Analysis by BBC political editor Laura KuenssbergAnalysis by BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg
It's not entirely surprising that days before a big statement from the Treasury, concerns about the impact of the spending squeeze are made plain.It's not entirely surprising that days before a big statement from the Treasury, concerns about the impact of the spending squeeze are made plain.
And it's no secret that the Home Office budget is one of the departments in Whitehall that is not protected from the overall cuts.And it's no secret that the Home Office budget is one of the departments in Whitehall that is not protected from the overall cuts.
But in the aftermath of the Paris attacks, political concern over policing numbers has become acute.But in the aftermath of the Paris attacks, political concern over policing numbers has become acute.
Read Laura's blog in fullRead Laura's blog in full
The letter cites worries over "surge capacity" - the need to mobilise large numbers of officers and resources in the event of a serious attack.
It says: "It would be remiss of me not to highlight the impact further reductions in police force numbers would have on our ability to manage terrorist incidents of this magnitude, particularly if spread simultaneously across a number of geographical locations.It says: "It would be remiss of me not to highlight the impact further reductions in police force numbers would have on our ability to manage terrorist incidents of this magnitude, particularly if spread simultaneously across a number of geographical locations.
"Police forces across England and Wales have already seen a reduction of 40,000 officers and further losses will severely impact our surge capacity, which is heavily geared and will reduce very significantly across the country unless a different funding settlement is found.""Police forces across England and Wales have already seen a reduction of 40,000 officers and further losses will severely impact our surge capacity, which is heavily geared and will reduce very significantly across the country unless a different funding settlement is found."
The most recent figures show there are 124.264 police officers in England and Wales, not including police and community support officers, and 6,780 in Northern Ireland. Scotland has a minimum of 17,234. Speaking on the BBC's Question Time, Mr Burnham said cuts of 5% to the police budget over the next five years were "doable" and between 5% and 10% would be "difficult".
Labour's shadow home secretary Andy Burnham has written to Mrs May over the concerns raised in the letter.
Speaking on the BBC's Question Time, he said cuts of 5% to the police budget over the next five years were "doable" and between 5% and 10% would be "difficult".
He added: "But go beyond 10%, it's dangerous."He added: "But go beyond 10%, it's dangerous."
Mr Osborne and Mrs May met on Thursday to try to finalise spending plans for the Home Office.
Lord Reid, former Labour Home Secretary, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Cut police on the ground, and you cut the flow of intelligence which is vital for counter-terrorism."Lord Reid, former Labour Home Secretary, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Cut police on the ground, and you cut the flow of intelligence which is vital for counter-terrorism."
He said there were 142,000 police officers when he left his post, which had been cut to 126,000 - and that this could be further reduced to 115,000. He claimed the "whole police force" could be cut to 115,000 if the cuts go through - saying that same number was deployed in Paris last week.
Lord Reid said: "France had 115,000 police and security personnel last week in the one city in France - in Paris - equal to our whole police force if more cuts go through. The most recent figures show there are 124,264 police officers in England and Wales, not including police and community support officers, 6,780 in Northern Ireland and 17,261 in Scotland - a total of 148,305.
"They had 250,000 mobilised throughout France as a whole, more than twice the number of our police in this country. Draw your own conclusions from that."
Responding to comments from head of Germany's security service Hans Georg Maassen that the Paris atrocities were the start of a terrorist world war, Lord Reid said: "We're not at the beginning of it. It started decades ago."
'Stop risking safety'
Steve White, chairman of the Police Federation of England and Wales, which had already raised concerns about the issue, told the Today programme: "We can barely cope now.
"If there are going to be further cuts to the police service, quite frankly, God help us. We are not going to be able to respond to something on the scale of Paris."
Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner Kevin Hurley, former head of counter-terrorism for the City of London Police, said: "Equipment we give to armed response units is below the standard needed to take on people with AK-47s.Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner Kevin Hurley, former head of counter-terrorism for the City of London Police, said: "Equipment we give to armed response units is below the standard needed to take on people with AK-47s.
"What we are aiming to do is the same thing we did in the First World War, which is send single-shot riflemen against machine guns. We don't learn the lesson.""What we are aiming to do is the same thing we did in the First World War, which is send single-shot riflemen against machine guns. We don't learn the lesson."
He added: "The thing that concerns me is this government will not listen to its own senior Conservative crime commissioners who are telling them these cuts cannot go on, when I am saying, in the most Conservative area in the country, stop risking the safety of the public. Damian Green, former Minister for Policing, said the focus should be on reorganising resources effectively to get "more police out on the streets".
"The Paris police used military grenade launchers to take down those terrorists. We are nowhere near that capable, even in London."
Damian Green, former Conservative Minister for Policing, said the focus should be on reorganising resources effectively to get "more police out on the streets".
A National Police Chiefs' Council spokeswoman said it was in discussions with the government on its capacity to respond to an attack.